Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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Credence Clearwater Revival's A Bad Storm's a Comin is also relavent..........cool song but never wanted to live it........
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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animals then Doors
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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thanks for the relaxation
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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He's no Stacy Stewart, but Mr. Avila still gets the point across...
"look mummy, there’s an aeroplane up in the sky"
Did you see the frightened ones?
Did you hear the falling bombs?
Did you ever wonder why we had to run for shelter when the
Promise of a brave new world unfurled beneath a clear ??
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rubber Ducky
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 34
Loc: Cocoa Beach, FL
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Rog.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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What you see on Sat imagery is a surface trough or a frontal trough, the upper level trough is usually behind it. The storm is breaking down in the fight with the ridge but it is also pushing it out to sea. We'll have to see but as long as everyone is prepared for the worst it really doesn't matter though...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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floater wv loop
Jeanne appears to be undergoing an ...that could be great news, especially if she takes her time doing it...needs to be watched carefully now... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Liz L.
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: St Cloud, Florida
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11:42 am St cloud florida. winds are increasing here, coluds rolling in and out bits of sunshine poking though. this track keep changing and i am still not in favor of it. puts me on the northeast side not happy at all. BUt i am gonna stay on here as long as i have power.
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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
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One more question before I do chores, how is an good news? I am not sure what is going on with that.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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The is an eyewall replacement cycle in order for the hurricane to become stronger it has to weaken by taking out a eyewall.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hurricanes are made up of organized bands of thunderstorms and heavy rain that spiral inward toward a calm center. Each successive band closer to that center — the hurricane's "eye" — has progressively stronger winds than the next band out. The final tightly spiraling band around the center forms a complete ring around the eye in well-developed hurricane.This ring of thunderstorms is the hurricane's eyewall. It contains a hurricane's strongest winds.
For reasons scientists are still trying to understand, most intense hurricanes — those with steady winds blowing faster than 110 mph — eventually form concentric eyewalls. That is, a second eyewall will form outside the original one, surrounding it.
Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division says this occurs when spiraling bands outside the eyewall join together to create the second eyewall.
An eyewall replacement cycle occurs when the outer eyewall weakens the inner eyewall by robbing it of "needed moisture and momentum," he writes in the National Hurricane Center's Frequently Asked Questions about hurricanes guide. Without these necessary ingredients to grow, the inner eyewall will collapse. The outer eyewall then becomes the dominant eyewall, even though it's larger, and the replacement cycle is nearly complete.
The final phase of the cycle is for the new, larger eyewall to begin to contract. As this happens, any weakening that had occurred when the inner eyewall was replaced is almost always regained as the new eyewall contracts.
In some cases, Landsea writes, a hurricane coming out of an eyewall replacement cycle can be even stronger. This is what happened with Hurricane Andrew as it was nearing the Florida coast. It was at its strongest at landfall, right at the end of an eyewall replacement cycle.
Landsea notes that the discovery of eyewall replacement cycles in hurricanes contributed to ending Project Stormfury - the 1961 to 1983 government experiment to try to weaken hurricanes.
He says that the project's goal of "seeding" an outer ring of thunderstorms within a hurricane to cause that ring to grow at the expense of the thunderstorms in the eyewall is exactly "what was happening frequently as a natural part of hurricane dynamics."
You can read Landsey's complete answer on eyewall replacement cycles in 's Hurricane FAQ.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I would not bet that this is good news Phil, in fact... could easily be complete by landfall, which means BAD news as this usually ends up having the storm stronger when the is completed....
very good possibility of this being a Cat 4.... JB also mentioned this in his 10:30 update.....
as it stands, this one could be the worst of the lot....
not good, not good at all
this is some scary s&!^.....
Edited by Frank P (Sat Sep 25 2004 03:54 PM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I don't think this will be good news. I think it is a precurser to another bit of strengthening. Well, final preps done here. Secured more items. Add guide wires to the pole that holds up my weather instruments. Checked my computer in the back room that runs my APRS ham radio system. The 8:00am position is literally just five miles due south of my house. My prayers are with those down south This is not going to be good. If you are within an evacuation zone down south and anywhere near where the eye is currently predicted to be coming, please, get out now. This system does have potential. I do not want to alarm anyone; but this situation is rising in danger from how it looked before.
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Jim
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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not much to say about jeanne, easy forecast. i don't expect it to get to 4 unless something dramatic happens.. probably a solid 3-range hurricane (105/110kt). the track across florida should be similar to , but perhaps a tad to the right. since it's moving faster the wind damage should extend further inland.. rainfall ought to be 4-8 in most location, 10-12 where the bands train. another rainfall event across south georgia and the coastal plain of the carolinas is forthcoming as well.. gale winds may extend up to the georgia coast, but be mostly confined to peninsular florida. the tornado threat should be typical.. maybe more significant as the storm gets further north near the westerlies.
elsewhere, the surface low from has degenerated, with a weak mlc moving sw near the middle texas coast. most of the weather in the gulf is turning south or southeast ahead of jeanne.. not very suggestive of development right now, anything there is 2-3 days out from interesting activity, at least.
lisa forecast track which has been essentially northward recurvature for days now bending left.. expect it to be near 25/55 in six days or so, heading west. lisa should eventually reach hurricane strength... it's ultimate track is hard to determine.
wave behind lisa doing nothing now under heavy shear, new one poised to leave africa looking feisty now but a sharp upper trough lies ahead.. this section of the basin is essentially closed, anything in the area will have to get further west to develop.
waiting for a response to the westpac typhoon... we're around an -inspired lull right now (probably slow in jeanne's wake for a week or two).. there may be a shot at close in development given the currently confused pattern.
one last note is the occluded deep layer low west of the azores.. it has an impressive convective pattern, and were it a few degrees further south would be a prime candidate for a hybrid to tropical system.. as such with its near 40n latitude i doubt it can transition.
big deal today and tomorrow with jeanne in florida. not encouraging to think that the western caribbean action of the october week 2 secondary peak has yet to arrive. hopefully four will be enough for florida this year.
HF 1551z25september
just a note.. somebody mentioned a bad moon.. saw one setting around 3:30 a.m. last night.. waxing gibbous nearly twice the normal size near the horizon, and a dingy reddish color. didn't look friendly. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 25 2004 03:57 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The first real band is now coming in over Palm Beach County. Some power in the Lake Clarke Shores area has already gone out. I will see this band in a few minutes. Every message may be my last with power. just live on tv and actually said landfall will be in Northern P.B. County, Martin, or St. Lucie. They also said landfall sooner now between 10-12 tonight.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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The Dave Cave
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Loc: East Orlando, FL
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Thanks LIPhil! That is exactly the reason I use this board for supplimentary (and sometimes primary) information. You folks ROCK!
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"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro"
Hunter S. Thompson
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looking at the latest visible satellite loop imagery Hurricane Jeanne seems to have reached a CAT 3 major tropical cyclone. She is also still on a westerly heading at around 15 miles per hour and continuing to strengthen. Her eye diameter continues to shrink in size as the eyewall tops are getting colder. Outflow is also looking more symmetrical also. Some dry air advection is still occurring on her left side but it seems to be having no affect on Jeanne at this time.
I just conducted a thorough synoptic analysis including looking upstream into the future environment in front of Jeanne including water temperature. I don't want to be alarmist BUT current environmental conditions seem ripe for Jeanne to rapidly grow to a "possible" CAT 4 status before landfall. I also still see no chance for a NW-N turn that would spare Florida of a direct hit from "another" major hurricane.
I continue to expect more track shifting to the left as Jeanne heads for a landfall somewhere between Palm Beach and Fort Pierce on early Sunday morning. It's also possible that my Tarpon Springs to Bayport exit corridor into the Gulf Of Mexico may have to be shifted further south down the west coast of Florida, something closer to a Tarpon Springs to a Sarasota exit corridor. That would allow for a serious storm surge to occur along much of the Nature Coast.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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CatInOrlando
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Orlando, FL 28:24N 81:26W
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Thanks for so much information! I have been hanging out lurking at since sometime during . There was a link from the OrlandoWeather.com site to here, bookmarked you all on my 1st visit! Have been a frequent reader since. It is funny, no one else I know had heard about this site either. Now I am the "Official" hurricane information relayer for our group of friends  Keep up the good work, and I will keep our group here in Orlando "up-to-date". Looks like we will be "storm refuge" once again! (Cant quite figure out how that works, when by 's map, it will go directly OVER us?!)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I see that deep occulded low there too, it looks like it was once a cold front that has now stalled.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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MIAMIFL
Unregistered
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If the finishes before landfall -- How not a Cat 4 (possibly strong one)??
pegging the intensity changes in major hurricanes is tough to do. notice on IR that dry air slots keep getting sucked in, probably what is keeping the storm from deepening rapidly. if it takes a big shot while an inner eyewall is decaying, it could drop a category. i'm only going with what it has been doing.. slowly strengthening. yeah it could be a 4, but not the most likely scenario at this point. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 25 2004 04:27 PM)
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