Anonymous
Unregistered
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it may be a tropical storm already. 14.3 70.0
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Now, someone said the other day that some of the models were 'crazy', showed TD 10 in the Carib and another cyclone N of PR...uhhhh, has no one noticed what is happening N of PR? Weird , to the max.
IHS,
Bill
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Satellite imagery shows a disorganized mess in the eastern and central Caribbean at this hour. However...it looks like we are finally gaining convection further south, and this area was nearly devoid just a few hours ago. My take...TD10 is back, 30 kts with 1008 mb central pressure. Moving west for the time being. I am greatly concerned that as this moves into the western Caribbean we will see this system deepen very, very quickly. Models are whacked right now and I'm not putting much confidence in them. Better get your rest now because come Wednesday into the early weekend Florida *MAY* have some rough times ahead. In any event TD10 should be back when recon check it tomorrow Morning, maybe even have Isidore. Stay tuned...
Kevin 
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Well big burst of conevection over the low level center now, looks like its starting to titen up its pulling in all the surrounding convergence in to the center there appers to be a nice band setting up coming in to nw qaudrent. As for whats north of purto rico radar shows some turning nnw of the nw tip of the island its not under the main convection ball to ne nothing to impressive right now, just something else to watch. My thinking is that ball will be very potent energy for izzy down the road, that with warm waters and excelent conditions above i have no doubt that izzy will be this years first major land locked hurricane.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ya know, that swirl (which was definitely low level, the mid level tops from decayed convection were sliding along by it).. was really trucking wnw earlier. the convective burst, which would have started pegged right overhead.. is now probably behind it. it formed around 70w and has apparently stayed there. night really sucks for weak systems.. you just cant tell what theyre doing. ship report earlier near this feature had 30kt SE winds. but right now theres nothing out there to tell whats happening... that was a couple of hours ago.
right now its another case of convective thievery. having convection going away from a tropical system tends to draw its inflow away.. and theres plenty going on over and north of the windward islands. might be starving that little fellow to the south..
well ive been looking at san juan radar, it isnt showing any organization to the convection north of there, in spite of how intense it is. out in the central atlantic near 35/45 there is a bunch of convection supported by an upper trough.. earlier visibles had a small low nearby. might be struggling to get going up there too..
hanna remnants.. hpc track is all over place.. but as far as i can tell the weak surface to mid level system is over north central south carolina moving ene. have to watch it when it gets off hatteras tomorrow for possible hybrid development.
HF 0408z16september
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Anonymous
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Frank your probally right that blow up of convection is probally behind the center now i hate ir to just a big headache especcially the past few years AKA iris and what was the k storm the year before. Anyways Im sick of sitting here next to my comp. I am gonna go watch a movie then go to bed and see what morning vis has in store for us. Night evryone
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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last post was me
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Anonymous
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i say 2 storms they will both take off when they get away from each other
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Suppose anything is possible...the one off Puerto Rico looks really pretty on IR...curious to see what it looks like on visible. By the way, I've not posted in about....a year...so hello again all -- Derek
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Area of convection near PR will be drawn into Isadore's envelope later on tonight/tomorrow. Check out WV this morning on Dominican Republic Close up! Starting to crank now, slowly. But conditions should really improve as time goes by. Gotta start taking this one seriously. CHeers!! Steve H.
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Anonymousnickd
Unregistered
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it's looking rather healthy again this morning...the 00Z model run really likes the state of Florida. Any thoughts?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Looks very impressive just south of Haiti this morning. I ran a 3 hour IR loop and it really increased in convection, size and symetrically in just 3 hours. This thing should jump right to TS Isidore at 11 am. Also, much farther north than yesterday, so more of a potential problem for Florida.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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Can't really trust the models. The majority seem to initialize to far west. Mike.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Today is going to be a very, very big day for what should be TD10 or maybe Isidore at 11:00 AM. Recent vis. imagery shows a very tight and intense ball of convection south of Hispanola working west-northwestward steadily. I expect more thunderstorms to develop around the center as the system moves away from Hispanola today. All interests in Jamaca, Eastern Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Also, I feel the last forecast from yesterday was not thrown off yesterday. This system should become a hurricane after effecting Jamaca. After that I believe Florida may well be in the crosshairs of what may be Hurricane Isidore at that time. Stay tuned, more to come later this morning.
Glad I don't have school today so I can track this system.
Kevin
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Healthy and a good bet for a legitimate threat in 72 hrs...Bastardi said the possibility of a SLOW system toward the end of the period too...I don't like it...the threat is too real for FLA for me to be comfortable...
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doug
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Tony
Unregistered
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GFDL 06Z...Check it out for Invest 99L (TD10) . Shows what was TD10 as 110 mph hurricane off Applchicola Florida with a second system approching the Tampa Bay area. Any comments or explanations welcome. Thanks !!!!!!
Tony
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hey, that nasa zoom satelite is great... looking at TD 10 remnants close up and you can see the banding in the low level stratus on the southwest semicircle of the convection.. so.. its definitely got a low level center near 16/74.. and it is moving wnw.. and getting some ssw shear. all in all tracking a lot slower than before.
based on just this, here's the thought: doesnt really intensify much today or tomorrow, just a tropical storm. passes parallel to and just south of jamaica. begins deepening rapidly wednesday south of grand cayman and turns up nw, crosses western cuba.. yeah, you get the pic.
elsewhere.. system east of bermuda has a well defined turning in the low levels, convection sheared but continuous mostly to the north of its center. TD candidate out near 33/50.
between TD10 remnants and this feature is another one.. related to the convection blowup along the yesterday. another weak low level turning is evident near 25/60, with convection sheared west.
curious feature just off the north coast of the dominican republic, as well.
hanna comes off today, convection in the extreme western gulf.. neither are high prospects. healthy stuff off africa, but theres a strong upper trough near 35-40w ready to get it.
HF 1413z16september
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah tony, binary system crap. likes to make systems to close together and fujiwhara (that is, rotate) them around one another. in the real world this seldom happens.. and one system is usually entrained or killed otherwise.
HF 1416z16september
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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TD10: I'd say some steady intensification through tomorrow followed by a major outbreak after Cuba. The system should also be moving slowly NW and eventually N when it does deepen rapidly. Hope people in Florida stay informed on this one. Early feeling: Nearing west Cuba late Wednesday with 65-70 mile per hour winds. Moves NW a little longer but bombs big time. Winds increase to around 90 miles per hour as the system turns north while moving in tandem with Florida West Coast. Should eventually get turned NE across peninsula. What concerns me is the possibility of the center staying just offshore and intensifying before coming inland. Summed up: A 80-90 knot storm approaching Florida WC and moving north Friday morning. Once the storm gets near Cuba should resemble similarities to Michelle. Except this time the Florida threat is for real. Of course, this is long-term thinking and may change for better or for worse.
Kevin
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Tony
Unregistered
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HanKFrank,
Thanks for the explanantion !! Would the *projected * track towards Appalachilola be the *true* track of this system with a *possible* bogus system being added or is it too early/difficult to tell from this run? Thanks !!!!
Tony
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