RedingtonBeachGuy
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Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I get the feeling Daytona is on Jeanne's mind.. since most of the cain's this year have stayed left until just before landfall and then jaunted right, I see no reason why Jeanne will be any different. I look for her to head towards Cocoa and then jaunt to Daytona at the last minute up through Florida and out to the Atlantic at Fernandia Beach and back ashore at Garden City and back out at Hampton Roads. No way do I see her coming across Florida's mid-section anymore.
How did I get this? Her track makes a large 'E' over the last 2 weeks. Cocoa starts with C, Daytona starts with D and she has made an E - Fernandia starts with F and Garden City with a G and out again at Hampton Roads. It's the only logical answer.
No, just kiddin.. the trough is going to quickly accelerate her in a more northerly motion giving her the last second jaunt in at Daytona and up inland towards Jax.
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FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
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I asked the same question earlier. Skeetobyte told me that the 70 miles is from the center of the eye, not from the eyewall, so it's 140 miles across.
My question is whether the wind is exponential in falloff from the eyewall or it a constant degradation to the outside? And is the max winds of the storm considered only in the NE quadrant or do they consider an average of all quadrants?
Edited by FreakedInFlorida (Sat Sep 25 2004 07:32 AM)
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Okay I'll try to straighten the satellite/ eclipse mess out.
The satellites are in an eclipse every night right now, from 0345Z -0645Z (roughly). The eclipse is caused by the satellites being in a direct path between Earth and the Sun. The Sun's "noise" level overrides the satellites signal. None of the satellite's transmissions/ pictures would be received on Earth, so they shut the batteries off, by remote control, to conserve battery life.
I Do Not believe the batteries are replaceable. I'll check with FrankP tomorrow and verify that. Once the batteries die the sats float around as space junk. Or fall back to Earth as space junk chunks.
slightly off topic, but aren't these puppies in Geosynchronous orbit? which means when they fail, they're not going to fall back to earth for a really... really... really... long time (I'd say more likely to be swallowed up by the sun than fall back to earth 
back To jeanne... The explosion of convection on the *southeast and south side is frightening*
on the , I don't know what the dark color is past
red, but it's got a lot of it (-80 or colder?).. and it's about to go over
the bahamas. about the only good news, it looks like the dry air is still kinda keeping the storm from absolutly exploding in intensity at this point. The eye looks smaller and it's still tracking basicly due west. 26.3N and 75.9 West as of 07:15 Zulu.
Sigh
Mark
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'll give both questions a shot. This is off the 8pm advisory.
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 105SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 400SE 400SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
In a perfectly symmetrical storm over open water, yes, 70 miles from the center, in all directions.
They say "Hurricane force winds extend...", so that would be winds in excess of 65mph. Whether you have a 10 mile or 40 mile eye.
Jeanne's eye at last report was 40miles in diameter. So the hurricane force winds extend 30 miles beyond the eye.
Tropical storm force winds would extend another 135 miles beyond that.
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truth
Unregistered
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t- numbers up to 5.5/5.5 winds probably 115mph now , so might be cat 3 at 5am advisory
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BinCA
Unregistered
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Well, the good news is that if it makes landfall around 3-4 AM as the graphic suggests, that will be near low tide (4:42 AM at Cape Canaveral) which should help a lot with the surge. High tides, again at Canaveral, are predicted at 10:07 AM and 10:30 PM Saturday, 10:51 AM and 11:21 PM Sunday and 11:36 AM Monday.
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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So does that mean that an approximate diamiter of storm would be 175 miles? if not...please advise..BTW...i cant log in
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Mooshie, not very high at this time. The 3-4 hours without satellite, I can't detect Any Northward movement. If I zoomed in I might be able to see a pixel difference, but I don't think so.
To answer your question, if you are going to see Jeanne, you will see her after she makes a FL landfall, and that will be in less than 24hours, in the area between Ft Pierce and West Palm Beach. Based on probs from the 11pm advisory.
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truth
Unregistered
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right now the storm is 410 miles wide,the hurricane force winds are in the middle of that which is 140 miles wide
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meto
Weather Guru
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it is strengtning now. prob near 120. and it will be in 88 water temps down the road, very scary......
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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As found on the Naval Research Laboratory's website:
Q7. What is a satellite eclipse period ?
A7. Since GOES is in a geosynchronous orbit, the sun will yearly traverse a +/- 23.5 degree angle perpendicular to the Earth’s equator (GOES orbit plane). As a result, near the Vernal and Autumnal Equinoxes the Earth disk will periodically occult the sun, from a GOES perspective. Essentially, there are two eclipse seasons for each GOES spacecraft. Each eclipse season spans a 48-day period, symmetric around the equinox and the sun occultation lasts for a maximum of 72 minutes/day during the equinox. Each GOES spacecraft utilizes a solar array that converts sunlight into electricity in order to power the satellite. Each day during the eclipse season the sun is blocked by the Earth and sunlight is not available to the GOES solar array. Therefore, the energy needed to power the instruments is not available and the instruments are powered off. There is typically a 0–3 hour outage of imagery each day as GOES progresses through eclipse season. The maximum outage of 3 hours will occur at or near the equinox.
PS: We were joking about the batteries! 
Edited by Domino (Sat Sep 25 2004 08:11 AM)
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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OK....so I guess I am closer to hurricane force winds than I thought.
26.2N
80.1W
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Bloodstar: you are right on target with the sats. I just threw in Murphy's law for the space chunks.
SouthFLhappygal: No mam, we were just talking wind fields.
This link will give you a better idea of how the winds are set up.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/250241.shtml?
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Soflahappygal. Are those your coordinates? Where are you - Sea ranch lakes??
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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just inland from there....evacuated today
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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yes those are my coordinates
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Since 02:40 Zulu to 5:56 Zulu:
Pressure dropped 4mb (.9mb an hour drop)
Movement, .07degrees N... .70 Degrees west
Dunno how much has been mentioned about various model runs... but
the 25 0000Z run has the storm following a near track....
the 25 0000Z jma has it over Orlando
the 25 0000Z also has it doing an orlando run... and incidentally moves lisa to 19N 60W at 144 Hours (which may not matter)
the 25 0000Z shows 2 different solutions (really) the jeanne track keeps it very east... barely hitting the coast. however when the model run focus's instead on Lisa, Jeanne takes a very westerly track and makes it to the west coast before recurving.
the 25 0000 AVN also takes the storm to the west coast before recurving it sharply... and incidently has a low pressure develop in the bahamas (but isn't AVN notorious for making up spurrious low pressure systems?)
24 1200Z does a track as well.
Actually the 25 0000Z now pulls the storm all the way to the west coast as well before curving it.
what does it all mean? well, for one I'm not sure
where the plots are coming from on the various sites
but my eyeballs are telling me something different.
Taking a stab at forecasting and predicting (which do not take this forecast seriously beyond a rank amature who knows more about Diablo II than weather forecasting):
As of 5am Jeanne will be moving along at 14mph with movement just north of due west at 285 degrees windspeed will be bumped to 115mph. I also think they're going to change the tropical storm watch on the west coast to a hurricane watch at 5am (particularly with the model runs giving too high a risk to the west coast)
by 11am the hurricane will be straighten back out to a due west movement and increase speed to 16mph. Wind speeds will be bumped again this time to 120mph
I'm going to call for a landfall at Juno beach 26.8N 80.0W around 11pm with sustained winds of 115MPH. unfortunately I'm also thinking it is going to pass over Lake okechobee. and then shift to a true wnw motion 300 degrees. Tampa should get a sideswipe from the storm and and Bradenton is where the storm will exit out into the gulf for a brief period of time...
It will then start a hard curve and come *back* in around Perry Florida In Taylor County as a minimal Hurricane. It will weaken further and exit out somewhere near Savannah. clip the outer banks as a tropical storm, and then go away.
*gets his crow out*
My reasoning:
The models are onto something with the recurvature...but the models have, as pointed out, been very right biased with any motion of the storm. Looking at the latest models, there is no reason to doubt their accuracy, except I still think that all of the right bias hasn't left the models quite yet. In addition, with the heaviest convection staying consistantly on the south side of the storm the last 6 hours, I think that should continue to pull the storm in a more southerly motion than it'd otherwise typically go.
My intensity forecast, I think may be a tad light, but the dry air should, hopefully, keep the storm from doing a boom.
ok, it's late... I'm going to go ahead an rest.
be safe and good luck all
Mark
Edited by Bloodstar (Sat Sep 25 2004 08:32 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hope you are at least west of Hwy A1A, and better yet I-95.
If she happened to turn toward the south just a little bit you would be in the bad sector. Stay west of A1A and SR 611.
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SOUTHFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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Daniel,
I am west of A1A. I live acroos the street from the beach...aka A1A. I am a native of this area...so I know to take head to the "voluntary evacuation" and get out when they say to! I am east of I-95 but west of US 1. The only storm I have ever seem them evacuate west of US1 was Andrew and TG we didn't get hit. There is not any waterways west(or even near) of US1. I live at about 26.4N in Deerfield Beach. Sorry for rambling on....I just woke up and I am trying to get my bearing on the storm. I will be OK. I am prepared and have supplies(for what thats worth).
26.2N
80.1W
Thanks for the advice
Kathy
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay Kathy, you sound safe. I was just making sure.
BTW-her pressure dropped 2mb. It's now 958mb.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 25 2004 08:43 AM)
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