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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Accuweather [Re: LI Phil]
      #33227 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:05 AM

Phirst of all (had to get the PH in there ), to all of you up north who are feeling the remnants of Jeanne...stay safe. Remember this saying:

"TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN"

You never know just how deep the water is and it rises fast (take my word for it) so if you can't see the road, don't drive through it.

Accuweather: someone mentioned that Accuweather nailed Jeanne, and they indeed did. I think they nailed Charley, Frances and Ivan, too. So, when Denis Phillips from ABC 28 in Tampa started talking about Jeanne, he had on JB. He explained WHY Jeanne would not make that forecasted "skirt up the Florida coast because of the High being lower than the 2 models wanted it to be. Denis is one of those forecasters who usually comes forward with his own thoughts and depending on what he SEES, he will either go with the NHC or maybe just defer slightly from it. With Jeanne, he really emphasized that the Accuweather forecast was not out of the question, but also told us to stay focused on the NHC. Basically, to make a long story short ---which I have a hard time doing if you haven't noticed---he told us to keep an eye on Jeanne, and what I read between the lines was that even though he wouldn't go as far as disagreeing with the models forecast, he wasn't all that convinced. Being that I am almost on first name basis with almost every local met in TB, I emailed him asking him who's forecasts had been more accurate this year: NHC or Accuweather. He emailed me back the next day and told me that Accuweather had been more accurate this year, but that it varied year to year. In other words,what I inferred from that email was this: he was saying "Accuweather's better this year than ever before but I am in CYA mode so I had to add in the "but it varies from year to year bit."
Polk Schools are off until next Monday, and the only reason we were allowed to have football practice with the dusk-til-dawn curfew was because we had lights on the practice field.
Plus, 10 billion mosquitos just waiting to suck our blood.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
quieter days...? [Re: Colleen A.]
      #33228 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:13 AM

short late post. jeanne's extratropical successor is bending eastward.. it's rainshield soon to depart new jersey, while clinging to southern new england overnight as the system moves away. lisa persists as a tropical storm, though it appears likely to reach hurricane strength before getting too far north and undergoing extratropical conversion. my earlier bid that lisa would be held by the ridge failed, so shame on me for botching that idea.
eastern part of the basin essentially done as september closes and an upper trough hangs off the west african coast. development closer to the caribbean, remains possible, though modeling is losing it's urge to develop every other emerging wave... not too much more going to happen out there. globals showing various versions of a slow evolution in the western caribbean.. of one of those october hurricanes that makes florida nervous. since Opal these types of system have summarily turned east over cuba, save irene in '99.. based on recent events i'd be a tad more concerned. still too far out to pick out specifics of development, or whether any system would track over central america and remain weak or not threaten areas to the north. suffice to say the area between colombia and the bay of campeche is the biggest concern in the basin from here. still a shot at potential action in the western atlantic, those homebrews that happen from cutoffs or amplified troughs that block the advance of wave energy.. nothing on the scope at this point.
basin looks to go quiet over the next few save a persistent but sputtering lisa, and a slow threat materializing in the western caribbean...
HF 0412z29september


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Question for Kent [Re: Kent]
      #33230 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:22 AM

Kent...what part of that loop scares you? I might not be looking at the right area. Are you concerned about the wave coming off of Africa? or the little blob just west of the Cape Verde Islands?
You don't have to answer me right now....I just checked some of the models, they aren't (as of 12:12pm) showing anything developing, but who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Turn East and blow as hard as you can towards that area.
I've had my phil of hurricanes this year...when it seems to become a normal weather event, you know it's been a bad season.
I'm off to get some sleep so I have the strength to deal with Thing 1 and Thing 2 tomorrow....and possibly Thing 2's friend Thing 3.
Nite all...and to all of our friends up north, stay safe and well.
Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3524
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #33231 - Wed Sep 29 2004 12:30 AM

Thanks DebbiePSL.
Glad you are safe and back on the board. I missed the board during the server problems a few weeks ago. I then decided that CFHC was addicting.
Kent: Although the WV loop off the African Coast does have a midlevel swirl in it. I would think there is a 50/50 chance that Lisa's outflow would influence it. We'll know better tomorrow.
I have checked the discussions, sat loops and 2 of the models. So far-nothing in the GOM but a tropical wave. That's out to Sunday morning-1200Z.
Hank covered this so much better than I could!
Colleen: glad you made it back also. Several of the Lakeland members had posted about your neighborhood.
Is there anyone left that hasn't been back on the board. I don't think ED has been up yet, but I haven't checked today.

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 29 2004 12:36 AM)


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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: danielw]
      #33232 - Wed Sep 29 2004 02:02 AM

This has been interesting, but I get the feeling that if you are not one of the "in" people, people are just not interested in you. Thought I might get at least a welcome or something, but, no dice. I guess you guys down there have more important stuff to do. See you later

Second Shift, Welcome Aboard...You registered on 9/11, a very crazy time...I apologize we didn't welcome you formally...now we have!

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 29 2004 11:17 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: Second Shift]
      #33233 - Wed Sep 29 2004 03:42 AM

Quote:

This has been interesting, but I get the feeling that if you are not one of the "in" people, people are just not interested in you. Thought I might get at least a welcome or something, but, no dice. I guess you guys down there have more important stuff to do. See you later




nah, not more important stuff to do, just trying to relax and catch our breath after a rather hectic 2 months. Come on back, while a few people know each other on here, I'm personally not coming in expecting to make friends with anyone on here. I'm here to read on hurricanes, learn about the storms, and otherwise put my occasional 1.5 cents in the mix. This group is a fairly friendly lot actually. And I know I try to read every post on here, even when it's 500 of them. (they start to blur together if you're not careful....)

Chin up and hang around, we're just exhausted, not mean
Mark

Falcons 3 - 0.... woo woo


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 459
Loc: Georgia Tech
Off Topic suggestion for the Mods? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33234 - Wed Sep 29 2004 03:46 AM

hey guys, would it be viable to move a lot of the information for relatively new people into a manual, call it RTFM if you want. then conspicuously post it at the top of each thread. I don't mind the questions, But some of the more basic ones would be best served in their own FAQ page.

Trust me, I'm not complaining about this site at all... but it's just an idea that may or may not be useful. (if you do have a place like this on here... I've never seen it

Mark

Good suggestion...I'll bring it up with Mike.
Falcons 3 - 0 winner of the sominex game of the week award

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 29 2004 11:19 AM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Off Topic suggestion for the Mods? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33235 - Wed Sep 29 2004 03:59 AM

It is an idea..... Have to see what John, Mike and the gang think...I just got in...new system...bugs...etc. It will be passed along.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Thanks-but they Just changed my title! [Re: Second Shift]
      #33236 - Wed Sep 29 2004 04:09 AM

You are welcome.... things have been...well, making history lately! Sent you a PM... we will get there... let me know what we need to do.

Coop

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: danielw]
      #33237 - Wed Sep 29 2004 06:19 AM

Congrats, Daniel!

Regarding Accuweather- i am astonished their forecast track on Jeannie was on the money. I will take their forecasts seriously next time at par with the NHC. Now, what is that GOM/Western Carib disturbance people have been talking about?

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 153
Loc: United States
Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #33238 - Wed Sep 29 2004 06:25 AM

I was surprised as well. They usually go against the grain.

Regarding Accuweather- i am astonished their forecast track on Jeannie was on the money. I will take their forecasts seriously next time at par with the NHC. Now, what is that GOM/Western Carib disturbance people have been talking about?




--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #33239 - Wed Sep 29 2004 07:09 AM

We got to do the power dance yesterday afternoon and almost immediately left to go help friends wire their pump so they would have water and nail some tarps over damaged roof. Got home just before curfew with a throbing finger from a bad hammer swing.
Almost 54,000 still W/O power in St. Lucie county and schools which never reopened from Frances were damaged worse by jeanne. Every school in county has water damage

10 o'clock news was all Aftermath related and sad. A local family man died when the Waste Truck He was driving didnt spot the low power line in time to stop. He was killed when he contacted the ground and truck at the same time.
Woke this morning to story from Martin County that officials going to door to door overnite telling people to leave. The SFWMD people are realeasing water from Swollen Lake Okeechobee over concerns with the dike around it. The additional flow down canal to south fork of river could flood homes today.
I wish I had something more positive and funny to post. Hopefully this season has left its finally fury.
I keep getting thoughts of a storm moving from sw Carib and moving thru keys and Miami. Stupid paranoid thought. I havent watched football yet this season-- just been to busy or without power.
Hurric


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Lakeland Damage photo [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33240 - Wed Sep 29 2004 07:16 AM

The back of a strip mall on HWY 98, south of Toll Road 570 collapsed as the back side Jeanne was passing over. Approximately $600,000 in damage per owner (probably much more). Looks like a sink hole to me.


Full size (1792x1200) here:
www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/lakeland1_fullsize.jpg

Note 3 parking spaces in foreground show new edge of parking area.

More photos to come. Lakeland is about 125 miles inland from where Jeanne came ashore.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
accuweather [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #33242 - Wed Sep 29 2004 07:42 AM

Not to be the wet blanket on Accuweather's party, but I think we should realize they were right for the wrong reasons. Remember, it was EMPHATICALLY stated it would hit southern Fla. on a Monday as a cat 3, and they were off by 4 days. In fact, they had no idea it would do what it did, otherwise they would have not been off by 4 days (on their original forecast which was what brought this up). I bring this up because their long range forecast was being credited as nailing it with the exception of the date, but that is no small exception. Their forecast was for a hurricane on Monday, and it simply did not happen. If I say we are getting a snow storm on Thursday, and we get one a week later, I cannot claim to be correct, just off on the time. Yes, it was the same storm, yes, it did (unfortunately) hit the same spot in south Fla., but we are growing their legend not based on what actually happened.
I still stand behind my posts that stated it was irresponsible to guarantee a forecast 5 days out that did not, in fact, verify.
I don't bring this up to be disagreeable, but it may be because I watched the "No Spin Zone" last night!

BTW, I was one of the lucky ones up here-only 2.47" from the storm, and the tornadoes stayed to my NW and W, as did all of the flooding. Wonder if our friends on L.I had their "Phil" of it last night.

Edited by MrSpock (Wed Sep 29 2004 07:44 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Lakeland Damage photo [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #33243 - Wed Sep 29 2004 07:46 AM

So thats why my doctor's office is not answering their phone.! I have not been able to get into that area since my job is on the other side of town. Wow!
I will be looking forward to your photos as well. Speaking of rain,
It will be tomorrow(thursday) before I will be able to get the Tarps on my roof. The shingles that are left are all loose and I am not sure what else is loose. I saw a cold front signature on the weather report north of us. Is this a rain producer, if so can some one tell me when?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Lakeland Damage photo [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33244 - Wed Sep 29 2004 07:57 AM

I am not sure where you are, but the MLB forecast calls for a chance of afternoon showers and tstorms each day.
BTW, talk about a bulls eye, Japan just got nailed by number 8 this year.


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Terri
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: Richmond Hill, GA
Re: Please welcome Danny, our new overnight mod! [Re: danielw]
      #33245 - Wed Sep 29 2004 08:04 AM

Quote:

Hey Phil, that's Radio shack's slogan!
I'll do what I can for you folks.



Congratulations, Danny! Since I'm a night owl, I'm sure you'll be answering a lot of questions for me. Of course, you've done that already, even without the title. For that, I thank you.


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Lakeland Damage photo [Re: MrSpock]
      #33246 - Wed Sep 29 2004 08:05 AM

I hesitate to point this out and it is just speculation but a war device was tested off the Pensacola coast line prior to going into Iraq last year. Also we know that North Korea has been lobbing them in the vicinity of Japan for a while now hoping that one would miss its mark for the sake of testing. Would any one like to do a correlation against hurricane disasters that are repetitive to the same area?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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cmdebbie
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Oviedo, FL
Re: Lakeland Damage photo [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33247 - Wed Sep 29 2004 08:52 AM

Personally, I believe these areas that you mention are and have always been in the path of these natural disasters. Therefore, I do not believe there is a correlation here. Just a unique year.

--------------------
Debbie
The Weather Freak


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
hurric and spock [Re: Hurric]
      #33248 - Wed Sep 29 2004 08:58 AM

Really feel bad for what you are all going through. Remember the most unnerving thing after Andrew was not the storm experience itself which varied between terrorizing and exhilirating but the months of nothing being the same. A few weeks til main things were normal but months til clean up and repairs and know in south dade was closer to a year or so.

There should be some sort of plan for schools.. what I dont know... some set up in the future tho how often does an area get wiped out twice?

As for football.. was sick monday night and couldn't crawl over to the switch to even turn it on. Sometimes even things we love get put on the back burner til we can deal with them, enjoy them.

As for Carib storm... can't see how it won't materialize unless a fast winter sets in with a strong wind flow. Figure we have a week or two respite before we have to start shuttering up and shopping again.

I mean its normal to have things come up from the carib in october and late sept.

everyone remember jeanne was born close in just before the islands so watch those waves from africa

and......accuweather and every other outlaw forecaster (my name.. think willie and waylon) have been right this year where NHC was off.. NHC was on target with updates but because they are liable in a governmental way they cannot change their forecasts, suddenly go by synoptic flow and sat imagery until they have sent planes to the del marva peninsular and get back data, run it thru their models (next model update not current set) and then review it.. my God a 1935 storm could have wiped Florida off the map before the NHC went through all its steps to protect the accuracy of their forecast to post a change and go with what they see.

Something somewhere has to be changed or... they can just leave it like it is and let all those companies who pay money to guys like joe to forecast for them to put his kids through college. I mean thats how america works right? Free market capitalism?

NHC is good.. in their way but there has to be a change to go with what they see w/o having to send planes to Del Marva Pen...to justify what they know. They are the best..they know plenty.. someone has to let the tiger lose if you ask me.

Speaking of tigers.. ask Neil Frank to come back

take care...will post again sometime
be well ...bobbi
hang in there

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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