Anonymous
Unregistered
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with the way these systems have behaved so far this year, I would expect a track a little further west than currently forecast. Also, the longer it remains weak, the further west it will go, I would expect an initial landfall crossing the tip of the Yucatan then a northwest track turning north then NNE to around Pensacola. No idea on intensity, but would not expect too much considering the season.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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I just dont see it getting to the yucatun. It has already slowed considerably and its moving n of wnw if it were still moving west i would excpect it to get to the yucatun, more likely is a central west cuba cross. As far as intensity goes im with evryone else about it bombing and being a big storm, it reminds me of iris last year the storm that recon couldent find a center then it ended up with 145 mph winds. Now im not saying a cat 4 storm but i wouldent doubt at least 110 + winds for who ever gets to eat this one.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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But look for the first advisory at 5 PM as recon will fly into it in the early afternoon hours.But it looks like a true TD and maybe TS Isidore.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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How's it going Cycloneye? I was just on site and I refreshed the web page (as I always do). Before I refreshed the web page the TD10 header was there, but after I refreshed it the header was gone. I'm pretty sure they are going to issue a STDS soon. If the the recon finding are impressive they may just do one of those special statements saying the recon data has indicated that the depression has reformed. We'll see what happens, but I expect something from rather soon.
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g3/2xpxIRSatellite.html
link shows a definite spin. and if ya look closey and have your screen on a higher res you can see a little area of cold cloud tops that stays in what appears to be a cent with other stronger storms moving around it
or maybe its just that my capt crunch was spiked..
check it out:)
troy
now that th epost went public there is an annoying blip in th eloop. you can still see the general idea of what i meant though
Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 16 2002 03:36 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Those wonderful nutrients and vitamins in the cereal have enchanced your mind and eyes. Okay, enough of that crazy stuff. There is an LLC with this system and it is likely closed. The latest tropical weather outlook stated that recon was nearly to the system and that the system is producing winds near tropical storm force. Probably Isidore now that this is known.
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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where can I find an updated recon plan of the day and recon reports link? the ones at weatherunderground and the USAF site our dated 9/14:(
troy
Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 16 2002 04:40 PM)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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kevin where is the 11am TS?
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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Give Kevin a break! is just waiting for recon information to start posting on it. are not going to stick thier necks out if they don't have to.
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Besides anon the 11:30 mentioned that the recon wasnt quite to the center yet and that winds were near tropical storm force...
they also mention that winds are not particularly favorable for developing...but it looks like its doin ok
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Yes I agree, they're going to wait until the recon reports in. This one makes me nervous though. See the larger banding showing up at high levels from NE of Puerto Rico, north of the Dominican Republic and through the SE Bahamas and Jamaica?? This is all part of the structure that will be Isadore, and they develop when storms enter into favorable conditions that develop major cyclones. Will land interaction prevent strong deepening. Too soon to tell. WIll it hit Florida? Nah, everyone knows that Florida has developed an allergy to these system, so it repels them. Are conditions good for development? Better than i've seen in this area for a long time. We wait for recon. Cheers!! Steve H. 
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Anon: Did I ever say TD 10 at 11AM? Hell no! I said an STDS may be issued later this afternoon. Recon is in now checking it out. From what I saw they had a 29 knot wind at 1500 feet on the west side. That's around 25 miles per hour at surface...so may not quite be near depression strength yet. When the shear lightens up on this one is should really take off, I'd like everybody to mark my word because I'll hold myself to that claim. I've also heard people saying on some other boards that Cuba will chew this system up. Not at all the case. The center of circulation should remain south of eastern Cuba, thus disrupting outflow but not causing any weakening. When this one get over the western side of Cuba we loose the mountains as well. I'm thinking a big blow up near western Cuba...I'm holding myself to it.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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yes you said isadore at 11am kevin. Im just playing with ya. Should of posted that they will hold off on anything to recon goes in. BTW who is Anon?
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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LOL! I did say TS at 11 AM I guess. Thought recon would be in earlier than they did. I think that was in my early morning post though.
P.S., your are anon. Anon is short for anonymous, you aren't registered.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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oh <LOL ok I hope this thing doesnt move through eastern cuba, that would suck and ruin it
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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Actually Kevin, Ya did in an earlier post. 
But that still does mean that anonymous poster should use the semantics of an earlier post to chide someone when,
1)They dont even post a name with thier replies and
2)they use an improper use of the word to. Besides that the word until is a better word to use in place of the too which was spelled wrong.
All i a saying is if you dont want to register atleast add a salutation and include a name with your post if your going to dish out dirt.
Troy
 just playing back at you Mr Anonymous Poster
Edited by troy2 (Mon Sep 16 2002 05:12 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Probably won't move through eastern Cuba unless some type of center relocation occured. Western Cuba, however, is very flat and storms can actually intensifiy over that particular land area. If this storm does what other and myself think it will do, then Florida will have exciting times ahead. On a more serious note, all it really takes is a strong category 1 to do pretty decent damage. I'm thinking a category 2 or 3, we would really be in bad shape then. We'll see what happens.
Kevin
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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A cat 1 like Irene in 99 was very understated. By that I mean the company I worked for on Merrit Island(Brevard County) didnt even know about the storm, Even when it was right over them. Then they realized oh hell there is a tropical cyclone over us and then closed up and sent everyone home. Sent everyone home that morning, when it was at its worst.
It acused major ersoion on the Canaveral National Seashore, it had more windin our than anyone expected and a ton of rain.
This one looks kinda fat already!
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anonnnnn
Unregistered
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I am waiting for the One for this year
It has been a while since Florida felt a storm
Maybe this will be one. Hope Tampa Bay area is spared.
Thanks for all the input. I love reading the information.
JustMe
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Hey troy dont bash people back on spelling. Someone did that to me a week ago and that really pisses me off. I may be a MET but I just have only little time from work to log in here and give a idea on what I and our office feels what might be going on and I dont usually recheck my spelling. Anyways he told Kevin he was just playing with him about where ISADORE was.
Right now, we cant locate a well defined center. Reports coming in from recon shows no center and might not be upgraded now to TS or even TD status at 5 but its a call on the . Another report from recon shows a calm wind or light w wind near 15.6N and 74.8W. They might close it off there but its just a might!! Anyways new AVN is out and showing hardly nothing coming up from the carribean. Just some unsettled weather. Anyways ill post more later and I dont log in. scottsvb HURRICANEUPDATECENTER
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