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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda
      #33861 - Sun Oct 10 2004 03:06 PM

Sunday 5PM Update:
STS Nicole has just about been drifting in place for the past six hours - currently about 100 miles west of Bermuda. A northward track is still anticipated. At 5PM Bermuda reported winds out of the south southeast at 45mph gusting to 55mph, i.e., tropical storm force. Which makes me wonder about the usefulness of the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. Note that Bermuda is also under a Gale Warning. At 5PM NHC estimates central pressure at 1000mb and Bermuda reports central pressure at 1001mb.
Added: At 5:22PM pressure at Hamilton is down to 1000mb.
ED

Original Post:
STS Nicole, the fourteenth named storm of the season, has developed from an upper level cold core system, and is located about 80 miles west of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are about 45mph and some intensification is expected as the storm moves north toward Nova Scotia. Bermuda is currently under a gale warning and a Tropical Storm Watch.

Matthew is now a Tropical Depression over southeast Louisiana (about 40 miles west of New Orleans) and the NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. TD Matthew should continue to move north over the next 48 hours and eventually dissipate. All Tropical Storm Warnings associated with Matthew have been discontinued.

Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic may have some potential for development in a few days, however, shear is on the increase in the Atlantic Basin.
ED

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 10 2004 10:08 PM)


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Rabbit
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33868 - Sun Oct 10 2004 05:02 PM

Nicole looks like it is moving more west than north right now, and Matthew looks like an extratropical system now

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Keith234
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33870 - Sun Oct 10 2004 07:19 PM

If you look at the bermuda radar, your can clearly see the rainbands pretty heavy rain considering not much convection is going on. It should start to make a trasition to tropical, then as the water become increasing cooler it will become extratropical gale. A recent quickstat pass indicated the strongest winds were confined to the east of the center at roughly 48 mph. She seems very organized and the upper-level trough that is supporting her is deepening, maybe we can squeeze another sub-tropical storm out of this. The NAO is going positive should bring about some ridging in the eastern atlantic causing the strong cold front (the one entering the Washington area) to asborb the 'remnants of Matt'. This depression in the height field, is indicated to become quite strong by some of the well know models after interacting with the trough supporting Nicole. The season is still rambling on, when will this end.

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Keith234
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Keith234]
      #33871 - Sun Oct 10 2004 08:51 PM

Just another update, the models are picking up on some explosive deepening that Nicole (aka the Perfect Storms) will do as it does all of it's trasitioning. Let me explain, the feature wants to become warm-core because of frictional and compressional heating, the feature then cannot sustain itself and the upper cold core system destroys the low level warm core feature and makes the transition to extra-tropical. Then the cold-core system builds around the warm-core center because the energy has no where to go and the storm can "bomb." An example would be Hurricane Grace, I'm currently doing some research on it, I'll post some of the links.

Here's a good page:
http://www.intellicast.com/DrDewpoint/Library/1122/

Here's another good page:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s451.htm

Edited by Keith234 (Sun Oct 10 2004 09:05 PM)


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recmod
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More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season [Re: Keith234]
      #33872 - Sun Oct 10 2004 09:17 PM

Here's a couple more records that this year's hurricane season can add to its tally:

1) Matthew making landfall on the Louisiana coast brings the USA total to 9 landfalling systems this year. 1985 and 2002 each had 8 systems make landfall.

2) Charley, Ivan and Jeanne were all major hurricane (cat 3 and above) landfalls in the USA. That is also a record. Going back to 1888, 6 previous years each had two major hurricane landfalls, but no year has ever had 3 strike the USA in the same season.

--Lou


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Keith234
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Re: More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season [Re: recmod]
      #33873 - Sun Oct 10 2004 09:25 PM

I got a feeling Nicole is going to break some records too, we'll see. Already starting to see some clouds associated with it or the entity ahead of it, they are stratus, realtively low and quite dark, also some NW wind of about 15 mph. Nothing amazing, but something smells and looks fishy.

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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Keith234
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33874 - Sun Oct 10 2004 09:40 PM

"Note that Bermuda is also under a Gale Warning. At 5PM NHC estimates central pressure at 1002mb. At 5PM, Bermuda reports central pressure at 1001mb (hmmm)."

That was the same thing I was thinking. The tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles out from the center, that's huge. Also Bermuda is on the east side of the storm and may not be experincing the full brunt of the storm as they are close to the center and the center doesn't get the highest winds. Is the NHC trying to hide something from us?

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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ShanaTX
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Keith234]
      #33876 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:02 PM

Quote:

Is the NHC trying to hide something from us?




OK call me a confused newbie but what do you think they are hiding?

Is Nicole a hurricane? Cause I'm just plain

'shana


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Keith234]
      #33877 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:00 PM

NHC has corrected the central pressure to 1000mb in their text bulletins. I think that it was posted in error on the NHC website (or it was an oversite). It does raise an interesting question though regarding classifications of storms versus watches and warnings for them. Gale and Storm Warnings are associated with extratropical systems. Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings are associated with tropical cyclones. With Nicole, you have both a Gale Warning (extratropical) and a Tropical Storm Watch (tropical) issued for Bermuda. Since sustained Tropical Storm force winds have already been reported on Bermuda, the value of the TS Watch mystifies me. I doubt that the folks on Bermuda really care if you define their current winds as extratropical or tropical - I don't think that the precautions they take are any different. Since we now name subtropical cyclones, I would suggest that, in order to avoid public confusion, the tropical set of advisories/warnings should be applied for subtropical systems. With understanding for the meteorological differences, should Bermuda now be under a Tropical Storm Watch or a Subtropical Storm Warning? I'll opt for the latter.
Cheers,
ED


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ShanaTX
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Re: More Records For 2004 Hurricane Season [Re: recmod]
      #33878 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:06 PM

What about the whole 'rements of Ivan' situation? An asterisk in the footnotes of hurricane history?

Ivan tracks I've seen make it look like Ivan split up in the GOM ... not that he did a loop de loop, split up in the Atlantic and came back across FL, GOM and TX as remnants of the hurricane formerly known as Ivan...

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Terra
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33879 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:06 PM

Quote:

Since we now name subtropical cyclones, I would suggest that, in order to avoid public confusion, the tropical set of advisories/warnings should be applied for subtropical systems.




You may move this to where the original question was asked I don't know how to do so with the quote), but this comment is what I was getting at. "Since now we name subtropical cyclones".... when did we start naming these? This could be why I have never noticed it before.

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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Keith234
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33880 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:19 PM

To tell you the turth, I feel that should just put out one warning, don't have an expiration time and just make one warning. A good example of this would be when the first frost was coming, our area was under a Frost Watch, and then they put out a Freeze warning. They said they put out the warning for agricultral purposes, in case they don't know Nassu county and Suffolk County have no almost zero farms, we don't live in the corn belt...Don't get me wrong I look up to the NHC and all those other forecasted agenices but when make warnings for a increase of 3 mph in wind and a temp drop of about 3 degrees it annoys me. It seems that I have got horribly off the topic, you can move this post if you want.

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Subtropical Systems [Re: Terra]
      #33881 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:26 PM

Actually, Subtropical systems were defined quite some time ago. For starters, here is a useful link:

UNISYS Storm Archive

Check out 1969 and 1972 (and sporadic years after that).
Cheers,
ED


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Keith234
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33882 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:36 PM

No Nicole isn't a hurricane, but she is a sub-tropical storm. The difference is in the way the storm carries itself, but for all intensive purposes it is just as dangerous as an hurricane. Sub-tropical storms produce dangerous sea's, due to the less organization of the wind field and probably because the winds are stronger far away from the center, take this quote "Confused winds and following sea's." The Halloween storm of 1991 (aka the Perfect Storm) produced 100 ft rouge wave as indicated by a buoy reading, not sure where though...

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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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Matt033
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Keith234]
      #33883 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:46 PM

Maybe in 20 years from now. The system that hit Hati, this May "could" be tropical storm 1# on that map.

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ShanaTX
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Re: Subtropical Storm Nicole Develops Near Bermuda [Re: Keith234]
      #33884 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:46 PM

Thank you. I will figure it all out eventually with lots of help from y'all.

100 foot waves? :eek:

I thought the 10 foot waves we had on our cruise a few years back were exciting enough thankyouverymuch!

'shana


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danielwAdministrator
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Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33885 - Mon Oct 11 2004 02:26 AM

11pm Advisory now has Nicole classified as a Tropical Storm.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Interesting Read [Re: danielw]
      #33886 - Mon Oct 11 2004 02:39 AM

Talk about a central florida bullseye - wow.. graphic showing all Cat 3 storms that landed in Florida and their track across the state over the last 100+ years..

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-asecpath101004,1,2101781.graphic?coll=orl-home-headlines

(be sure to copy the whole URL - the link is broke above because of the comma -- have to subscribe but it is free)

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Mon Oct 11 2004 02:39 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm [Re: danielw]
      #33887 - Mon Oct 11 2004 02:48 AM

Excerpts from the 11pm Discussion.
WTNT45 KNHC 110239
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004
* WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... NICOLE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....

And the same Advisory 9 minutes later.
WTNT45 KNHC 110248
TCDAT5
SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004

*WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...NICOLE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....

Translation-Nicole is still a SubTropical Storm.


Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 11 2004 03:04 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm [Re: danielw]
      #33888 - Mon Oct 11 2004 02:55 AM

The NHC made an error on all of the advisories - Nicole is still a subtropical storm (notice the comments in the Discussion).
The 11pm bulletins are being reissued.
ED


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