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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
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Re: lets wake up [Re: doug]
      #33714 - Fri Oct 08 2004 04:31 PM

Sounds somewhat like a conversation I just had with someone.... and for the most part I agree with ya"!

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: lets wake up [Re: LI Phil]
      #33715 - Fri Oct 08 2004 04:52 PM

I agree somewhat with JB on this. What worries me is at 500mb where what's left of the troughiness north of the Lesser Antilles gets pulled further westward and merges and develops the storm in the GOM after it crosses Florida/GA somewhere. Where on the east coast that setup is,has my attention. It could be anywhere from Miami to Savannah, then move northward. The Globals have been showing something hanging there (outside of the Gale that will head to Canada) for a few days now, but have the tropical low moving into the midwest, but hanging back a piece of energy. The NOGAPS did this the other day as it showed the low in the Atlantic spitting off another low to its southwest, then eventually getting sucked up into the north Atlantic. A long shot, but something like Joe's Hazel idea could pan out in some manner. We'll wait and watch. In the meantime I'll go secure the tarps on my roof Cheers!!

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Cocoa Beach
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More West [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33716 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:08 PM

Looking at the link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

Certainly looks like it will be further West than LA.
This morning they had it runnung the coast of LA.
I'm leaving for Texas and won't be back until Monday.
Here's my guess...
A Tropical Storm hit for Tampa through Big Bend come
Sunday/Monday.

Stay Safe


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: lets wake up [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33717 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:18 PM

Over the last 24hours the LLC that went inland near Tampico dissapaited while the midlevel low stayed offshore. As the night progresed into the predawn hours a new LLC developed just south of the midlevel low as pressures in the area were relatively low near 1007mb and strong TS with cloud tops as cold as -60 were over the area. Nevertheless a new LLC has formed (which happens alot with broad area of low pressures) and recon is being sent in again to find out not only if this is a TD but if this is a tropical storm. I'm not sure if they will call it a storm but if they find any pressure lower then what we have now then I feel it should be named. Winds over the gulf in the strong convection show wind gusts up to 48mph and close to tropical storm strength offshore the LA coast. Movement should be off to the NE and then go ENE nearing the coast. I feel the models are too N with the movement of the system but its not out of the question. Westerlys are pretty far south right now and might dig just alittle more. Strength is hard to tell. Models expect this to come inland in 24-36hours. If it stays more ENE then it wont make landfall till Sunday night or Monday morning and that will give it more time to strengthn. Water temps are marginal from N.O. thru Panama City but farther offshore near 83dg. Water temps near Tampa are near 82dg. I expect it can have a chance to get close to Hurricane strength later Saturday night into Sunday morning if it goes more ene although shear will be the main inhibitor. The shear will though be less also if it stays more ene cause it will be further south from the main westerly shear north of the system. Also the system will be moving along with the flow of the upper winds so the shear will be less. Anyways right now its recon and NHC call then we can figure out the exact path and strength. I feel this will be at least 50-60mph at landfall but again it could be up to Hurricane strength by sunday morning as I see it could go further east.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: lets wake up [Re: scottsvb1]
      #33718 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:28 PM

Nice job once again! I don't see really anything to disagree with... I know I will get WET no matter what!

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HanKFranK
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incipient matthew [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33720 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:46 PM

nhc is waiting for their vortex message, probably so they can decide whether matthew will be tropical or subtropical. based on the core temperatures on yesterday's recon i'd say it is a tropical entity ahead of a baroclinic zone, but of course there's no telling what NHC will decide to call it. all of the weather is east of the center.. unless it accelerates some (don't buy that north-movement crap the globals are trying to give it.. GFS is treating it like a part of the upper trough).. think ene like that option i was pondering a couple days ago.. towards the se louisiana to panhandle region. my ideas aren't too far removed from what scott says, though that stuff about a mid-level vortmax being a depression hitting mexico the other day i didn't dig at all. think it will start shearing out as it nears the coast, too much in the way of westerlies.. if it reintensifies north of 30n after passing into the atlantic more than likely it will no longer be tropical.
complex deep layer system is developing in the central atlantic.. modeling starting to look more like a crossover tropical system rather than a gale center.. another iffy scenario with how NHC handles these things.
yet another deep layer low is forecast to dig southward near the azores and long range modeling looks suspicious there as well. low amplitude wave flaring near 50w is entering a favorable zone and may begin to look more ominous, though that will be a slow, low potential feature if anything.
there's an ITCZ vortmax south of the gulf of tehuantepec that models are developing in the eastpac some.. taking it wnw. i don't buy that quick movement, think it may be festering more and moving nnw. wait/see, but it gives me some ideas.
soi solidly negative, big typhoon heading for the south coast of honshu in japan... something could well pop in the deep tropics in the next few days. with the current longwave positions the sw caribbean and near the antilles look like the areas to watch... going into next week. GFS keeps speeding up that sharp amplification into the eastern u.s. late next week.. if something is in the western caribbean early next week then florida will have some worries.
HF 1745z08october


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Ronn
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Re: lets wake up [Re: doug]
      #33721 - Fri Oct 08 2004 05:59 PM

The NHC is waiting on recon info to determine if this is a TD. It sure looks like one to me. There is really no reason to rush classification of this system. It is weak and the NHC does not want to create a frenzy if it is not necessary. I concur with that discretion. With that said, this system is likely to become Matthew shortly. It has enough tropical characteristics to classify it as such. The NHC will not refrain from classifying this system if the recon reports a closed surface low and appropriate wind speeds.

This system is typical of many October tropical cyclones that interact with mid latitude troughs. It will be lop-sided, and it will struggle with vertical stacking, but it will have a good chance of becoming a 65-70mph TS, like Josephine in 1996. It will maintain enough tropical characteristics through landfall, at which time it will be completing its conversion to a baroclinic low.

Another quick point. We always need to carefully watch out for re-formations of the LLC in these systems. Sometimes, a new LLC will form closer to the MLC and beneath deeper convection, leading to bursts of intensification, and slight track changes. TS Gordon of 2000 reminds me of this.

God Bless,
Ronn


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: incipient matthew [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33722 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:03 PM

Well hank Tampico radar and with surface reports and offshore buoys showed the LLC yesterday moving inland and did go inland. Cant argue with surface reports. Now was it a TD? No, thats up to the NHC but everything shows it was a LLC.Cant argue with the truth.
maybe it was some kind of meso-vortex in the larger area of low pressure, pinwheeling around the broad circulation. remember even now there's still a strung-trough associated with the system. no, there wasn't a t.d. crossing the mexican coast yesterday... but it was a worthwhile thing to notice. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Oct 08 2004 08:18 PM)


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Anony
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Ronn]
      #33725 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:38 PM

Think Earl, 1995.....

sc


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LI Phil
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33726 - Fri Oct 08 2004 06:40 PM

I think you mean ERIN...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ronn
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33727 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:09 PM

I believe your are referring to Earl in 1998 which was a very asymmetric hurricane. I doubt that our current system will reach hurricane status. Earl was an early September storm and had less westerlies to contend with.

Ronn


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Anony
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Re: lets wake up [Re: LI Phil]
      #33728 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:15 PM

No Earl...had wrong year./...96 wasn't it?

sc


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Rabbit
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33729 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:20 PM

JOsephine, 1996

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Anony
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33730 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:18 PM

Duh, yep 1998---one of those active years...oh year, that could be any since 95......

sc


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Anony
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33731 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:23 PM

Recon is closing off....had 070, then 090, then 252 degreee winds as it circles around the center...pressure on latest, to south of center was 1005 mb, winds 38 kts

sc


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Storm Cooper
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33732 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:29 PM

NRL...14L?

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LI Phil
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Anony]
      #33733 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:28 PM

Hmmmm...not looking as good on WV loop and Dvorak's "only" 1.5/1.5.

Interesting what recon found...

If you read JBs afternoon missive he is absolutely LIVID with NHC right now...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33734 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:30 PM

Quote:

NRL...14L?




Sumbeatch...looks like TD 14 @ 5:00.

Buckle up...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Kimberley Clark
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Re: lets wake up [Re: LI Phil]
      #33735 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:43 PM

Where can you get JB's column?

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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LI Phil
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Re: lets wake up [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #33736 - Fri Oct 08 2004 07:53 PM

Quote:

Where can you get JB's column?




http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/pro_benefits.asp

You can try it free for 30 days (you need a credit card), but it's been worth every penny...it's about $.50/day ($14.95/mo). If you do sign up, make sure you get accuwx PRO, not Premium; no JB on premium

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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