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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Idalia) , Major: 271 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 271 (Idalia) Major: 271 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Nicole reclassified to Tropical Storm [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33889 - Mon Oct 11 2004 03:05 AM

Another record was (at least the last 40 or 50 years) was the 3 successive Gulf seasons with 5 or more named storms - Charley, Frances, Ivan, Ivan II, Gaston, Matthew. I think Joe B. has hit it with the water temperature profiles vs. close in landfalling seasons. Clearly warmer water off the Mid Atlantic Coast and cooler water off the SA coast makes a world of difference.

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Nicole thoughts [Re: danielw]
      #33890 - Mon Oct 11 2004 03:20 AM

Note the last paragraph of the 11pm discussion & the statement about potential future development. This is what is called warm-core seclusion development, where an extratropical system acquires a warm-core by some means -- usually as the lower-level core becomes isolated (or, as in the title, secluded) from the outer, colder environment -- and usually results in explosive development.

The GFDL model in the cyclone phase space captures the storm very well currently and hints at this development, bringing the storm to a pressure below 960mb at it approaches Canada in a few days. For now, however, it shows a relatively weak, relatively shallow warm core -- i.e. weak warm core at low levels, cold(er) core at upper levels -- and this is a favorable scenario for such development as hinted by the NHC with the right forcing, as is expected down the line.

The global models have been predicting a significant system to move into the eastern U.S. and offshore later this week, providing the aforementioned forcing. Just this system alone -- perhaps the first significant front of the season -- would be noteworthy enough, but things could get really, really interesting off-shore later this week if things play out just right. I don't expect a nor'easter -- too far off-shore, among other things -- but some nice extratropical/quasi-subtropical development isn't out of the question by any means.

With the tropics essentially quiet otherwise, it's one to watch down the line.

Had the chance to drive through Matthew twice, once Friday and once today, going between here and Louisiana (even had the chance to meet another member of the board in person!). Driving in the rain is no fun, but that's about all it was -- a rain event. Parts of Louisiana really needed the rain, however, so it's not all bad -- just not all of it at once would've been better. It hardly had the look of a tropical system much of its life, taking on extratropical/subtropical features from its inception, but it'll go down in the books as the 13th storm of the year.

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Matt033
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Clark]
      #33891 - Mon Oct 11 2004 03:28 AM

Do you think this new system could be namd Otto??? Hurricane Otto....

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Clark
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Matt033]
      #33892 - Mon Oct 11 2004 04:13 AM

Nah, I highly doubt it'll be tropical at all. Just something interesting to watch weather-wise.

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Matt033
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Clark]
      #33893 - Mon Oct 11 2004 07:03 AM

The computer models are showing this getting very strong...The GFDL now shows it at 958 millibars. The Ukmet tropical model shows this getting very strong as a tropical system before it turns extratropical. Also the CMC shows it swinging around to the southwest afterwards. Could this be the second perfect storms? Remember The superstorm of 1993 had a pressure of 953 millibars.

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Domino
Weather Guru


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Large waves from Karl [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33894 - Mon Oct 11 2004 09:02 AM

This *may* be a bit off topic, if so feel free to move it - however here are a couple photos taken from the cruise ship Rotterdam during hurricane Karl. I've also included a video taken from the Queen Mary 2 during an unidentified storm.

Video found here

Most pics found at: this site



Needs moving, but it covers such a wide area of information.

Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 11 2004 10:17 AM)


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recmod
Weather Guru


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Hurricane Season 2004 Website [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33896 - Mon Oct 11 2004 10:59 AM

Good Morning,
If I have posted this in the wrong forum, I apologise. A week or so ago, I posted that I was working on a website containing a pictorial history of the 4 hurricanes that struck Florida this year. I have now completed the task and invite everyone to check it out:
Hurricane Season 2004
Most of the pictures (with the exception of Ivan) were taken by myself as the storms crossed over Central Florida. I have included a media photos section for each storm to show the damages beyond my narrow local view. Since Ivan did not directly affect Central Florida, I had to rely on using online media resources for pictures of that storm.
The purpose in creating the site was for a personal "scrapbook" of Hurricane Season 2004. I just wanted to share with fellow weather enthusiasts who I thought might enjoy the images.

Take care,
--Lou


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Keith234
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Matt033]
      #33898 - Mon Oct 11 2004 02:42 PM

Glad to see other people have the same ideas as me Clark, especially you being an metorologist. Anyway, I wouldn't be comparing the 1993 storm of the century with Nicole, one is a maritime system and the other is an surface-cyclone, two different things. With the trough deepening and the enviorment becoming increasing favorable, I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm in the 970's. The main wind will not be from the system per se but from the pressure gradient between the strong canadian high and Nicole, could easily see a gust up to 80 in Maine, here in Long Island winds are about 25 mph, but then again it's always windy here. It seems almost everywhere on the east coast is being effecting by these tropical cyclones.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Anony
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Season 2004 Website [Re: recmod]
      #33899 - Mon Oct 11 2004 04:07 PM

GREAT JOB!

Thanks for all the hard work that went into your production. It's a 'keeper'.

sc


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Clark
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Keith234]
      #33900 - Mon Oct 11 2004 05:16 PM

There's not a difference between a maritime cyclone and a surface cyclone. Maritime just refers to something over water; it makes no distinction between the type of storm. Surface versus upper level cyclone is the distinction and, in both cases, the "perfect" storm and the possible scenario to unfold here have support at all levels.

The scenario isn't that much unlike the "perfect" storm, but not what it has been hyped up to be in the 10-15 years after the fact. Cold-core system merges with a tropical/subtropical cyclone, acquiring a lower-level warm core while maintaining the cold core aloft and allowing for rapid deepening as somewhat of a hybrid extratropical system. It'd be foolish to say that such a scenario will happen, but it is within the realm of possibility. It just won't ever get the headlines the other one did.

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Keith234
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Clark]
      #33901 - Mon Oct 11 2004 05:26 PM

I agree, unless there is a shipping interest out there who knows. The swells are pretty big today, just was at the beach taking my dog for a walk, windy cold and cloudy. I meant that they were both surface cyclones, I just thought that if something was over water it would have different characteristics then a surface cyclone over land, das all tm HF

das all...Hey, that's a [tm HF]!


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DroopGB31
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Re: Nicole thoughts [Re: Keith234]
      #33903 - Mon Oct 11 2004 07:34 PM

Well today was my first day back in school here in Gulf Breeze, exactly one month ago I was cutting plywood and packing my bags gettin ready to leave. Even now, people who live on P-Cola Beach still arent allowed to go back to their houses. Im not sure why....I'd be ticked if I wasnt allowed to go to my house, specially after a whole month. I talked to a guy who went out there to help clean up and he said on some houses the sand is up to the second story!! Thats 10 feet of sand! WOW Anyways, Ya'll have a good one.

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Keith234
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Overview of Current Weather [Re: Keith234]
      #33904 - Mon Oct 11 2004 07:58 PM

Just to give an update for those around: The models are picking up on this warm-core center inscribed in an cold-core system, they have some type of an eye forming probably not closed but needless to say any storm that develops a eye is a dangerous one. Also the trough harbouring Nicole is entraining the two entities together, that should be interesting; which one asborbs each other. Matt has split into two, one part traveling westward into the South Carolina coast area, the other part is getting pulled away by the backing ULL, which will bring record heat to the California coast and some thunderstorms in places that don't normally get thunderstorms. Anyway, the system off the southeast coast is anticapted to develop a LLC and ride the east coast up as a modest gale, nothing too crazy. A very strong trough is forecasted to be sitting in the eastern mid west by the 14, which might leave me to believe the developing gale might become stronger then excepted, that's in the realm of possibility. The next area of some tropical development should be confined to the SW carribbean but that's next week. That's about it folks for now, more later.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Keith234 (Mon Oct 11 2004 10:31 PM)


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LI Phil
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Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: Keith234]
      #33905 - Mon Oct 11 2004 08:54 PM

Hey, all...

Looks like Matthew and Nicole pumped up the #s, but didn't have much other effect. We now stand at 14/8/6; I predicted 14/8/3...a busted forecast for sure, but if we just end the season now, I will call it even...NOT.

Too many comments I just read thru to respond other than a couple which stood out...Steve...sorry Matt didn't quite give you a fun ride, but in light of what has already happened, let's call it a draw. Lou...great work on the 2004 season! Ed...I'm sorry, I thought for a minute you might have been, well, dissing may be too strong, but...questioning the NHC? Who else, well thanks to co-mods Danny & Coop for keeping the weekend traffic flowing. And everyone else too...

With that being said, don't look for Nicole to pull a "perfect storm," but don't be surprised if she does a "loop-de-loop" and start tracking back north west towards Halifax...they took a straight on CAT I with Juan last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't eventually see similar situations with Nicole...

As far as Matthew; he's not quite done yet, but he's solely a rainmaker . A'ight [another tm HF], das all fo now.

Hope everyone had a great weekend and, at least like me, got Colombus day off!

Cheers,

LI Phil

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 12:35 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


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Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: LI Phil]
      #33906 - Mon Oct 11 2004 08:57 PM

Hello all, I read an interesting article in the Tampa Tribune and wondered your thoughts on the whole deal. (re: hurricane season)

http://news.tbo.com/news/MGBW71A160E.html

Thanks!

Katie


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: LI Phil]
      #33907 - Mon Oct 11 2004 09:10 PM

My numbers are calling for one more storm to put the total at 15/9/6. With that ridge backing out and the trough propogating southward, that tells you to look for something in the Carribbean. I'm pretty sure it won't become a hurricane, probably get sheared by some type of upper-level feature...though I have been proven wrong this season.
Good to see your're back LI phil, I never knew that there was farms on LI...just kidding Did you see the surf?
Hasta Luego

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: Keith234]
      #33908 - Mon Oct 11 2004 09:23 PM

Keith,

Hasta manyana, no doubt.

Actually, with regard to the surf, the High pressure system parked up north, combined with the northerly component that was once matthew, PLUS the pseudo-"Perfect Strom" setting up over the open atlantic have led to (as I'm sure you're aware) a very strong pressure gradient; winds out of the north gusting to at least 45-50mph...there where white caps in Gardiners bay, but the ocean was a pancake...and look for the rare, but not-totally-unknown, "back door cold front". Basically the OPPOSITE of our classical nor'easter, to continue to take shape over the next 24-48...


Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 12:38 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: LI Phil]
      #33909 - Mon Oct 11 2004 10:29 PM

(off-topic post)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 12:40 PM)


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Bloodstar
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New Invest [Re: Keith234]
      #33910 - Mon Oct 11 2004 10:42 PM

if you haven't noticed, they have a new invest at the NRL

-Mark
(Falcons.... lose *cry* 4 - 1)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Re: Back after a nice respite (for me) [Re: Katie]
      #33911 - Mon Oct 11 2004 11:34 PM

Well, I saw that article some place else as well and I personally believe that it is a summary of what the scientists currently believe about weather cycles. But underlying the article is the attempt at putting the word out that the tourist industry should not feel so threatened by Florida's hurricane experience this year. Little do they know that even when a hurricane is coming you can not get the tourists to evacuate. They become fascinated by the storms and although they have a home to go to that is not in danger, they stay to watch the storms. So it is highly unlikely that our tourist seasons of the future will be harmed. They may have to work like the devil to get the hotels back up and running by next year though. This year is probably a wash at some of the beach side condos. But, by and large, most everyone is resilient and will survive this.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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