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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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grasshopper2
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Re: Matthew [Re: LI Phil]
      #33409 - Thu Sep 30 2004 09:34 PM

Could someone point me to a place where I can find my exact Latitude and Longatude?

Thanks


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LI Phil
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Lat/Lon [Re: grasshopper2]
      #33410 - Thu Sep 30 2004 10:03 PM

http://stuff.mit.edu/cgi/geo

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

enter your city and state and that's it!

For the wunderground, just enter your zip code

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 30 2004 10:07 PM)


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HanKFranK
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yellow alert/green threat [Re: grasshopper2]
      #33411 - Thu Sep 30 2004 10:12 PM

if hurricane monitoring were like the national terror alert status, that's where we'd be. nothing active aside from a distant fish spinner, and that may or may not change over the weekend.
lisa is heading out and away. it's finally beaten shear only to enter a dry enough environment and cooling SSTs that have let it's convection deteriorate. still showing flashes of will to develop, and it may become a low-rung hurricane over the next day before turning northeast and emptying the basin.
before lisa gets out of the pool the chances of either of the other concern areas developing aren't very significant.. but worth mentioning.
first is a weak wave near 52w which isn't acting so weak anymore.. in fact it has been throwing more convection over the last couple of days. upper winds are mediocre as it is beneath the base of a broad upper trough, and it is at low latitude and has little amplitude... convergence seems to be resultant of faster easterlies rather than backing in the deep tropics.. nonetheless it has the opportunity to slowly organize as it gets closer to the caribbean and into a more favorable environment. it shouldn't develop tomorrow, but may become a tracked invest or something more over the weekend.
to the west a tropical wave and strong convection near the colombian coast are interacting with a weakening upper low in the southwestern caribbean.. the amplitude of the system has increased as the divergence east of the upper low is enhancing convection. as the upper low reorients the support for strong convection should become greatest midway between jamaica and panama tomorrow.. and over the weekend the low pressure shown in the region may begin to organize. GFS continues to develop a weak, broad low in the area and migrate it up towards the yucatan next week. there should be enough ridging to keep it moving wnw or nw over the next five days, should anything start to consolidate. i do expect an invest in the area at the least, by monday.
basin conditions are as such: persisting SOI positive keeping an NAO mostly positive, progressive/trough splitting pattern active, with low to medium amplitude weather systems in the mid latitudes. the potential for hybrid activity of the east coast continues, and warm caribbean and western gulf waters leave the potential for retrograding upper features to trigger disturbances on their trailing flank, when low level energy is available. the cape verde season is closing out, though waves that make it west of the sharp upper trough off NW africa with any amplitude may still try to develop further west.
what we're waiting for right now is a negative SOI shot to cause some backing in the deep tropics, and cause an october storm in the western caribbean.
HF 2207z30september


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BeachBum
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Re: Lat/Lon [Re: LI Phil]
      #33412 - Thu Sep 30 2004 11:33 PM

If you need greater precision, you can enter your street address into DeLorme's Street Atlas USA and it will both pinpoint your location and give your LAT/LONG.

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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Keith234
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Re: Spinning System S of Hati. [Re: grasshopper2]
      #33413 - Thu Sep 30 2004 11:39 PM

Nope, that's just an exposed LLC (low level circulation). This wave might sneak it's way into the GOM and then surprise us all. The other wave is really getting it's act together. Looks like the hurricane season will end with a bang in the Gulf States this year, while the first frost is going on.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Bonus Point Question [Re: Keith234]
      #33415 - Fri Oct 01 2004 12:01 AM

A bonus point question has been posted in the Everything & Nothing forum...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: Keith234]
      #33439 - Fri Oct 01 2004 01:29 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 30 SEP 2004
...DISCUSSION...edited for length-danielw
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. TROUGH FROM THIS FRONT REMAINS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 20N96W TO 25N91W. MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FROM THE SW GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A NEARLY STATIONARY PATTERN. SUMMER SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO FLORIDA TODAY WITH RATHER DRY SURFACE AIR OVER MOST OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N76W IS THE MAIN STORY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM HISPANIOLA TO S AMERICA FROM 70W-75W. LOW IS MOVING W 15 KT WITH EVIDENCE THAT TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE ALONG 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING WESTWARD... LEAVING AT LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ON ITS E SIDE WITH RIDGING FORMING IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FAIRLY LOW WITH ARUBA REPORTING 1008 MB THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. W OF THE LOW.... GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE OCEAN. FARTHER INLAND.. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED TSTM DAY THERE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: danielw]
      #33449 - Fri Oct 01 2004 02:17 AM

Sounds like more gray hairs for Florida and the GOM'ers

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Staggy
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Re: Dr. Gray's Update [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33463 - Fri Oct 01 2004 03:19 AM

Dr. William Gray has released his "Forecast Of Atlantic Hurricane Activity For October 2004 And Seasonal Update Through September"

The entire report can be viewed here.

His forecast for October is:
Named Storms: 3
Named Storm Days: 12
Hurricanes: 2
Hurricane Days: 8
Intense Hurricanes: 0
Intense Hurricane Days: 0
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: 20

In the section called "Florida's Future Hurricane Seasons" he says:

Floridians should view this year's onslaught of hurricane activity as a rare anomaly. This year's landfalling hurricane activity does not by itself represent the beginning or the end of any cycle or trend for landfalling hurricanes. This year will have no bearing on what will occur in future years anymore than the great paucity of Florida landfalling major hurricanes between 1966-2003 had any bearing on this year's landfalling systems. The probability of having hurricane-spawned winds, rain, and storm surge at any spot in any year along the U.S. coastline is very low. We would not recommend that anyone move out of Florida or decide not to move to Florida solely because of the threat of hurricanes. Florida hurricanes must be accepted as one small negative of an otherwise pleasant climate.


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sthorne
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Re: Dr. Gray's Update [Re: Staggy]
      #33464 - Fri Oct 01 2004 03:30 AM

Quote:

Floridians should view this year's onslaught of hurricane activity as a rare anomaly....We would not recommend that anyone move out of Florida or decide not to move to Florida solely because of the threat of hurricanes. Florida hurricanes must be accepted as one small negative of an otherwise pleasant climate.




I certainly hope it's an anomaly, the Treasure Coast is looking like the Wind Whipped Sand Covered Coast. I do have to wonder if we are entering a 50 year period where Florida will see more landfalls.

I do have to admit, I'd be OK if a few less people moved down here Of course, my mother's side of the family has been dealing with Florida Hurricanes for six generations, and most of thier desendants are still here, so there must be a lot to like.


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gailwarning
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Re: Dr. Gray's Update [Re: Staggy]
      #33465 - Fri Oct 01 2004 03:33 AM

While things are quiet, I want to thank you for providing such a valuable service and working so hard to give us your insight. Sometimes it was comforting, sometimes not, but it's better knowing than not.

I've been in NH for several months but am returning to one of the rings of this year's bullseye, Satellite Beach, next week. Our house fared well, and I'm feeling very fortunate.

I will be doing whatever I can to increase our home's hurricane resistance even further. How weird am I? The fact that our home has a hip roof was a key deciding factor in our purchase.

In a small attempt to contribute here, this is a very useful booklet on the subject I found today:
http://www.ibhs.org/natural_disasters/downloads/hurricane10.pdf


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recmod
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Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: danielw]
      #33466 - Fri Oct 01 2004 03:38 AM

Take a look at this GFS Loop....
Something is starting to show up as a NW Caribbean system, moving into the Gulf and eventually over ..... gulp.... Florida...

Of course looong range model projections have a lot of uncertanties. We just need to remain vigilant in Florida.

--Lou


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: recmod]
      #33467 - Fri Oct 01 2004 03:49 AM

Here's a much longer animation. The system actually moves into the GOM and westward toward Tamipco, MX, toward the end of the loop.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp

The models, linked below, haven't updated yet. The new models will have 01OCT04 00Z on them. The 12Z models, from this morning, are Not reflecting any thing in the Carib or GOM, at the time they were issued.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

This has the updated models on it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/


Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 01 2004 04:06 AM)


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recmod
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Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: danielw]
      #33468 - Fri Oct 01 2004 04:04 AM

The link I posted had the full 48 image loop...but it seems to be updating as I write this.
I don't know why the loop Daniel posted shows a dramatically different solution (possibly updating model runs flip-flopping????)
The loop I posted showed the system cross near the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche before turning NE and smacking the West Central Florida coast.....of course, keep in mind this is all pure speculation regarding a system that has not yet even developed...

--Lou


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: recmod]
      #33469 - Fri Oct 01 2004 04:30 AM

That may have been the same loop I saw last night after the update. The loop last night, took it into the GOM and then toward the Big Bend area. If I remember correctly, it didn't give it much of a drop from Sea level. Tropical wave or depression SLPs and winds.
The link I posted above is updating. At the current time 0418Z, it only goes out for a few days. When finished it should go out to 10 days or better.
The Canadian Model on the TCgen link did well for Ivan and Jeanne. Some of the others may have too, but I remember the Canadian as being closet to the landfall area and time.
You may have other links that you prefer. These are just a few of mine. Other than the above mentioned Low S of Haiti/ Dom Rep. I don't see anything eyecatching.
As Phil said earlier,"This bears watching (uh oh...bear watch!), but any development would be slow to occur, but there is a mid/ upper level low present."

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 01 2004 04:31 AM)


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Keith234
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Re: 8PM Tropical Discussion/ Update [Re: danielw]
      #33473 - Fri Oct 01 2004 10:48 AM

That disturbance south of Hati, is an ULL with some of it reaching down to the surface on the Eastern Quad. Convection will once again fire up today and this will prob be a depression by 11 PM tonight. Once you start to get into October. these storms don't remain visible very long during the night, as the nights are longer indirectly cooler. Once we get our first South Indian Ocean cyclone then we can call the CV systems done, just one of my "rules."

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Fri Oct 01 2004 09:38 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 6AM Tropical Update [Re: Keith234]
      #33474 - Fri Oct 01 2004 11:08 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004- October !!
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
ONCE IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE FAVORABLE.
8AM Tropical Wx Discussion doesn't give a much weight as it did last night to the wave in the Caribbean.

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 01 2004 11:10 AM)


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Terri
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Re: 6AM Tropical Update [Re: danielw]
      #33475 - Fri Oct 01 2004 01:40 PM

I read a very interesting article yesterday in the NY Times about the increase in hurricane intensity and their rainfall amounts. This is projected to continue for decades. I apologize for posting this article in its entirety, but you have to be a member to get to the NYT's link. Be sure to read the original study. The link to the study (in PDF format) is found within the article.
September 30, 2004
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By Andrew C. REVKIN

Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to intensify about an extra half step on the five-step scale of destructive power, says the study, done on supercomputers at the Commerce Department's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles from the core would be nearly 20 percent more intense.

Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global warming. But this study is particularly significant, independent experts said, because it used half a dozen computer simulations of global climate, devised by separate groups at institutions around the world. The long-term trends it identifies are independent of the normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have been on display in recent decades.

The study was published online on Tuesday by The Journal of Climate and can be found at www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf

The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away the most comprehensive effort" to assess the question using powerful computer simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has seen the paper but did not work on it. About the link between the warming of tropical oceans and storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."

Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was too soon to know whether hurricanes would form more or less frequently in a warmer world. Even as seas warm, for example, accelerating high-level winds can shred the towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.

But the authors said that even if the number of storms simply stayed the same, the increased intensity would substantially increase their potential for destruction.

Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global warming would lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a point underlined at the United Nations this week by leaders of several small island nations, who pleaded for more attention to the potential for devastation from tidal surges.

The new study used four climate centers' mathematical approximations of the physics by which ocean heat fuels tropical storms.

With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans and atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results were the same: more powerful storms and more rainfall, said Robert Tuleya, one of the paper's two authors. He is a hurricane expert who recently retired after 31 years at the fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas R. Knutson of the Princeton laboratory.

Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual hurricanes using a more powerful version of the same supercomputer simulations that generates Commerce Department forecasts of the tracks and behavior of real hurricanes.

Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State University who was among the first to predict the recent surge in Atlantic storm activity, said the new study was a significant step in examining the impacts of a warmer future.

But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the extraordinary complexity of the oceans and atmosphere made any scientific progress "baby steps toward a final answer."


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LI Phil
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JB [Re: Terri]
      #33476 - Fri Oct 01 2004 02:27 PM

Why am I not surprised the New York Times is pimping global warming...

(sigh)

Anyway, JB this am:

"With this pattern, everything has been pushed southwestward as far as tropical development. It's hard for me to believe that a storm won't come out of the western Caribbean and/or Gulf in this pattern. The system that is near 72 west now will be in the southern Gulf next week, and with the big high to the north, it will either be forced to wait there or be driven into Mexico. But the European 500 mb pattern certainly looks like it's ripe along with the surface map as the big high raises pressures over the Carolinas and the upper flow over the area in question becomes southeast from the western Caribbean to the western Gulf. It looks like the pattern that set off all the activity near Florida, except displaced southwest. In other words, that is where the action looks like it should go too. Again, I would be surprised if we simply left the playing field without another threat to our coast. The most interesting aspect of all this is the idea that, given the timeline, such an event would take enough time to evolve to wait until the amplification cranked in the pattern, again another similarity to Opal which sat down there for several days before the pattern amplified and took it like a rocket out of there."

Nothing imminent, but a bear watch may be needed in the future.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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tpratch
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NY Times and Global Warming [Re: Terri]
      #33477 - Fri Oct 01 2004 02:43 PM

Sure, there's a disclaimer that it's baby steps, however what they don't state is this:

Those computers reach that dataset based upon an increasing trend in global warming which hasn't been shown to be accurate or truthful.

It's a big "IF this, then maybe this" model. Hardly pure emperical science if you ask me


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