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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


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Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #33567 - Mon Oct 04 2004 07:38 PM

Have you guys in Florida had the love bugs like we have here in LA? (lower Alabama) Also, have killed three rattlesnakes (2 yesterday-one in the front yard and one at the back door). We are still waiting on an adjuster. I was typing on a PM about yesterday I was hanging up my clothes in my closet and I guess this is the first time I have been in my closet during day light hours (since the storm), but I could see day light, but not what was causing it. I got a flashlight and looked and one of the flimsiest plastic white coathangers was stuck through my ceiling and still in perfect shape. You can see daylight through it. I knew when I stayed up through the storm that you could hear and feel wind blowing through my air conditioning vents (with no power) actually harder than the air conditioner blows. I guess this is from some sort of suction on my roof??? Anyone else have such? If you tried to make that coat hanger go through the ceiling the coat hanger would smush.?!?!

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User


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Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #33568 - Mon Oct 04 2004 07:52 PM

Kimberly, we must have had air blowing thru the vents because our house was incredibly dusty after Charley. Another strange thing was that the clothes dryer, which vents to the roof, had lots of lint blown back down to the back-side of the lint filter.

--Fay


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


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Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #33569 - Mon Oct 04 2004 07:56 PM

I guess I better check there since my dryer also vents through the roof. My husband suffered a stroke last August and can't do any of the work now. We are incredibly BLESSED though, to have a roof to fix, etc. I have learned to be thankful because it can ALWAYS be worse.

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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sthorne
Weather Watcher


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Re: CFHC-You're new source for earthquake discussion... [Re: Unregistered User]
      #33570 - Mon Oct 04 2004 07:57 PM

Quote:

anyone notice that hurricanes have come thru Central Florida every three weeks?

If this pattern holds, next one should be October 16th.




Perish the thought! That's my daughter's 9th birthday, and we have CF plans.


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sthorne
Weather Watcher


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Re: Lisa Hurricane Again, but Tropics Remain Mostly Quiet still [Re: MikeC]
      #33571 - Mon Oct 04 2004 08:01 PM

This is the best I've seen this page for a couple of months...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

I shall savor it for the moment.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #33572 - Mon Oct 04 2004 08:11 PM

The area of disturbed weather in the GOM is showing signs of strengthening, some moderate to isolated strong convection. Usually the storms that form next to the Yutcatan peninusula produce massive amounts of rain e.g Allison not that much wind, though. This storm has the potential to be a gully washer as indicated by some of the well-known models, something to watch for sure. Another possible area of concern would be the behind the TUTT in the Leeward islands. The TUTT's really start to ramp up in the early fall months and provide shear... sometimes the storms pass under these TUTT's and can develop. Neverless, another area of concern down the road. The minor peak in October seems evident.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re:Let's change things up a little. [Re: ticka1]
      #33574 - Mon Oct 04 2004 08:27 PM

Something's up. All our local tv people are saying starting tonight we're gonna get rain, sometimes heavy but that on Thursday it's *really* gonna come down....

Kinda wondering how heavy that 'heavy' rain will be. They don't call Central Texas "Flash Flood Capital" for nothing... don't worry tho- I know what those big rulers standing on the side of the road are for and there aren't any near our house

'shana


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LI Phil
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JBs GOM Threat thoughts... [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33575 - Mon Oct 04 2004 08:43 PM

"The Gulf looks dirty this morning, and a setup for a drenching coastal rain for Texas and Louisiana is there, and with it comes the chance for tropical development. The type of development it would be is more along the lines of an Allison or Frances (1998 version), a system that concentrates its energy so that big wind and rain problems would occur only near and northeast of the center. The tropical wave is now in the southern Gulf. The idea is its energy feeds northward toward the Texas coastal bend over the next several days. This develops low pressure near or just east of the South Texas coast by Wednesday night, which then drifts slowly northward or northeastward. The tightening gradient between the low and the big high to the northeast sends a large area of 20- to 35-knot east to southeast winds through the northern Gulf, which tighten up and focus over the northwest Gulf Thursday and Friday.

Even without such development, this is a nasty-looking rain threat. The development would just tack a name onto it, and chances are that we could be going toward one of those arguments (as with Allison) that still persists as to what it is. However, the practical weather aspect right now is that there is a flood threat later in the week for southeast Texas and Louisiana. The flood threat earlier is out on the southern High Plains. There is probably going to be an area where there is not nearly as much rain.

The Canadian and UKMET and GFS are all lined up with northwestern Gulf development and the one needs a calculator for Canadian rain amounts. Suffice it to say this has been talked about here for awhile. Right now, I see no need to change the idea on the threat as far as the heavy rain goes. Whether or not there is a fight on Friday as to if it is named, my feeling now is there is a good chance that at least tropical-storm force winds are in the northwest Gulf out of this Thursday night or Friday. But as we saw with Allison, we don't need a deep storm to do the dirty work as the lowest pressure at first landfall was only 1003 mb."

Hey Keith, you got your lat/lon backwards! Unless that is, you live in Greenland part time

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


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Rain in SE Texas [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33576 - Mon Oct 04 2004 08:46 PM

Actually them forecasting this big rain event for SE Texas may be a good thing. Usually when they predict a big rain event it doesn't happen. It's when they DON'T forecast it is when we are in trouble, ala...ALLISON. On Ivan's second trip around we were suppose to get almost 10 inches and didn't get a drop. I've been tracking this stat for a while because I noticed this trend a long time ago. Maybe it's just a SE Texas thing!

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Rain in SE Texas [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #33577 - Mon Oct 04 2004 08:58 PM

Possibly. The thing is... we're in Austin so I'm kinda confused as to where we are getting all this rain from. One station said the coming cold front (the last one over the weekend gave us 3" of rain in almost 2 hours, then 89F on Sunday.) and another says 'developing situation in the Gulf'.

Hard to figure out - normally if we get severe Gulf weather, it has to come in way south of Houston then curve around...

As far as I know tho, only Carla made it this far inland as a hurricane. One tracking site I saw shows that Carla was a cat 3 (dropping to a Cat 1 rapidly) when she got here, but that's kinda difficult to imagine... so I figure at most we'll just get rain here. If it gets this far.


'shana

--------------------
"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Rain in SE Texas [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #33578 - Mon Oct 04 2004 09:05 PM

I think they're right this time, people learn from there mistakes and usually correct them. The trough, over parts of northern Texas is experincing some very heavy rain. This trough will then be followed by a strong ridging, which inturn will create a "bleeding" southwest flow, as some people like to call it. The storm therefore will have a choice, which is mainly dependent on how far down the trough digs, and the ridge builds which could be quite a lot. Some temps in Texas are only suppose to top off at 70 degrees f, that's pretty cool for there. If this is a rain event for Texas coastline, the rain will be enhanced by the by the southwest flow and the baroclinic atmosphere, this could possibly lead to a hybird storm as banding features develop, isolated convection on one side of the storm.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Rain in SE Texas [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33579 - Mon Oct 04 2004 09:08 PM

You're going to get rain from both of the systems, the cold front and the depression, whatever it may be. Fist there is quite a lot of blocking upstream going on, possible Omega block, this will push the cold front more southerly then usually. In the winter time, this upper level pattern feature would lead to some nasty nor' easter but then again that is pretty far away.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: FLASH FLOOD WARNING [Re: Keith234]
      #33582 - Tue Oct 05 2004 12:54 AM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2004


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A


* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN...
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN FLORIDA



* UNTIL 215 AM EDT


* AT 809 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC AND THE BRADFORD COUNTY
SHERIFF INDICATED THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN THE LAWTEY AREA
NEAR COUNTY ROAD 225 WEST. WHILE THE CAUSE OF THE FLOODING IS
NOT YET KNOWN...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LEVEE ON A RETENTION
POND HAS FAILED CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF IMMEDIATELY
SURROUNDING AREAS.

* AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE LAWTEY.


Additional information, below, from NWS Jacksonville Area Forecast Discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2004

. HYDRO...UPDATE...HAVE TALKED TO EM IN BRADFORD COUNTY AND WAS UNABLE TO CONFIRM PUBLIC REPORT OF FLOODING DUE TO POSSIBLE LEVEE FAILURE... FLOODED ROADS WERE LEFT OVER RESULTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN JEANNE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND UPDATE WITH FLOOD STATEMENT CONCERNING FLOODING ON SOME SECONDARY ROADS IN THE COUNTY.


Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 05 2004 06:47 AM)


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Hurric
Weather Guru


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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave [Re: Keith234]
      #33583 - Tue Oct 05 2004 01:32 AM

School opened for most kids in county after a month off for the twin canes in area. More schools will open each day as they can be readied.
One interesting thing was that several of the buses had national guardsman in two man teams driving. I guess the driver shortage is even worse now. No dounbt a lot of the drivers are working in the recovery efforts.
Wrote a list of damages for the adjuster. Nothing really terrible but it sure adds up when you look at it written down.
The quiet time in tropics is oh so welcome. I hope everyones recovery is at least on track.
Hope folks in texas get some rain without the flooding.
Hurric


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Loc: Orlando, FL
My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: Keith234]
      #33584 - Tue Oct 05 2004 04:12 AM

Hi Everyone,
In the much appreciated "down-time" of tropical activity, I have been working on putting together a little web-page of images from the hurricanes of 2004. Most of the pictures were taken by myself locally here in central Florida. There are pages included of media photos to round out the picture portfolio depicting the destruction these storms dealt Florida. The project is still a work in progress. I have finished with Charley and Frances, and will be updating the Ivan and Jeanne pages in coming days. Check it out and let me know what you think:
The Hurricane Season Of 2004

--Lou


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: recmod]
      #33585 - Tue Oct 05 2004 10:33 AM

Great page, I think Sadie (another user) could actually use this page to help her on her project about hurricanes. Man those rainbands bring a lot of rain.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave [Re: Hurric]
      #33587 - Tue Oct 05 2004 10:48 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: The Gulf of Mexico Disturbance and the other Wave [Re: danielw]
      #33588 - Tue Oct 05 2004 10:54 AM

They always say that, it's like they have next to them a rubic of sentences to say. "All's well that end's well" No harm meant forecaster Stewart. Also, I metioned about the TUTT and how they shear the storms, got to get some points on that one.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Tue Oct 05 2004 10:58 AM)


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Terri
Weather Watcher


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Re: My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: recmod]
      #33589 - Tue Oct 05 2004 01:17 PM

Quote:

Hi Everyone,
In the much appreciated "down-time" of tropical activity, I have been working on putting together a little web-page of images from the hurricanes of 2004.



Excellent job, Lou! A picture truly says a thousand words.


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Generator Reimbursement [Re: Terri]
      #33590 - Tue Oct 05 2004 02:10 PM

I received this PM from FL Marilyn...perhaps someone who has received reimbursement can better answer this question than I:

"I noticed that on Sept 24th you had mentioned people who had bought a generator will be reimbursed. Would you happen to know who I can contact or what website I may need to go to so I may find out how what application I will need to fill out? I only heard about this - I haven't received any information. "

I know a few of you mentioned this (reimbursement). Is it done through FEMA? Any replies would greatly be appreciated.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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