grasshopper2
Unregistered
|
|
Thank You.
I live here...
28:08:45 N 082:45:25 W
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
hello all,
been reading the posts but not posting.. still caned-out (tornadoed-out) and fussing with the insurance company. this is the best part of the discussions when no system is there and models show one developing. i love reading the imputs from our experts on this. i just have a gut feeling that before the month of october is over the gulf will produce at least one. as far as florida being hit so much this year look at the law of averages. if you average one a year and go three years without one then in the forth year get four you still average one a year. wish i could have a nite like that at the dog track....
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
I agree totally...no pressure for a while...whew!
The Globals spin something up in the bay of campeche in 144, and it is always important to watch the area near Panama.. the Western Carribean is good for one or two before all this is over.
It seems to me climatologically everything this year is skewed about two-three weeks late, so we are really about the 17th of Sept on that calender. If that's the case then the 12th-19th of October should be that mini-peak. The Altantic ridge seems to be cooperating with this theorey..lets see how it play's out.
--------------------
doug
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
|
|
earlier today someone posted that the 8am discussion made little mention of the situation in the central Carribean I just read it and actually it goes into pretty good detail of exactly what exists there. A mid level and surface 1008mb low are situated east of the ULL that is moving wsw toward Honduras..once that clears the says conditions are favorable. The surface low is on land in Columbia but will come northward. Both the ULL to the west and one to the NE will provide good ventilation opportunity for something to grow there. This will be what we need to look at over the next 48 hours or so.
--------------------
doug
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Here are Thomas' thoughts as of noon Friday:
I first began discussing a possible future Tropical Cyclone Matthew back on Friday September 25th, 2004. Well take a look at this satellite image at http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/Tropics.gif . We definitely have a fledgling tropical depression ESE-S of Jamaica. The future strength and path of this
disturbance is all a matter of timing. So everyone from Brownsville, TX to Key West, FL should watch closely. Right now it looks like LA-TX has the best chance with this one but that is subject to change.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
Latest takes something into NO in about a week.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
Grasshopper2
Unregistered
|
|
I thought that system looked like it was getting a little attitude yesterday. Thought I was just crazy..
|
cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
|
|
So nice to be one the empowered ones again. Just got the juice last night around midnight. Funny time to turn on the lights!
Nice to log on and see nothing major in my immediate weather forecast. Looking at the WV loop, I definately see the overall counter-clockwise spin south of Jamaica. But it almost looks like there are two different centers of spin, the most obvious near 18n79w and a minor one near 13n75w. I assume the former is the one with the associated ULL?
--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
|
Staggy
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc: Lutz, FL
|
|
It she now Hurricane Lisa?
01/1745 UTC 37.6N 45.9W T4.0/4.0 LISA
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Dvorak's would say "yes". We'll know at 5:00...
I consider it important only from the "numbers" standpoint (ie my horribly wrong 14/8/3 prediction).
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Grasshopper2
Unregistered
|
|
Doesn't look like your really that far off.
|
Brad
Unregistered
|
|
"We definitely have a fledgling tropical depression ESE-S of Jamaica."
Does anybody agree with that statement? It sure does NOT look like a depression to me, and definitely didn't at noon.
Here are Thomas' thoughts as of noon Friday:
I first began discussing a possible future Tropical Cyclone Matthew back on Friday September 25th, 2004. Well take a look at this satellite image at http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/Tropics.gif . We definitely have a fledgling tropical depression ESE-S of Jamaica. The future strength and path of this
disturbance is all a matter of timing. So everyone from Brownsville, TX to Key West, FL should watch closely. Right now it looks like LA-TX has the best chance with this one but that is subject to change.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
|
Brad
Unregistered
|
|
oops--sorry, didn't mean to re-paste the entire quotation at the bottom of my message
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
It's official
Hurricane Lisa
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Still think we could have 4-6 more storms to come
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
I agree, that's why my forecast is going to bust big time...
And to think, on July 31, we were still at 0/0/0
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
James88
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
|
|
Yep - it's been a crazy couple of months.
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Hate to burst everyone's bubble -- or would that be make everyone's day? -- but there's nothing going on of concern in the Caribbean Sea right now. You are seeing an upper-level low in the SW Carib. enhancing convection south of Jamaica as a result of some diffluence at upper levels. There is no low level circulation, nor is there really any turning, as evidenced in the QuikSCAT hi-resolution scatterometer winds. There are some high wind speeds, but absolutely no sign of a circulation.
Anything developing there will be 3-5 days down the line -- that upper low needs to clear out or build down to the surface, neither of which are going to happen at any fast rate, thankfully. So yes, while Jamaica and locales may see some rain and some gusty winds as a result of the convection...tropical activity isn't really likely for a few days, not there at least.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
ChiBride
Unregistered
|
|
Does any of that mean that another hurricane could hit GOM, more specifically Florida???
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
preface is.. lisa's been upgraded to hurricane. took it a week, but a nice finale.
to restate clark's take on the situation: no, there isn't much low level turning in the sw caribbean. the support mechanism is coming into play, but there isn't much there to cause backing and cyclogenesis at low levels. story changes down the road, as a break in the ridge will exist near the yucatan/in the BOC. bastardi thinks we don't get out of this situation without something forming, my take exactly. right now globals want to take anything down there out to the north and northeast late next week... it'll either be that or what larry did last october (stall, drift south). globals no longer indicating enough ridging to push the surface system into the mexican mainland, though that's fuzzy at this point.
yes, probably a matthew; no, no system today, tomorrow, and probably not even sunday.
small point of interest is the weak swirl near 10/45. it has a little puff of convection that keeps following it... i wonder...
HF 2138z01october
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
