F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins on June 1st and lasts until Nov 30th. NHC Outlooks resume on May 15th..
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 237 (Idalia) , Major: 237 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 237 (Idalia) Major: 237 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | >> (show all)
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33014 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:21 PM

LI Phil/Grasshopper

Thankyou LI phil for anwsering, I have had a lot to do lately from sports, school, music, after school activities, etc and parties (I think you get the picture).

I think the threat for any landfalling hurricanes has remained the same, if not decreased a little. The water temp has been knocked down by Frances, Ivan, Charley, Jeanne and Bonnie there's not that much warm water around period. Except for the very eastern Gulf, and the SW Carribbean. Also the storm would most likely have to cross over Cuba to have an hit on Tampa which would most likely weaken it, unless there was some weird upper level air patterns going on. And to top it off, there's a shot of very cool air going to be coming down from Canada, might even bring some coldness to Florida. That would create a relatively weak jet stream but just enough that it would hinder any tropical storms that came to close to the USA. So in conclusion, you should still be watching the tropics but I wouldn't except another storm like Frances or Ivan to be barreling toward a part of Florida again, but you never know!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Tornado threat almost over... [Re: DMFischer]
      #33015 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:22 PM

From Henry Margusity, accuwx severe weather dude:

"We have had 3 reports of tornadoes so far today which increases the total number of tornadoes produce by Jeanne to 5. Frances and Ivan had produced well over a dozen tornadoes by the second day of landfall. Tropical systems are always tricky when it comes to tornadoes. What I have noticed this afternoon is the lack of strong winds on the VAD wind profiles. Both Ivan and Frances had very strong low and mid-level winds over 60 kts. Jeanne has winds less then 60 kts on the VAD wind and in most cases, winds are less then 30s kts through the depth of the atmosphere. Since the storm is weakening, we may see only a few tornadoes between the rest of this afternoon and tomorrow.

Again the place under the highest threat for tornadoes this afternoon will be across northeast South Carolina."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33017 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:33 PM

Quote:

Hey LI
Thanks for all of the good work on the board - - The westerly trend discussed on this board proved out to be right and actually won me some respect. I really thought all of this stuff (CV Season) was over - but EGAD - Channel 9 is leading it's internet board with the headline - - New Tropical Wave coming off of Africa merits watching???? WHAT IS UP WITH THIS???? Any feedback?? Please tell me I won't have to paint my holiday decorations on my plywood??




The way the season from hell is progressing EVERY wave merits watching...

Here's the wave Wingman pointed out from the Channel 9 discussion...you can also see Little Lisa spinning her way up north and out of our hair...as I said earlier, the only thing that bears watching with her is whether she can make it to hurricane strength...affecting the numbers for the season only.

Way to early to make any kind of a call...but you can be assured we'll keep on top of it. It would be two weeks away from any US mischief anyway.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AngB
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: S. Merritt Island
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33018 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:36 PM

South Merritt Island checking in....We had a few shingles missing and a water leak that will be a bear to track down...will be caulking and sealing everything in sight. Only lost power for a day. Didn't notice too many trees down...Frances must have taken care of the weak ones. There does seem to be more houses with roof damage this time. A lot more snapped power poles also.

We were going to stay but bailed when the weather guys were suggesting possible CAT IV. We stayed in a hotel by Disney and ended up bailing water for several hours that was coming in the ac vents.
We've been pretty fortunate. Really feel for the guys further south that took a beating twice.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: African Wave... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33019 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:38 PM

I don't think much of that wave, it's convection was confined to the ITCZ and has to face some serious shear. Just a note, you can see the ULL to the north of it spining counter-clockwise. It looks as though it's taking the north part of the wave and wrapping it up in it's circulation.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: AngB]
      #33020 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:41 PM

>>> We had a few shingles missing and a water leak that will be a bear to track down

A bear watch has been issued.

(Sorry, that's gonna be no fun...)

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Housekeeping item [Re: LI Phil]
      #33021 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:42 PM

Couple things that will likely help when posting activity increases.

Try to include a link to the outside source (sat pic, maps, etc.) that you have a question or comment on so others don't have to dig for it after you make your post. The old timers know where to get this data, but newer weather watchers may not and they want to learn too!

When you notice a new advisory is out, try including a link to the source you are referencing. Different sources seem to update faster than others. Also, cutting and pasting the entire advisory really adds to the (physical) length of the thread.

Have fun and don't take yourself or the comments of others too seriously. Tensions run high when a monster is at your door.

Hope this helps.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Tornado threat almost over... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33022 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:43 PM

I think that this system will become very elongated as the high pushes on it from the West as shown by some of the models. I mean it could happen but sometimes the models just associate a weaker system with an elongated body this time I think they're right. If this thing stays compact and has a well defined structure, the storm could become very strong off the coast of Delmarva peninsula as it makes the transition to extra-tropical. We'll see.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: African Wave... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33023 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:49 PM

Thanks for the update - and the follow-up comments - pray that the shear cut that puppy to shreads - - A really STUPID question - - why does the season shift from a CV focus to a Carribean, GOM focus?? is it purely water Tems or is there something else involved???

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AngB
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 8
Loc: S. Merritt Island
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: LI Phil]
      #33025 - Mon Sep 27 2004 08:58 PM

Quote:

A bear watch has been issued.




Very funny. LOL

I sure hope and pray that this will end the landfalling hurricane season.
It was evident from the lack of traffic on the evacuation routes that many people stayed. I think people stayed for various reasons:.... it was a combination of weariness....or
thinking that since their homes survived the last one without too much damage this one would be ok too....or that their houses could be damaged more if they aren't there to fix damage as it happens. Who knows?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33026 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:02 PM

Quote:

Thanks for the update - and the follow-up comments - pray that the shear cut that puppy to shreads - - A really STUPID question - - why does the season shift from a CV focus to a Carribean, GOM focus?? is it purely water Tems or is there something else involved???




Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before or upon reaching the Caribbean. Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October.

Gulf storms are much different than Cape Verde storms. For one thing, they have a lot less distance to travel before they make landfall. Another is that they mainly threaten only the Gulf coast.

Gulf storms are also notable for their maddening unpredictability in terms of where they're headed. Often they meander around aimlessly, wreaking havoc with everyone's work schedules. Though late season storms tend to be weaker, that is not always the case. Let's not forget Opal in 1995 which reached Cat 4 strength before going ashore as a Cat 3 and causing great damage in the Florida panhandle.

Here is an excellent, if old, short article on the subject...actually it addresses hurricane season as a whole, but it is certainly apt for this discussion.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33027 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:03 PM

It's mainly because the African Wave Train dies off because the ITCZ starts to move at an area with not enough coriolis effect to spin the storms ( the equator). That's why storms don't form in the winter, at least one of the reasons. If you have any other questions ask me!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: African Wave... [Re: Keith234]
      #33028 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:11 PM

Thanks LI and Keith
The posting on this board do ot replace the NOAA postings, but the information, theory and discussion do augment what we see on the NOAA posts and on TV. I feel like a neophyte in the weathe department, but a vetern at surviving hurricanes - we got hammered 3 times this year - By watching this board, and printing Skeets maps, I feel more prepared and less reactionary than I have during any other season in the past. thanks to all of the mods and the great minds who post here. We will survive!!!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 296
Re: African Wave... [Re: Wingman51]
      #33029 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:22 PM

The reasons I believe the CV season starts later and ends quicker are due to 2 main reasons:
1. Water temps are at their peak then start to decrease after now. Remember, the eastern side of an ocean basin has cooler water temps farther south than the western side due to the upper level ridge of high pressure over the cooler waters that creates a wind flow conducive to upwelling. That's why the waters off of California are colder in August than NJ usually.
2. Upper level patterns start to change, with the jet stream making its return, and either systems get turned NW quickly, or get sheared apart. Later on, the ITCZ does move farther south.

There may be others, but I think those are the 2 biggies.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: African Wave... [Re: MrSpock]
      #33030 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:39 PM

The jet stream has some effect to, Wingman. It creates wind shear which avidly affects the growth and development of the storms. The jet stream forms as a result of increased temp differential over the tropics and the mid-latitudes. The jet stream is more noticeable in the winter because the temp differential is greater then in the summer. That's why storms that reach high-level's of the troposphere (aka Hurricanes) favor the summer time in the Atlantic basin.

Also to explain what Mr.Spock said about the water currents. The pacific high spins clockwise since the oreintation of the high, the high's winds drive cool sout pacific ocean water up to the Califoria Coast, that's why there water temp is so cold. It's the exact opposite in the atlantic basin as deep warm tropical water is brought forth from the tropics.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Mon Sep 27 2004 09:41 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: African Wave... [Re: MrSpock]
      #33031 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:41 PM

Quote:

... and either systems get turned NW quickly




Shouldn't that be NE?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Ocean currents [Re: Keith234]
      #33032 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:46 PM

Just to further add to what Mr. Spock & Keith said about the currents, this link both explains it and includes a graphic showing the world's currents and what direction they flow...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: African Wave... [Re: Staggy]
      #33033 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:49 PM

It's generally first NW then N, then NNE as it steers the edge of the Azores high.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Staggy
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
Re: African Wave... [Re: Keith234]
      #33034 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:54 PM

Quote:

It's generally first NW then N, then NNE as it steers the edge of the Azores high.




Ah, I see. Thx.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Ocean currents [Re: LI Phil]
      #33035 - Mon Sep 27 2004 09:54 PM

That's a really good link, generally the ocean currents follow the prevailing wind currents. As the link shows, El nino changes the overall direction of these wind currents by changing the normal pressure gradients.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 64 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 143162

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center