FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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OK Phil, humor me!!  The storm is outracing the trough to pull it northward, thus a more western track? Am I close?
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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If I extrapolated the track of the northern eyewall correctly.
At the current heading, the northern eyewall should come ashore at Vero Beach. The southern side of the eyewall would then come ashore at Stuart. That's a distance of about 30 miles.
These are approximations, and are not from !!
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Ronn
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Movement is still westward. I think the recent hint of a north of due west motion was just the temporary east-west elongation/distortion of the eye. I still have yet to see a definitive track change to the WNW. Most of the latitude gained today was from the early afternoon WNW wobble. The movement will change by tomorrow morning however, probably just after it landfalls between Ft. Pierce and Port St. Lucie.
Currently at my location, winds are sustained at about 15mph with gusts to 25mph. We are having some fringe rainbands, but nothing that has produced a measurable accumulation. Pressure has been holding at 29.71in through the evening. I anticipate a rapid deterioration here in the Tampa Bay area after 2am, with conditions equalling or slightly exceeding the impact of .
I will post updates tomorrow morning so long as the power grid permits. It seems to only take 35mph gusts to lose power here.
Ronn
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that Max may be right. High pressure ridge has again forced a more west northwest track, so Ft Pierce to Vero seems reasonable. Amazing to think that the eye is so close and there are still a few patches of blue sky. No rain at the moment. Highest gust at the house so far has been 33mph. MLB has recorded 48mph and they are just 10 miles to the southeast of my location. Clouds really flying by overhead. Bettye and I are all boarded up and ready to ride it out. I think that Cat II at landfall is about as strong as this one will get - still having dry air entrained into the system from the north. Edge of core is probably still about an hour or two away from us but is already moving inland down to the south. I'll pop in from time to time as long as the power holds out.
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
OK Phil, humor me!! The storm is outracing the trough to pull it northward, thus a more western track? Am I close?
I just PMed WXMAN RICHIE...we both agree this one is headed for the GOM...then...Panhandle.
Unless the has some supersecret reason for this puppy to turn when it does...
I've only got two eyes, but where is that trof? Jeanne keeps entraining the dry air to her west and the trof can't move...can't get into position...can't turn her north...
She's also moving at a pretty good rate of speed so inland areas will definitely feel it worse than .
Maybe I'm wrong, but I've become very good at reading the WV loops this season...they're not the be all and end all, but they are, IMHO, an amateurs best friend...
EDIT: Of course this post has to follow the one from ED...ready for my crow now...maybe ED can tell me why I'm wrong...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 25 2004 11:42 PM)
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RickInRockledge
Unregistered
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I keep thinking this is redux as far as the and reality. They kept saying Tampa while Radar was showing the move to Port Charlotte. Now Max Mayfield is sticking to a South Brevard/N. Indian River County landfall while Radar sure looks like a St Lucie Co./Indian River County landfall. They sure seem stubborn in the hours between their "official track" pronouncements.
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RickInRockledge
Unregistered
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Ok, so I posted that, and NOW the eye seems to have doubled in size so may get it right after all..that eye is huge now on radar. Pass the crow?  !!
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Earle
Unregistered
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At a particular location along a coastline, the total water level is determined by four main factors: (1) wind and pressure induced sea level rise or fall (i.e., the storm surge consisting of currents, waves, and sea level slopes); (2) the astronomical tides; (3) the annual steric adjustment of the ocean basins; and (4) fresh water input derived from precipitation, land runoff and river/estuary discharge. The sum of (1) and (2) is usually referred to as the storm tide.
So yes, the total water level will be less at low tide.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I think the inner eyewall is collapsing on the east side. Which means...well, I don't know what it will mean as it relates to final track of this storm, but it could weaken it a bit if its starting a new .
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davet
Unregistered
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I have seen the devastation you endured. Good friend owns Sunny Breeze Palms GC between Arcadia & Punta G. My heart sank & tears when I read your post.
God Bless...
You are correct... Faith is sometimes all we have
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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In an earlier post I gave an extrapolated landfall. That area, from Vero Beach to Stuart, was based on the long side of the now elliptical eye.
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
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Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Landfall in north Indian River County vs south Indian River County is a difference of less than 30 miles. Big deal if they end up being a little off. This is a hurricane with a 40 mile-wide eye! C'mon folks... Let's watch the nit-picking!
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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WEll, things are definitely picking up in Broward County....WXMAN how are things up in Bonton...i imagine you are getting 50mph+
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Remember the survey I posted earlier about making to the GOM?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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kirdona20
Unregistered
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I'm in west central Georgia, and our pressure has been rapidly falling. I think you are right and that ridge isn't going to have anywhere near the effect they are predicting. We've dropped from 30.06 to 29.90 in the last two hours. On a less scientific level, I get migraines with barometric pressure changes, and the worse the weather, the worse the headache. gave me a week long migraine that I just got rid of, and now my head is starting to hurt again.
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obshaz
Unregistered
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Raining here. A bit squally.
Volusia County has closed schools for Monday but haven't seen any info about DBCC. Also, mandatory evacs for anyone east of the Halifax, in low-lying areas and mobile homes. VOTRAN is helping to evacuate those people but will only be running until 8. Mandatory curfew in effect in the evacuated areas from 8pm-6am.
Be safe!
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Thanks Phil. Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.......................I think!!!! 
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Those of you with generators. DO NOT bring them inside. A woman died here 2 days ago, after doing just that. Her children were also injured. Not to mention the fact that their mother is now deceased!
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Ronn
User
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Loc: Seminole, FL
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Quote:
I just PMed WXMAN RICHIE...we both agree this one is headed for the GOM...then...Panhandle.
Such a path would not be good for my area. People will be caught off guard if Jeanne tracks farther south and brings hurricane force gusts to my county. There is ONLY a voluntary evacuation for mobile home residents in Pinellas County, even though we are under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch.
I think the 's 5pm track handles the influence of the trough better than the previous forecasts. Their turn to the NW and N is not as sharp as it was before.
I agree that the trough in the central US is not very impressive. I think the models have consistently overdone its influence on the ridge north of Jeanne. In fact, throughout this season, the models have consistently had a rightward bias in the storms that have affected Florida. With this said, all the trough must do is weaken the ridge enough to allow a NW to N motion. I think this will happen. The has by far been the best performing model up to this point with its consistently farther south track. I see no reason to disagree with it now. Jeanne may enter the GOM, but will not track any farther west than , in my opinion.
I'm not a met, but that is the best I can make of the current situation.
Ronn
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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wind picking up in Cape Canaveral. I am really glad that high tide has passed. The water is in the parking areas of some of the streets here. Not a lot of rain. My brother in PT St John had a small tornado about 45 minutes ago
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