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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2002 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Storm Hanna
      #3257 - Sat Sep 14 2002 12:11 AM

7am Update
Well, quite a change overnight! The ridge to the northeast of the system fell apart and a steady motion to the north northeast is now easily detected. Center is almost upon the Mississippi coast so additional intensification is not likely. The convection is all east of the center so it looks like a wet day in the Florida panhandle. A secondary center - so common with most of the weaker systems this year - seems to be further southeast of the primary center, but it is not well organized. The approaching trough to the northwest will likely absorb what's left of Hanna. All in all, the NHC did a pretty good job with this one (can't say the same for myself)
Cheers,
ED

Original Post
About 36 hours ago a subtropical ridge pushed westward across south Florida and Cuba to the south of Hanna. At the same time, a small upper level high developed over west central Georgia. With easterly influence from the upper high and westerly influence from the southern ridge, Hanna has been 'stuck'. Contrary to recon (and NHC), NASA high resolution animation locates Hanna at 27.2N 90.1W at 03Z and the storm has been stationary for hours. Convection has been shoved eastward by westerly shear away from the center again - and the earlier flare-up is beginning to weaken. Hanna is still in a holding pattern. Westerly shear is forecast to weaken over the next 36 hours which should again allow the convection to build back toward the center (or perhaps allow the center to drift eastward toward the convection). In any event, the center is further south than currently indicated - by about a full degree. Hanna is a drifter and I really have no idea where eventual landfall will occur - but I do believe that it will be much later and further east than currently indicated. If you really want to get a good sense of the frustration, go back about 60 hours and start reading the Discussion bulletins - and notice the 48 hour forecast positions. Two days ago most of the models - all of them in 'firm consensus' - already had Hanna inland. I've got a hunch, and its only a hunch, that Hanna will eventually be a Florida storm - and probably east of AQQ.
Cheers,
ED


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