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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #33663 - Thu Oct 07 2004 06:43 PM

Not so sure about this becoming more then a major rainmaker, judging from what I've seen, but who knows. Pensacola could really use some rain, its like a dry tenderbox here with dead trees and limbs piled high in every neighborhood. But rain could also be a bad thing because everyone has tarps up on there roof, in my neighborhood, every single house needs roof repairs but its gonna be awhile. Ya'll have a good one.

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: Unregistered User]
      #33664 - Thu Oct 07 2004 06:53 PM

Scott: don't disagree with your analysis on the future nature of this system, but the surface low is broad and still appears off shore to me.

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Five for Florida? [Re: doug]
      #33666 - Thu Oct 07 2004 07:19 PM

your seeing the mid level low off the coast. The LLC is on the coast and will weaken more as a low forms off the texas coast.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33668 - Thu Oct 07 2004 08:25 PM

While I see how the center could re-form under the mass of convection near the TX-Mex Border, I would be willing to say that the circulation down to the south (around 96W and 22N) could be classified as a weak depression without too many arguements against. (other than the arguement of, it's transient and shortlived....)

Mark


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Five for Florida? [Re: Bloodstar]
      #33669 - Thu Oct 07 2004 09:04 PM

The LLC or were I see retrograde motion of the cloud's is burrowed behind the cloud mass. Just as anticapated the cloud convection and cloud cover is reserved to the north or ahead of the storm. With that front pulling down, (only 74 in Dallas today) we could possibly see a mix of baroclinic forcing and convection fueling this mess, this will generate some nasty storms. The CAPE and the SWEAT values should be awfully high, tonight as there is an adbundance of low-level mositure and some significant lifting. In layman terms, a whole mess, those thunderstorms could produce some squall like weather and tornados. Be safe!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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recon [Re: Keith234]
      #33672 - Thu Oct 07 2004 09:50 PM

EXTRAP 1007 MB?
winds 35kts?

is it a true TD?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: recon [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33673 - Thu Oct 07 2004 09:53 PM

See this is what I don't get, how does a 1007 mb storm produce 40 mph winds? If a storm has that much wind and seems to be strengthening one should lower the pressure in proportion. Prob. a TD at 11 pm or they'll make a special advisory.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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water vapor [Re: Keith234]
      #33674 - Thu Oct 07 2004 10:31 PM

what is going on?

been watching system in BOC and the front across mid us.... trying to figure whats happening, and i just see alot of moisture....but there seems to a chance something could happen....right now i see a TS bonnie like formation.....

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: recon [Re: Keith234]
      #33675 - Thu Oct 07 2004 10:37 PM

I doubt any classification yet--I'll say probably Saturday morning

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Anony
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Keith234]
      #33676 - Thu Oct 07 2004 10:43 PM

Even with 35kts and 1007, if you don't see a vortex message, that means no closed circulation= no storm.

1007 could easily produce 35 kts...especially with higher than usual atmospheric pressures in the environment.

For example--Andrew was a 45 mph TS with 1015 cp at one point!

sc


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Keith(234)
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Anony]
      #33677 - Thu Oct 07 2004 11:17 PM

1007 just seems high for 40 mph winds, but you're right there are higher then nornmal heights in the enviorment and some some good pressure gradient flow. It's on it's way to having a closed circulation, I do think that it will become a hybird type storm because it's forming in an area of shear and there's a jet following the cold front down, which will provide some mixing. Maybe the southern portion of the storm will become a TD or TS and the northern portion will be a hybird. Just a thought. Fogot to login, whoops!

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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: recon [Re: Keith(234)]
      #33678 - Thu Oct 07 2004 11:29 PM

hybrid keith---not hybird...

sc


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: recon [Re: summercyclone]
      #33679 - Fri Oct 08 2004 12:08 AM

sorry, but you get the point...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: recon [Re: Keith234]
      #33680 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:01 AM

beginning to look a bit like Josephine did on 10-5-96 95L

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: recon [Re: Rabbit]
      #33682 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:03 AM

The pressure is up to 1010 and the wind is down 25 kts...what will the 11 pm advisory say? These things are diurnal, nothing really happens at night, don't want to jynx anything thing, right Rabbit!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: Keith234]
      #33684 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:12 AM

pressure isnt up to 1010mb its at 1007mb

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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33685 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:14 AM

Also at nightime a tropical system gets better organized compared to a baroclonic system. The humidity, heat release over the warm waters and other factors play into the role of stronger TS and that leads to lower pressures.

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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Scott, I'm confused... [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33687 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:27 AM

Earlier you said the LLC was over Mehico, but tonight it seems as though you still think this is a TD (which I think it WILL be, but just not yet). Is this going to transition into an extratrop or baroclinic system, or will this possibly become Matthew?

And, the percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams

BP for the IDer

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: recon [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33688 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:33 AM

The NRL site must not have been updated. And I know about diurnal convection leading to nightime convection , say the insolation takes say 6 hours to radiate then the lowest temp at the surface we'll be observed at 3 in the morning then and the highest in the upper atmosphere, that's if there's no wind (mixing) and the lapse rates are similar throughout the troposphere.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Scott, I'm confused... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33690 - Fri Oct 08 2004 01:51 AM

Quote:

And, the percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new car
From the profit he's made on your dreams





Traffic?

'shana


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