LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yeah, I'd be curious about that one myself...hopefully Clark will pop in soon and give us all a little insider info...
Kal, are you going to have a new superman avatar each day? LOL!
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Quote:
Even though Im not a fan of the ETA it I feel has the right idea on the movement of Jeanne for THIS RUN.
Where exactly does one go to look at the ETA track? I don't see it on either the wunderground multi-model plot or the multi-model plot -- unless it's another one of those confusing models with more than one name/acronym (like the AVN/GFS).
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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I read Scott's forecast yesterday, and was thinking along the same lines with regard to Jeanne coming in further south and not tracking almost the due north that many of the current models have her doing. With Francis, the inability of the models to get a grasp on the ridge strength and movement had her tracking much too far north for a few runs. I think it will end up being the same with Jeanne. And I don't see a straight north track occuring either, more like an arc. Also, the hasn't had the best track run this year, and therein lies the problem with many of the forecasts because I believe they're used in conjunction with the grid.
-------------------- Check the Surf
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Could someone provide a link to the Storm Surge Zone for Brevard County.
I looked all over here:
http://embrevard.com/
and couldn't find it.
Thanks!!!
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Ronn
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Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
Where is the strong trough that is suppose to do that? Its just that its forecasted to move around the ridge and the ridge is suppose to orient in a more NNW-SSE fashion, which i feel it will be alittle flatter cause there is no strong trough it squeeze the ridge.
I agree, scottsvb. The trough over the central US looks rather unimpressive to me. The and are overdoing its influence on the ridge. Such a sharp hook to the N and NE seems implausible to me. Both these models had the same problem with . I think the UKMET is producing the best track right now...very similar to ' track. I'm not sure that Jeanne will enter the GOM, but I do believe it will track farther west than the current forecast, unfortunately for Florida.
We should not be focusing on the 's exact track anyway. It constantly bothers me that local TV stations place so much emphasis on this track. does a much better job by not displaying the exact forecast track, but rather only "cone of error." Focusing too much on the exact forecast track has caused many people here in west-central Florida to believe that was a bad forecast because of the slight NNE turn toward landfall. In reality, it was an excellent forecast by the and within the typical margin of error.
Ronn
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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LI Phil would you stop typing and start sucking again!
You and Scottsvb keep putting it to close to wxmanrichie and I not to mention the other handfull of So. Floridians on this board.
Hey if you believe in rabbit hexes I can believe in the sucking idea.
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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here is one set: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html
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Colleen A.
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Steve, I'm just going to give a stab at this: I think the intensity will depend on how far west and south Jeanne is in the next couple of days, as the waters are warmer near WPB/Ft.LAUDERDALE than further north up the coast. Also keep in mind that if she crosses over Lake Okeechobee, the water temps there are in the 80-82 degree area, which of course would let Jeanne keep her "energy" as she moves inland.
Notice how the models are not taking that sharp north turn, it seems that they have rounded out a little bit.
I think that she'll make landfall as a minimum CAT 3. However, THIS part of the discussion really caught my attention:
Quote:
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER HIGH/RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF MOST OF THE MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS... ESPECIALLY THE UKMET...THAT ARE VALID AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE BACKED AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...SOME WEAK RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND IT OVER AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH MAY ACT TO FORCE JEANNE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON THE TRENDS NOTED IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
Why did that catch my attention: because if I am reading this correctly (and anyone feel free to correct me) the models have this High/Ridge further north than it actually IS based on the actual information they are seeing.
A "tad" to the west is more than that: 30 miles onshore instead of 30 miles offshore will make a big difference on how much impact Jeanne will have on the state of Florida.
Ok, now I'll take my "I Am Not A Meteorologist But I Do Play One on " hat off and leave it to the experts.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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remember that the changes their tracks every 6hrs. Alot of mets change theirs the same from each leadforcaster in the NWS offices. They also coordinate at times with other citys NWS locations. That helps alot to get on the same page. JB tries to stick on a certain path but he does have the right to change his paths I feel every 12-24 hrs. I post mine up to 3 days out and my path is a very narrow 50-100 mile swath while JB usually does up to 200 miles and the does around the same for a 3 day period. Should I change my track then every 12 hrs? Yeah I should but right now I dont feel I need to change it. I might though later this evening if I feel necessary. I do believe ANY FORECASTER needs to give the public 24hrs notice on a good 50 mile area landfall and that is just my opinion and that is very small area. They can go up to 100 if they feel needed. Reason the or NWS dont like to say it will hit a certain area for sure is cause we dont want people to say " I thought you said 5 days ago it would hit in my town on my street at my address at my master bedroom location" Of course thats to the extreme and a joke but people do say things like that for forecasts more then 3 days out. Anyways thats why the adjusts theirs tracks every 6 hrs in compliance to the data they recieve and the models. My 3 day forecasts are just best guesses. If they hold up then I did my best, if not, then what do people expect from 12x the amount of time I give out my landfall to the . I always though post out a 24 hr landfall adjusted spot before landfall within 50 miles. That will come tonight if I feel I need to change it.
Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:43 AM)
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nandav
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Pt. Charlotte, FL
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I don't know much about these things, but what if we all got on the beach around Melbourne or somewhere and just started blowing .. could we generate enough hot air or something to make it go away??
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Could someone provide a link to the Storm Surge Zone for Brevard County.
I looked all over here:
http://embrevard.com/
and couldn't find it.
Thanks!!!
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
LI Phil would you stop typing and start sucking again!
You and Scottsvb keep putting it to close to wxmanrichie and I not to mention the other handfull of So. Floridians on this board.
Hey if you believe in rabbit hexes I can believe in the sucking idea.
Kent,
Just remember, you gotta know who butters the bread
It's all cool, Richard...little running joke there...
-------------------- Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 24 2004 11:45 AM)
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Kal
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Space Coast
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Sorry about the revolving avatars. I've never been completely satisfied with my image choices...until now. The fact is that knocked out my cable, and I've been under a government enforced curfew up until last night. In short, I've had a LOT of free time Phil. Good thing my honeymoon starts this weekend or I'd go stir crazy.
I look forward to any news Clark has from .
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wthrispfm
Unregistered
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Hey...not a bad idea...I am the safety director for my company and in charge of "Hurricane Preparedness". My boss told me to "make go away" so I did a little dance, held up my "talk to the hand" hand and boom - it didn't impact Central Florida. Maybe if we all go do the coast and hold up our hands....
On another note - I love this site. I could not have survived advising my company (we deliver all over the state of FL) if not for you guys. Thanks so much!!!!!
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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http://www.met.fsu.edu/wxstation/mainpage.html
Many of these links are not working, though...does anyone have a better link?
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Does anyone see this storm reaching the gulf ?
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Colleen A.
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think the only hope we would have is if we got every single politician in this country to make a long line up and down the east coast of Florida and blow all THEIR hot air towards Jeanne. That might work, but......
Then we'd have to hear hours and hours of who did the best job of blowing Jeanne away and the talking heads would do polls to see who had more hot air to blow than others.
I just don't see that working.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Yeah Phil,
Start sucking this storm up that way. You need to help out another Yankee fan. I need my power on so I can watch the Yanks beat up on the Sux again this weekend.
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Jeanne threads the needle between the two Bahama Island chains to her north and south? Hmmm....
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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