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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: recmod]
      #33591 - Tue Oct 05 2004 02:14 PM

Lou, great work...maybe Mike will make that a permanent link on the site...don't forget to credit skeeter for his map though

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Re: My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: recmod]
      #33592 - Tue Oct 05 2004 02:56 PM

Quote:

Check it out and let me know what you think:
The Hurricane Season Of 2004



Very nice work.

Is Frances really finished? If you do not wish to add media photos for Frances, including the following link would provide a good perspective of Frnces beyond Casselberry.

Hurricane Frances Photo Gallery

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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BeachBum
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
Hurricane Frances Photo Gallery [Re: BeachBum]
      #33593 - Tue Oct 05 2004 03:22 PM

My local paper also has a gallery.
Hurricane Frances Galleries

--------------------
From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W


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anony
Unregistered




Re: Generator Reimbursement [Re: LI Phil]
      #33594 - Tue Oct 05 2004 03:40 PM

Gernerator reimbursements are through FEMA, you need to call the 1-800-621-FEMA number. You can only be reimbursed if you are in a county that has been decalred for individual assistance. They will tell you if you are eligible when you call.

sc


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Storm Cooper
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Re: My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: LI Phil]
      #33595 - Tue Oct 05 2004 04:21 PM

That is nice work Lou! I wish I had got more shots but our damage was not that bad except for the tornados. The post by anony regarding generators is correct. FEMA has ad's running here for that and they include chain saws also.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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FelixPuntaGorda
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Punta Gorda, FL
Re: Generator Reimbursement [Re: anony]
      #33596 - Tue Oct 05 2004 05:38 PM

Our homeowners insurance paid for our generator, so be sure to check that out, too.
---
Fay


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Another fine weekend [Re: FelixPuntaGorda]
      #33598 - Tue Oct 05 2004 07:13 PM

Just a bit of the AFD from Tally....

.LONG TERM...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NE TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH EFFECTS
FROM THE DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY BEGIN
IMPACTING THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING WHEN AND WHERE WILL IT
DEVELOP...AND WHETHER IT WILL BE SUBTROPICAL OR PURELY BAROCLINIC.
IN ANY EVENT...IF IT DOES TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH...IT COULD BE A
DECENT RAIN PRODUCER OVER THE CWA WITH PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
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stuff worth watching [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33601 - Tue Oct 05 2004 08:45 PM

both the systems mentioned in the two have the potential to develop, in spite of the downplay they're officially getting. as the tallahassee extended discussion mentions, the true nature of the gulf system will be questionable (nhc is stand-offish about hybrids), and the system east of the antilles should be drawn up into a deep trough in the central atlantic. both will be trying to develop in a baroclinic environment, so i'm guessing NHC may choose to ignore them unless their appearances are clearly on the tropical side. should be a defined low near the tx/mx border by late thursday moving ne. evolution of the atlantic system highly dependent on how much energy is entrained into the max on the trough cutting off this weekend.
kay and the invest pair in the eastpac have the atlantic response timer going.. sometime 5-10 days from october 4th there will quite possibly be an atlantic feature that goes (or features that go). don't think the globals are reading into things right now.. pattern will evolve differently than what GFS keeps indicating (trending to zonal in the extended period) if SOI goes solidly negative (which it ought to before too long).
HF 2041z05october


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: Pearland,Tx
Gulf Stuff [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33602 - Tue Oct 05 2004 09:29 PM

I just don't see this panning out for us here in the Houston area for all this rain. I think this system will track more towards the NE and that will put us on the drier side. Again, when they predict a major rain event or flooding, like they are right now, it doesn't seem to happen that way.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Gulf Stuff [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #33603 - Tue Oct 05 2004 09:30 PM

I'm not expecting any real development other than rain out of the current systems, least for now.

I did put up a Mt. St Helens animated cam in the style of the mobile cam though

http://new.flhurricane.com/mshcam.php


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: stuff worth watching [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33604 - Tue Oct 05 2004 10:32 PM

About the El nino SOI phase thing, I've been noticing that it's very similar to that of 2002 except earlier. The one thing I can't find info on is what negative and positive mean in such things like the ENSO, the NAO, MJO, and the PNA? Thanks!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: stuff worth watching [Re: Keith234]
      #33605 - Tue Oct 05 2004 11:57 PM

The Genensis parameter is starting to move much farther north by the Bremuda area. The SOI phase as HF said is going will be or is forecasted to go negative, which will create systems to start favoring an baroclinic nature. Since we're not that busy, me in particular; I like to observe hybird storms. A good indicator of where to look for hybird storms to delveop, is when a very strong high is near an area some vorticity and lift, it could possibly help the storms in two ways, tapping into a cold pool and providing some strong ULD (upper level divergence). Just something to watch if you're not busy.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: My Hurricane Web-Page [Re: BeachBum]
      #33608 - Wed Oct 06 2004 02:12 AM

Quote:

Is Frances really finished? If you do not wish to add media photos for Frances, including the following link would provide a good perspective of Frances beyond Casselberry.




Actually, Frances was completed EXCEPT for the media pictures page. I just spent several hours fixing up the images and uploading all of them.
Thanks for all the kind words regarding this project. I will be completing it over the next several days.
Hurricane Season 2004

--Lou


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: stuff worth watching [Re: Keith234]
      #33610 - Wed Oct 06 2004 01:15 PM

Looks like a fall pattern setting up across the country. Nothing real favorable for tropical development now. Could this meanan early end to the season, at least for landfalling systems?? I get the feeling that one more strong system will evolve out of the western Caribbean, possibly the third week of October. Other than that nothing more will threaten the US. Thoughts? Very quiet out there. I think everyone posting from the southeast US has had enough tropical weather this year

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anony
Unregistered




Re: stuff worth watching [Re: Keith234]
      #33611 - Wed Oct 06 2004 01:47 PM

hybrid, not hybird

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: stuff worth watching [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33612 - Wed Oct 06 2004 03:54 PM

As of today, there seems to be at least a mid level low near 21N and 97W, and in the visible that may actually be reflected to the surface ...not strong...Bastardi calls this an "open" system on the west but with gales and 9' seas...and ultimate destination across the big bend of Florida and into the ATL.
Mets here(Tampa media) have added rain and wind to forecasts for Monday/Tuesday.
It remains to be seen if this will be seen as "tropical", but I doubt it unless, as some have stated, it looks the part completely. Another land falling tropical system this year , espec. in Florida has too many implications economically.

--------------------
doug


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: stuff worth watching [Re: doug]
      #33613 - Wed Oct 06 2004 05:04 PM

12Z GFS not too bullish on the GOM system right now, as well as other models. Let's watch and see how this evolves. For the longer range, the GFS shows a strong low developing in the western GOM day 9, then taking it to the panhandle and up to the NE US as a strong nor'easter. Again that's long range, so let's see how the models play both features over the next few days. Cheer!!

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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: stuff worth watching [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33614 - Wed Oct 06 2004 07:20 PM

Tally ADF....

.SHORT TERM...GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
GULF...THAT IS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO ON INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ETA HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION...TRACKING SLOWER AND MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND SITUATED
IN AR BY 84 HRS. HARD TO GO AGAINST GFS SOLUTION AND WILL TEND TOWARDS IT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE ACCEPTED A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND THE
DGEX. THE 06Z GFS HAS THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DGEX TENDS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE
TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AFTER CHATTING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
APPLY GREATER WEIGHT TO THE GFS. BASED ON WHAT IS SEEN IN THE MODELS...DO
NOT THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
NOT AGAIN!!!!! [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33616 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:15 PM

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on October 6, 2004


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area
of low pressure has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This
system is expected to move slowly northward with some potential for
development during the next day or two.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
finally [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #33617 - Wed Oct 06 2004 09:28 PM

there.. they've decided to recognize it for what it is at last. if the GFS ideas and the forecast philosophy of the previous discussions pans out, this system will track into a heavy shear environment and become baroclinic in nature. a more northward than eastward track will result in a lopsided, sheared low of dubious tropical nature. the other option is that it develops quickly and jets ENE into the gulf like josephine did back in '96. if it's up near brownsville tomorrow, nix that idea.. but if it deepens overnight into a classified system watch out NE gulf coast.
strung out disturbed weather from east of the antilles to up northeast of bermuda is a developing complex system that should have a low moving northward over the weekend bombing out (most likely extratropical).. with a deep layer low forming on it's western flank over marginal waters. minor potential for a short lived high latitude hybrid here. further south wave energy is plodding west into shear and mostly being drawn northward.
SOI just went negative today, so backing in the deep tropics may start upping the chances of caribbean action, or even more action in the southeast atlantic.. next week. nothing really showing up on the long range, but the pattern should begin to dictate where disturbed weather musters.
also, as mentioned by steve h, deep trough forecast to descend into the eastern u.s. near mid-month, with a noreaster-type storm running from the gulf up the appalachains/atlantic coastal plain the weekend after this one. the associated pattern would favor a storm coming up out of the caribbean were there to be one present.. something to keep in mind. the globals aren't seeing anything just yet...
HF 2126z06october

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 06 2004 09:29 PM)


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