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Area in Gulf (92L) Up to 80%. This will likely be mostly a rain event on the east side (perhaps well east) of landfall later.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 229 (Zeta) , Major: 292 (Laura) Florida - Any: 979 (Michael) Major: 979 (Michael)
40.5N 62.0W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 998mb
Moving:
Ne at 38 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30942 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:21 PM

I agree, Lois. The GFS and GFDL did a horrble job with Frances: they underdid the strength and position of the High and it looks to me as if they are doing it again with Jeanne. If I remember correctly,the UKMET and the NOGAPS pretty much nailed it.

Chief Met Tom Terry from Channel 9 in Orlando just said that if he had to place a dollar on which models to use, he would put his money on the UKMET and NOGAPS because the GFS/GFDL do not do well with upper air environments. Why the NHC puts so much credence in these two models baffles me, when UKMET and NOGAPS have been pretty consistent run to run. Go figure.
Also....as you said, what we see with our own eyes is more informative than what the models "project". At least when we're looking with our own eyes, what we see is what we get.
And I think we are getting Jeanne.

Just heard that mandatory evacuations for the barrier islands and manufactured/mobile homes in Brevard County will begin at 6:00am tomorrow morning. Also a curfew (didn't get the times) will begin tomorrow and alcohol sales will be stopped tomorrow also.

Here we go again.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HurriKiD
Unregistered




just a note [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30943 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 PM

anyone see "ivan"....this morning....is it me or is it moving back south now? i am looking at radar and last few hrs i thought i saw a movement of around 160-140 or so....did he not like his stay in texas? just food for thought!

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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: define southern part of the ridge? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30944 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 PM

Quote:

do you mean the western part?




Yes. The part that moves over Florida in the loop.


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lois
Unregistered




funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Ricreig]
      #30945 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:23 PM

calm.. joking around a bit, discussion of what everyone is going to do depending on varous situations

either everyone is in denial, doesnt read discussion only advisories..waits for bryan at 5 or has a good handle on how to handle a hurricane threat

then again.. we are in the bottom of the cone and no one has a hurricane warning

are we all on top of it or is ignorance bliss?


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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: for scott [Re: Ricreig]
      #30946 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:23 PM

NEw path was on Channel 6 here. landfall 6 amish in melbourne florida. Ugh I am only 45 miles from there. EOC's are opening here and there. But these people seem to be very weary of these storms. State of Emerrgencies go in effect 12:01 am saturday and they inacted a curfew in brevard county. Stay tuned were gonna get another battering.

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lois
Unregistered




Re: define southern part of the ridge? [Re: MissBecky]
      #30947 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:24 PM

yes...that part is what may push her a little south of due west in the SHORT TERM

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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: define southern part of the ridge? [Re: MissBecky]
      #30948 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM

One question, Why doesn't the TPC site show Melbourne as one of its probabilities? They have Cocoa Beach then Fort Pierce. Thats a pretty good driving distance. :?:

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: define southern part of the ridge? [Re: lois]
      #30949 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM

Quote:

yes...that part is what may push her a little south of due west in the SHORT TERM




Thanks, Lois. I'm trying to learn how to read these maps and interpret them properly.


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jth off
Unregistered




Re: just a note [Re: HurriKiD]
      #30950 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM

Yeah many including Accuweather are forecasting Ivan to reemmerge into the Gulf on Monday and then go NE towards the same area he originally hit. Amazing storm. Focus is though and should be on Jeanne. I am starting to get concerned about a path across FL into the Gulf again.

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: FSU [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30951 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:26 PM

anyone heard from clark about FSU run.... i also agree that NOGAPS and ukmet did better with Frances on that "darn high" to the east and the FSU ran pretty close to NOGAPS for awhile even with that "bad data" from the dropsondes one day..... i am seeing a south florida landfall at this point..... and a possible GOM entry.....

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Have to tell all of you... I am not happy [Re: Colleen A.]
      #30952 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:26 PM

Well the NHC likes the GFDL model, which is basically a run off of the GFS data. CMC has come more inline again the the WNW-NW track with the NOGAPS. NOGAPS makes landfall just N of WPB across to Tampa, CMC landfall near Melbourne across to 25 miles N of Tampa. Both moving more wnw then NW nearing the west coast. GFS is still the same oddly enough so it cant be complety ruled out. I was hoping the 12Z GFS would be nudged alittle more w but it didnt. Also remember the ETA is across the state too with the NOGAPS and CMC. I havent seen the Ukmet yet or the GFDL. I would be the GFDL is kinda close to the GFS sinceI like I said it holds the GFS data. Ukmet would be the weigh in.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
H.I.R.T. [Re: Liz L.]
      #30953 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:27 PM

The HIRT (Hurricane Intercept Research Team) are heading down to Florida today...these are the guys who parked their Isuzu a little too close to the coast during Ivan...BTW, they're selling the destroyed vehicle on E-Bay, proceeds going to victims of Ivan...nice touch.

So if you see the HIRT truck parked on a beach near you...

BTW, any news of where they're sending Mr. Cantore...yesterday Frank P. posted a link to an outstanding article on the man...brought me to tears...I will find it and repost it on this thread shortly...if you didn't have the utmost respect for Mr. Cantore before reading the article, you will after reading it.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Hits in a season [Re: jth off]
      #30954 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 PM

To the poster who was wondering how many times one state has been hit, I just found this in an article on msn.com

"The only other time four hurricanes have been known to hit the same state in one season was in Texas in 1886, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said."


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Liz L.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
Re: just a note [Re: jth off]
      #30955 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 PM

THis whole day worries me, if we have to have it i want to be on the south side. been on the northeast side twice no more please!

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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: lois]
      #30956 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 PM

Quote:

calm.. joking around a bit, discussion of what everyone is going to do depending on varous situations

either everyone is in denial, doesnt read discussion only advisories..waits for bryan at 5 or has a good handle on how to handle a hurricane threat

then again.. we are in the bottom of the cone and no one has a hurricane warning

are we all on top of it or is ignorance bliss?


<Grin> What you say is very true....except: In this case, ignorance is NOT bliss, it is dangerous. That aside, a) I still invite you to register, you'd be an even greater asset, and b) we'd have a 'technical Colleen' on board

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Fri Sep 24 2004 12:29 PM)


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: for scott [Re: Ricreig]
      #30958 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:29 PM

Yes, the models have had numerous difficulties forecasting the strength and movement of the ridges this year. I remember watching the ridging to the north of Ivan building in very far south, farther than any of the models had it at that time, and thinking to myself that it probably wasn't going to take that NW/N turn until quite a bit later. The same was true with Frances. The ridge built in further south quicker than a lot of the models had anticipated and she never made it north of the Ft. Pierce area. It's definitely something that needs to be taken into consideration and watched closely. My other thought was with regard to the sharp north turn they have Jeanne making upon landfall. I could see that if there was a strong trough present, ala Charley, to pull her north then northeast. However, the ridge isn't really a square so once she reaches the "corner" she won't head due north. Instead she "feels" her way along the side of the ridge which is rounded, making her path more of an arc. However, like many have said it's best to not connect the dots so to speak, and to realize it's more of a cone than a straight line.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: funny ...no panic in miami that i have seen [Re: Ricreig]
      #30959 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:31 PM

Richard, lois cane, AKA bobbi, is registered...she can't log on at work...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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lois
Unregistered




joe's in love with Ivan.. going to be waiting for his return [Re: jth off]
      #30960 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:33 PM

til he's old and gray... waiting in the rain for raindrops that might have fallen from Ivan...out there somewhere

if anyone has a conduit around here to joey's brain tell him Lois would like him to focus on JEANNE


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: for scott [Re: Liz L.]
      #30961 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 PM

If it's going to make landfall in Melbourne at 6:00 a.m.'ish (42 hours from now) then Jeanne needs to kick in her afterburners soon. She's 520 miles from Melbourne and travelling at 9 mph. So, unless she speeds up to 13 mph, Jeanne will still be 140 miles out to sea at 6:00 a.m. Sunday...

Waiting for that acceleration now, which will speed her on the way... if it does so, then it increases the liklihood of making it across the peninsula and into the GOM.

AdmittedHacker

(still no witty phrase to insert here)


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lois
Unregistered




richard.... [Re: Ricreig]
      #30962 - Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 PM

im bobbistorm.. loiscane.. i use lois during the day for strange reasons

personal joke between me and someone

thanks...

and btw..that is BY THE WAY i have no real problem with the long term movement of Jeanne by the NHC.. only short term because as the high builds in with it.. it is moving faster and I think we are running out of short term

got my drift?

thanks. bobbi

phil..repost or tell where to find the link
and you are right.. he is an incredible man on many levels (knows the wv too)


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