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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Curious about FSU Model [Re: Kal]
      #30902 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 AM

Yeah, I'd be curious about that one myself...hopefully Clark will pop in soon and give us all a little insider info...

Kal, are you going to have a new superman avatar each day? LOL!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: scottsvb]
      #30903 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 AM

Quote:

Even though Im not a fan of the ETA it I feel has the right idea on the movement of Jeanne for THIS RUN.


Where exactly does one go to look at the ETA track? I don't see it on either the wunderground multi-model plot or the CFHC multi-model plot -- unless it's another one of those confusing models with more than one name/acronym (like the AVN/GFS).

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: for scott [Re: LI Phil]
      #30904 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 AM

I read Scott's forecast yesterday, and was thinking along the same lines with regard to Jeanne coming in further south and not tracking almost the due north that many of the current models have her doing. With Francis, the inability of the models to get a grasp on the ridge strength and movement had her tracking much too far north for a few runs. I think it will end up being the same with Jeanne. And I don't see a straight north track occuring either, more like an arc. Also, the GFS hasn't had the best track run this year, and therein lies the problem with many of the forecasts because I believe they're used in conjunction with the GFS grid.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine [Re: cjzydeco]
      #30905 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 AM

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Help please [Re: MikeC]
      #30906 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 AM

Could someone provide a link to the Storm Surge Zone for Brevard County.

I looked all over here:
http://embrevard.com/

and couldn't find it.

Thanks!!!


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: for scott [Re: Unregistered User]
      #30907 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:38 AM

Quote:

Where is the strong trough that is suppose to do that? Its just that its forecasted to move around the ridge and the ridge is suppose to orient in a more NNW-SSE fashion, which i feel it will be alittle flatter cause there is no strong trough it squeeze the ridge.




I agree, scottsvb. The trough over the central US looks rather unimpressive to me. The GFDL and GFS are overdoing its influence on the ridge. Such a sharp hook to the N and NE seems implausible to me. Both these models had the same problem with Frances. I think the UKMET is producing the best track right now...very similar to Frances' track. I'm not sure that Jeanne will enter the GOM, but I do believe it will track farther west than the current NHC forecast, unfortunately for Florida.

We should not be focusing on the NHC's exact track anyway. It constantly bothers me that local TV stations place so much emphasis on this track. TWC does a much better job by not displaying the exact forecast track, but rather only "cone of error." Focusing too much on the exact forecast track has caused many people here in west-central Florida to believe that Charley was a bad forecast because of the slight NNE turn toward landfall. In reality, it was an excellent forecast by the NHC and within the typical margin of error.

Ronn


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: for scott [Re: LI Phil]
      #30908 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:39 AM

LI Phil would you stop typing and start sucking again!


You and Scottsvb keep putting it to close to wxmanrichie and I not to mention the other handfull of So. Floridians on this board.

Hey if you believe in rabbit hexes I can believe in the sucking idea.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Help please [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30909 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 AM

here is one set: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Intensity [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30910 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 AM

Steve, I'm just going to give a stab at this: I think the intensity will depend on how far west and south Jeanne is in the next couple of days, as the waters are warmer near WPB/Ft.LAUDERDALE than further north up the coast. Also keep in mind that if she crosses over Lake Okeechobee, the water temps there are in the 80-82 degree area, which of course would let Jeanne keep her "energy" as she moves inland.
Notice how the models are not taking that sharp north turn, it seems that they have rounded out a little bit.
I think that she'll make landfall as a minimum CAT 3. However, THIS part of the discussion really caught my attention:

Quote:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER HIGH/RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF MOST OF THE NHC MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS... ESPECIALLY THE UKMET...THAT ARE VALID AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE BACKED AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...SOME WEAK RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND IT OVER AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH MAY ACT TO FORCE JEANNE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON THE TRENDS NOTED IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.




Why did that catch my attention: because if I am reading this correctly (and anyone feel free to correct me) the NHC models have this High/Ridge further north than it actually IS based on the actual information they are seeing.
A "tad" to the west is more than that: 30 miles onshore instead of 30 miles offshore will make a big difference on how much impact Jeanne will have on the state of Florida.

Ok, now I'll take my "I Am Not A Meteorologist But I Do Play One on CFHC" hat off and leave it to the experts.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: for scott [Re: scottsvb]
      #30911 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:40 AM

remember that the NHC changes their tracks every 6hrs. Alot of mets change theirs the same from each leadforcaster in the NWS offices. They also coordinate at times with other citys NWS locations. That helps alot to get on the same page. JB tries to stick on a certain path but he does have the right to change his paths I feel every 12-24 hrs. I post mine up to 3 days out and my path is a very narrow 50-100 mile swath while JB usually does up to 200 miles and the NHC does around the same for a 3 day period. Should I change my track then every 12 hrs? Yeah I should but right now I dont feel I need to change it. I might though later this evening if I feel necessary. I do believe ANY FORECASTER needs to give the public 24hrs notice on a good 50 mile area landfall and that is just my opinion and that is very small area. They can go up to 100 if they feel needed. Reason the NHC or NWS dont like to say it will hit a certain area for sure is cause we dont want people to say " I thought you said 5 days ago it would hit in my town on my street at my address at my master bedroom location" Of course thats to the extreme and a joke but people do say things like that for forecasts more then 3 days out. Anyways thats why the NHC adjusts theirs tracks every 6 hrs in compliance to the data they recieve and the models. My 3 day forecasts are just best guesses. If they hold up then I did my best, if not, then what do people expect from 12x the amount of time I give out my landfall to the NHC. I always though post out a 24 hr landfall adjusted spot before landfall within 50 miles. That will come tonight if I feel I need to change it.

Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:43 AM)


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nandav
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
Re: for scott [Re: Kent]
      #30912 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:41 AM

I don't know much about these things, but what if we all got on the beach around Melbourne or somewhere and just started blowing .. could we generate enough hot air or something to make it go away??

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Help please [Re: cocoa Beach]
      #30913 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:42 AM

Quote:

Could someone provide a link to the Storm Surge Zone for Brevard County.

I looked all over here:
http://embrevard.com/

and couldn't find it.

Thanks!!!




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: for scott [Re: Kent]
      #30914 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:44 AM

Quote:

LI Phil would you stop typing and start sucking again!


You and Scottsvb keep putting it to close to wxmanrichie and I not to mention the other handfull of So. Floridians on this board.

Hey if you believe in rabbit hexes I can believe in the sucking idea.


Kent,
Just remember, you gotta know who butters the bread

It's all cool, Richard...little running joke there...

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:45 AM)


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Kal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 50
Loc: Florida Panhandle
Re: Curious about FSU Model [Re: LI Phil]
      #30915 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:46 AM

Sorry about the revolving avatars. I've never been completely satisfied with my image choices...until now. The fact is that Ivan knocked out my cable, and I've been under a government enforced curfew up until last night. In short, I've had a LOT of free time Phil. Good thing my honeymoon starts this weekend or I'd go stir crazy.

I look forward to any news Clark has from FSU.


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wthrispfm
Unregistered




Re: for scott [Re: nandav]
      #30916 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:49 AM

Hey...not a bad idea...I am the safety director for my company and in charge of "Hurricane Preparedness". My boss told me to "make Ivan go away" so I did a little dance, held up my "talk to the hand" hand and boom - it didn't impact Central Florida. Maybe if we all go do the coast and hold up our hands....

On another note - I love this site. I could not have survived advising my company (we deliver all over the state of FL) if not for you guys. Thanks so much!!!!!


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Curious about FSU Model [Re: Kal]
      #30917 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:51 AM

http://www.met.fsu.edu/wxstation/mainpage.html

Many of these links are not working, though...does anyone have a better link?


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: for scott [Re: wthrispfm]
      #30918 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:51 AM

Does anyone see this storm reaching the gulf ?

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: for scott [Re: nandav]
      #30919 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:52 AM

I think the only hope we would have is if we got every single politician in this country to make a long line up and down the east coast of Florida and blow all THEIR hot air towards Jeanne. That might work, but......

Then we'd have to hear hours and hours of who did the best job of blowing Jeanne away and the talking heads would do polls to see who had more hot air to blow than others.

I just don't see that working.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: for scott [Re: Kent]
      #30920 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:53 AM

Yeah Phil,

Start sucking this storm up that way. You need to help out another Yankee fan. I need my power on so I can watch the Yanks beat up on the Sux again this weekend.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
What If.... [Re: LI Phil]
      #30921 - Fri Sep 24 2004 11:54 AM

Jeanne threads the needle between the two Bahama Island chains to her north and south? Hmmm....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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