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#Sam heading NW still a Major and Bermuda should watch. Elsewhere, fish spinning persists from a very active Main Development Region.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nicholas) , Major: 28 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1082 (Michael) Major: 1082 (Michael)
15.2N 51.4W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 952mb
Moving:
Nw at 8 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Official Cat 3 at landfall [Re: Frank P]
      #32480 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM

Ease up everyone! Here's an earlier post ....
Quote:

In case anyone had any doubts..............

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1200 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004

AROUND 1150 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND JUST EAST OF STUART FLORIDA...NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST.

RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ONBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE WAS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT LANDFALL...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 120 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN




--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32481 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM

great stuff Shana - thanks

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Need Advice [Re: danielw]
      #32482 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM

Ok, In Pinellas County FL, Very close to Tampa Bay, I am seriously debating with a few friends going and getting some sand in trash bags and doing a basic sandbagging of the house, During Frances, the watere made it to the back porch, I'm thinking this will be worse, particularly the furtehr south it treks...

what's the best way to sandbag the place, and yes
if it looks like it's going south of me, I'm going to evac... though i just drove by the shelters near me, they're all closed....

links or thoughts would be MOST appriecated
thanks!

Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: Several Questions/Comments [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32483 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM

Thanks Skeet!

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: Staggy]
      #32484 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:28 AM

That's pretty much what happened with Charley, too. All right, I gotta take a break, the dog's mad at me.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32485 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:28 AM

Nicely put Scott, as always.

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: LI Phil]
      #32486 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Got this message in a PM, any help would be appreciated:

My husband is scheduled to go to West Palm on Monday. Are the airports closed as of now?

Any news about the WPB power outages?

Thanks




Posted this one page ago...trying to help...but maybe I'll just call it a night...




WPB Airport website is offline, but check http://www.pbia.org/ tomorrow.

edited to add: Also, check the tv station list for live feeds, they may answer ???s

'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32487 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM

>>> Beer anyone?

Heh...somehow I pictured scott as the rob lowe character from "St. Elmo's Fire".....

Folks, sorry for the see saw ride today and tonight...You're in more than capable hands...I've been on these boards since 10am and I'm mopped...to anyone I've offended sorry, it probably has to do with lack of food & sleep...to anyone I may have helped, I try...to anyone who's just found this board...we really do rock...not my finest hour but MIKE C is the bomb, JOHN C is too & Ed Dunham will forget more about weather than you will ever know....HanKFranK and Coop still rock!

Colleen, Frank P, Skeet, Luis, Danny, A bunch of guys named Rich or derivations thereof, Kevin, Scott (and some derivations thereof), mbfly, and countless HUNDREDS I'm forgetting make these boards what they are....

In the immortal words of Homer J. Simpson...mmmmmmhhh......sleeep

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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RickInRockledge
Unregistered




Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: scottsvb]
      #32488 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM

Thanks for the clarification, Scott. I know it's not always the best way to spot a trend.. staring at the radar loops.. Selfishly, my area gets less impact the more due west she continues. Less impact meaning, 80 mph instead of 95.

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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32489 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:30 AM

As the eye interacts with the land, you'd expect it to ride up the coast a little. I'd assume there is some sort of diffraction effect going on. I guess the best analogy to use would be to think about driving on a paved road onto a dirt road. When you first change road types, you turn a little.

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32490 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM

Okay folks. For those of you that don't have cable tv. ShanaTX just put up about 2 dozen links for info.

If you watch the Weather Channel loop, with the grid overlay, you can see a slight move toward the North.
I'm thinking the 120mph may have come from a mesovortex located just south of the center at landfall. But I can't find data to support that yet.
The eye did manage to contract prior to landfall, and may be the reason the northward move is apparent. The eye contraction could also increase the windspeed temporarily.
Recon had reported an extrapolated pressure of 947mb, but the report was quiclky corrected and the pressure removed from the 0426Z report.


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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
Re: Let's Try This Again [Re: erauwx]
      #32491 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM

This is probably a bad time for a met question. Do the embedded tornadoes in these hurricanes resemble the dynamic which produces suction vortices that spin out from the main vortex in F3-F4 tornadoes (there is a great video of this showing the F4 that struck Edmonton Alberta in 1987)?
You guys are all great!

------------------------------------------------------------
Eat a corndog today!
"It is sometimes better to keep your mouth shut and be thought
a fool than open it and remove all doubt"-Abraham Lincoln :?:


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: MikeC]
      #32492 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:33 AM

I haven't been around much the past few days, getting actual work done (a nice change, I guess, from following these beasts), but the second of the two options I presented a few days ago -- the more westward track into the state -- has come to fruition. But, where does it go from here?

If we've learned anythnig from this season, it's that storms are going further west than predicted before turning. The ridge to its north is gradually weakening, but it still extends a good bit to the west without a whole lot pushing it back east right now.

Best prediction would be for it to exit the state into the Gulf again a bit further south than what Frances did -- and probably a tad bit stronger at that point. Somewhere between north of Tampa and Crystal River looks to be my bet, with a gradual turn again to the NW with time. Overnight early Monday morning -- probably between 2 & 8 am -- a second landfall somewhere near or just east of Apalachicola is likely as a minmal hurricane. From there, the storm should being to turn N & NE. Thus, this track is a bit stronger than the NHC's track, a bit faster to begin with, and about 75 miles further west.

Everyone in the Panhandle needs to watch this one closely Sunday, as we may see some extension of the hurricane advisories up the coast. I've heard from a few NWS forecasters around the SE that they expect the storm to hit the Gulf again...it's just a matter of where and for how long.

Stairstep tracks like Frances took across the state will be pivotal, so this is one instance where minor wobbles are something that need to be closely followed.

Best of wishes to everyone in this thing's path..and here's hoping Gulf season is a downer.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Need Advice [Re: Bloodstar]
      #32493 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:33 AM

dude - Seminole middle school shelter is open.. go to Park Blvd to 131st, go north to 86th and should be on the right.

As for sandbagging, I am in Redington on the Intracoastal and my home sits at five and one-half feet above sea level and I have placed 2 sets of bags (high) across my sliding doors toward the bay. My dock faces directly north so I might not be too bad because the surge element will come from the west and sw winds about 10 am they said. Considering high tide in Madeira is at 11:53 (2.53 above seal level), it will be close considering 75 mph gusts throwing water at me. I just throw them down with one corner angeled in, the next bag angeled to it and so on.. it has always worked.


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Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: the HIRT team [Re: VandyBrad]
      #32494 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:34 AM

check this from the HIRT team at http://hurricanetrack.com

News & Comments Updated: 11:20 PM EDT, September 25, 2004...

RAGING WIND HERE IN VERO- HIRT TAHOE HAS BACK WINDOW BLASTED OUT! WE ARE ALL SAFE- BUT IT IS A MESS OUT THERE!
The wind will have to go un-measured by us now- we just lost the back hatch window on the Tahoe from a branch smashing in to it at over 60 mph! We are safe- but the the Tahoe is damaged. We were about to go live on MSNBC when BAM! something hit the Tahoe from behind. Glass is all in the back- but that is fixable.

We are now under a concrete bay at the local hospital where MSNBC has been reporting all evening. The pressure is down to 976 millibars and the wind seems to be letting up a little. We will venture out during the eye only in a small area to see what damage we can see. Even I know that it is dangerous to go outside during the eye- so I will not go far from the grounds of the hospital here in Vero Beach. I will try to post more video updates here once the eye passes over.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: adv 50A [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #32495 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:35 AM

Anybody else see a pattern here...(?):

NHC Update 11:00 p.m. Friday: THE STRONG HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN

Update at 11:00 am Saturday: THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS

1:00 am this moring: ...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

If I were on the Gulf Coast I don't think I think I would count on the NW turn happening on schedule... eventually, yes... but when... definitely later than they thought. That much is known...


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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Anyone? Anyone? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #32496 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:36 AM

Thanks!!

Any news on power outage numbers? I'd like to know the state wide number.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Need Advice [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #32497 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:36 AM

Quote:

dude - Seminole middle school shelter is open.. go to Park Blvd to 131st, go north to 86th and should be on the right.

As for sandbagging, I am in Redington on the Intracoastal and my home sits at five and one-half feet above sea level and I have placed 2 sets of bags (high) across my sliding doors toward the bay. My dock faces directly north so I might not be too bad because the surge element will come from the west and sw winds about 10 am they said. Considering high tide in Madeira is at 11:53 (2.53 above seal level), it will be close considering 75 mph gusts throwing water at me. I just throw them down with one corner angeled in, the next bag angeled to it and so on.. it has always worked.




Thanks for the heads up on the sandbagging, the big problem, I just moved into this house... 6 weeks ago...
LOL

this was a really really really bad time to pick this house...

Ok, I also found a website on sandbagging ... here is the link for anyone else who might need it in the future:

http://www.valleywater.org/Emergency_Info_and_Preparation/Sandbag_program/index.shtm

Be back in a bit, time to go to the causeway and grab some sand...

Mark


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Jeanne Landfalls Near Stuart, FL [Re: danielw]
      #32498 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:41 AM

looked like there was an eye replacement cycle occuring right at landfall. Is that possibly why the eye deteriorated so fast?

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davet
Unregistered




Re: the HIRT team [Re: Staggy]
      #32499 - Sun Sep 26 2004 01:42 AM

"we just lost the back hatch window on the Tahoe from a branch smashing in to it at over 60 mph! "

Perfect example of WHY to board up. Car windows are VERY tough.


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