52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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My thoughts exactly on the Tampa scenario. As fast as its moving I cannot see that north turn happening anytime soon.
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RickInRockledge
Unregistered
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A Cat 3 with a 20 ft storm surge is worse than a Cat 3 with a 6 ft storm surge. They're both CAT 3's.. they both do damage... but the storm surge can make a big difference and the Categorization doesn't adjust for severity of Storm Surge. It wasn't WIND that knocked that bridge out of place and it wasn't wind that shoved all those houses in P-Cola into the bay.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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This is true!
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Frank unless this radar loop is wrong or distorted somehow...I agree with you..looks like Ft. Pierce landfall to me...unless they forecast a more northerly motion before landfall. Looks like Broward County will just miss the hurricane force winds.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ivan pushed CAT V surge ashore as a direct hit. Jeanne has made the wobble/job and continues to do so and hasn't had the time to generate the surge of , regardless of her cat.
Surge will be significantly less, but this is still a Strong III and possibly a weak four when it landfalls...
It's going to be very bad.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 23
Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
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If anybody is lurking from Charlotte County, we are projected to be within 90 miles of the center. I'm not sure what that means in terms of wind speed, but I think we're in for another rough time here.
Please stay safe everyone.
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sthorne
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
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While it's true we won't get conditions here weather-wise, we have been pre-disastered. I don't think it would take an to finish ripping up the tarp-covered roofs and trailers that sustained damage.
Would a 3 + 2 = 5? Or a 4+2 = 6? Just (with waht little humor I have left) taking a line from the whitewater kyaking commercial.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Well if there is any good news it is running out of time to get much stronger.... probably has only 4 hours or so to bomb.... last recon had 951 mb (unless she stalls, and that is not forecasted).... so its pressure is not getting any lower at the moment, still it could get stronger as long as its over the warm waters... coming in at low tide will obviously help with surge...... maybe she stay at Cat 3.... hopefully.... still stranger things have happend.... a powerful storm and will do great damage....
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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psu's animation kind of shows a Melbourne hit to me if I am reading it right..
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I thought the same thing earlier today...I didn't think it was all that funny, though.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I think she could very well reach cat 4 status, but prob not offical because of the consevative side of the that has been shown this year. 1mb is nothing for a hurricane, it might have just be recorded at a slightly different location. In my opinion the or any hurricane forecaster agency for this matter should always go with the higher side to the wind forecast, it could make the difference between a CAT 3 and CAT 4 and the decison to evacuate.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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lilyv
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Utah
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It's also worth noting that even though was a Cat 2 lots of the damage hasn't been thoroughly repaired. Roofs, especially didn't need another storm this soon.
Cumulative damage may have a serious effect.
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RickInRockledge
Unregistered
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THAT is a great point! The cumulative effect of multiple storms feels equal to CAT 5. SHEESH!! We've been arguing with a California relative who happens to be in town for this thing. She said "give me earthquakes" any day! In some ways, I see her point.. the days of anxiety and physical labor dealing with plywood and lawn furniture are SO wearing. I was blessed to sustain no real damage in and and praying my luck hasn't run out with Jeane. But for my friends who already have blue tarp on their roof.. that Cat 3 might as well be a 5!! Best wishes to all! Getting power flickers now here in Rockledge (East Central FL). Gust of around 45 mph.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Rick, I certainly won't argue your well stated point... no doubt in my mind brought with it a Cat 4/5 storm surge... just tremendous damage, and reminded many that I've talked to on the MS coast who saw the pixs coming out of the panhandle of another great storm with a tremendous surge ... Camille.... I know I had Camille flashbacks for several days after watching to much TV on 's incredible damage... each hurricane is different... However, I have no doubt Jeanne will make its mark in history for the areas it will impact
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Keith,
If people haven't yet evacuated, there's probably no time left to do so now...so far has been spot on with each update; the difference between a weak IV & strong III? maybe 5 mph...
Unfortunately it looks like she's gaining some strength as she seems to be rushing to completion her ...fortunately, it looks like she will hit at fairly low tide...
Problem is, while surge may "only" be 15' or so, you've got some 30' waves being generated, and these beaches have been devastated...all the structures are weakened from and it won't take nearly as much to destroy stuff as it would if Florida hadn't already been thrashed 3 weeks ago.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Power starting to go out periodically. Same thing happened with .
I'll be offline within a few hours I'm sure.
Fun?
At least the cable has stayed on longer than last time 
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tfg345
Unregistered
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im guessing 130-135 when this thing hits. Thougts?
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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
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I agree with Phil. Cape Canaveral high tide 6:08 pm tonight and 6:28 am tomorrow. That should help with surge somewhat--yes?
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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7 p.m. Advisory indicates true westward movement since the 5:00 p.m. update... she stayed right at Lat 27.1. Speed over the last two hours was a little over 9 mph. Seems to have slowed just a tad...
AdmittedHacker
(still trying to think up a witty phrase to insert here, but too busy trying to plan the most appropriate course for panic right now...)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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late few frame of the radar showed a little hint of a wnw or north of due west motion... still, its gained just a touch a latitude over the past hour or so, not much... but some..
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