Anonymousnickd
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the visible at 13:15UTC..11.3N,66.5W. is this the center of circulation?...if it is, it's now over water.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i think it has survived south america.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Here is a color-enhanced IR sat. picture. Look to where the storm is, and you can clearly see the center indicated by the large "circle". Most of the convection on the north side, but I see this thing getting better organized today. Hey, I think I found the center and this is IR imagery.
http://cimss.ssec.wis.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8n.GIF
Kevin 
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Go to , click on satellite imagery, go to the GOES-EAST western atlantic and caribbean, and finally click on IR (colored enhanced).
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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i see this think moving fast it looks like a gulf storm more and more but then could cross over to the east coast all locals are talking alot about this one could be the big one 2 days this thing will be in the north ciab if it dont slow going to be a long week
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Well It Looks as if Frank and Steve will get there storm !!!! LOL  NO, this could be a serious situation in the next 120hrs........> AAHH I like the PACKERS OVER THE SAINTS 24- 21 ..... >>>> Luckily our friends in the panhandle dodged a Diamond bullet, Dont wish that on anybody. Finally sunny and warm here in St Pete my yard is still a swamp though  C- YA!!!!!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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hey everyone im from pensacola an everyone said that hanna was weak storm i dont think so we had winds sustained at about 50 mph an gust to about 70 for about 3 hours in the morning yesterday. It was awesome but left a big mess to clean uo though. haha an now another storm possibly much stronger could be headed into the gulf. i'll be ready an i'll be watching an waiting
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Okay, I'm going to do what I don't like to do. Speculate. I feel the track is right on target through 72 hours. After that (here comes the speculation) I believe we will see a northward curve across western Cuba. Now, given the time of year we are in, a high-amplitude trough is bound to grab this storm, sending it northeast eventually. That would equal a Florida West Coast strike. What gets me is the possibility of the storm barely inching northward within 100 miles of the Florida West Coast until the flow back southwest and turns it northeast across the peninsula. Add in the possibility of a category 2 or 3 hurricane and we could get a very ugly late week here. *JUST MY SPECULATION*. Thing could totally change, but if the track continues to verify well through 72 hours, I'll be concerned.
If on Wednesday night or Thursday morning we have a storm moving north over western Cuba with an amplification occuring just north and west of the storm, we are going to have some nerve-wrecking times ahead.
Any long term *speculation* welcome. Please make it at least halfway reasonable.
*OFF TOPIC*: Here are my NFC South picks for week two.
Bucs vs. Ravens: Bucs 24, Ravens 16
Packers vs. Saints: Packers 27, Saints 24 (yes, I see Packers wining by three again.)
Lions vs. Panthers: Panthers 16, Lions 7
Bears vs. Falcons: Bears 24, Falcons 17
We'll see how these do by the end of the day.
Kevin
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Mary
Unregistered
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Well, the little storm seems to have made it through Venezuela. Now contrary to the models and the previous speculations my take on this storm is that it will become a minimal tropical storm and will have every one scratching their heads as to why it is not stronger. I think the wind shear that has plagued all the storms in the upper levels will probably get to this one too. The forward speed on this storm is awfully fast for it to be able to intensify at this time. As to which area of the state it is likely to land on, I think that this one will probably go west and end up some where between Brownsville Texas and Galveston. The one thing I have noticed about weather patterns is that if you get the steering currents from one direction overtime they tend to go the other direction after a major event such as a tropical storm. The weather like all living things inhales and exhales. Sometimes this is the east/west phenomenon and sometimes the west/east/( I know it may all sound like balony right now but hey, in my day baloney was a feast at a nickel a pound!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sorry kevin, I live in tampa too. Bucs have no offense. Ravens 27 Buc 13. Scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter. I wont post anything on the next TS-hurricane that will be till later tonight. Though my forcast on Hanna was right on for a 1 week perdiction on strength at landfall and timing. I was a bust on where landfall was even though the worst weather was in my pocker. Ill take the landfall as the most important part so Im calling hanna a semi bust forcast for me. If it was a hurricane where it really did matter where it landfalled then it would be a total bust. Otherwise only bust i had was the 1 st storm of the season. I cant wait to get more info and things on our carribean which i will forcast late tonight.
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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recon will be telling us in the next couple of hours if the center is in or to the south of that burst off the venezuela coast.. i'm tempted to believe it is. a'ite.. if the center isnt under the convection we are looking at a weak, westward moving, probably not closed system. if it is under.. the intensification process is now under way. shouldnt go quickly until the storm moves away from the south american coast.. but after it reaches the 72nd meridian or so.. should become a steady intensifier. mary as for shear.. possible, but the upper trough in the w carib is retrograding and not really generating a whole lot.
models: a couple of the globals still bullish on turning it up near eastern cuba, but the consensus has shifted to west of jamaica now. on the other hand is all the way over across the yucatan now. years past we've watched one major caribbean hurricane after another just keep going west and never turn up and hit us.. so that possibility does resonate.. but i'm going against it this time. think that by friday the storm will be clearing western cuba or the yucatan channel and entering the gulf.. turning northward and slowing down.
intensity.. the big scary question. globals not deepening the storm much, statistical models are. does its usual major hurricane. think the intensity is slightly conservative after 36hrs. i'm going to call for major hurricane.. something i dont usually do unless a system is well on its way there. partially gut feeling, partially because so many other people have.. that if i'm wrong i'm just another bandwagon wreck victim. but i do see a very mean hurricane out of this. primary concerns southern and western florida (i know, friday to sunday is a long way off).
elsewhere in the tropics.. nothing is closer than probably 48hrs from development. new african wave is in a good environment, but not quite ready. wave at 35w is shorn. some disturbed weather southeast and east of bermuda that isnt very organized. hanna tracking NE towards the atlanta area.. all the weather is south and east of there. looking less tropical today. western gulf still has me suspicious, but nothing there right now.
earlier post about hurricane parties: need a hurricane for that. hanna was just a breeze and many hours of light to moderate rain. will try again with isidore next weekend.
HF 1624z15september
HF 1623z
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...A LOT DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHAT IS NOW TD 10. I DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ALL OVER A DOOM AND GLOOM FORECAST. AT THE SAME TIME I THINK WE NEED TO RESPECT THE FACT THAT BASED ON AND MODEL FORECASTS WE COULD HAVE A HURRICANE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO US TO EFFECT OUR FORECAST.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Saints putting a whipping on the Packers right now.... Unbelievable 28-10
If this trend continues the Saints could possibly win their first two games... based on this event, I am now forecasting that TD10 will develop into a Cat 5 and hit New Orleans... on Saturday... and destroy the Superdome... hehe (sorry Rick)
Just kidding Steve.... hey, but somethings up if the Saints go 2-0... then again maybe old Bret and the Pack have them right where they want em....
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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might have it downgraded at five pm. recon hasnt closed off a center as far as i can tell.. even though the system is looking ok at this time. thoughts remain the same for now.
hmm... couple of models resolving lows out of the reorganizing feature. one just NE of puerto rico, one nearly 1000 east of bermuda. fish spinner country, but interesting. can see an exposed low level swirl with the one near 34/48.
HF 1909z15september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Can anyone recommend atracking software for a palm pilot ? 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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saits 2-0 bad news for the superdome and they just got the roof fixed just playing i hope not
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The newest T-numbers have been issued. A 1.5 from both agencies, and the center is at 12.4 north! The center has relocated. Also, I was watching a loop of it on the weather channel and I would swear I saw some ciruclation closer to the deep convection further north. Why is the convection dying further south? The low has relocated further north, thus, giving that convection no support. Recon needs to look further north.
Anyone else see this?
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Kevin
will those T numbers and the new center be what the uses at the 5pm update? still learning here...
also does recon provide the T numbers? My guess is is so they have and will continue to focus futhur north in regards to recon obs
Edited by troy2 (Sun Sep 15 2002 08:38 PM)
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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according to ...it's a wave.
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Amazing 
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