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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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October Nearing a Close
      #34154 - Fri Oct 29 2004 12:54 PM

After Matthew the activity has really dropped off this month, leaving historically only the Caribbean to watch for the remained of the season. It appears the Florida madness was just in August and September, leaving October to be very slow.

And I am glad for this.

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LI Phil
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Re: October Nearing a Close [Re: MikeC]
      #34157 - Fri Oct 29 2004 02:59 PM

I second that emotion!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
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Re: October Nearing a Close [Re: LI Phil]
      #34158 - Fri Oct 29 2004 05:39 PM

The initial disturbance part of the wave is now reentering the Atlantic with convection breaking out all over. The models are showing an increase in pressures over the eastern pacific which will generate a persistent trof over South America and get some convergence going and may very well produce a storm. The current disturbance is showing some good inflow as well as some outflow but not organized. The front that passed over really made everything “cloudy” as to what was what but it appears to be centered in the mid-to-upper level atmosphere. If this disturbance(s) persist overnight we may very well see a invest, but who knows; the NHC has been very hard to predict lately. I would be of slightest bit concerned that this could possibly be affecting us later, if some vortmax comes over the ridge placed in the west and collaborates with it.

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Lois
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a lot of color down there suddenly [Re: Keith234]
      #34209 - Sun Oct 31 2004 03:52 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

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Keith234
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Re: a lot of color down there suddenly [Re: Lois]
      #34216 - Sun Oct 31 2004 05:45 PM

I'm seeing two more systems form one of the tropical nature and one of the sub-tropical nature. The development off Florida could be a possiblity, nothing now but in the upcoming days a cold front will traverse the area and really retrograte the ridging and create a nice pressure difference. If this goes happen, I will have to personally thank the model makers.
The other storm, which seems to be materlizing at the moment is in the Carribbean. The wave seems to be stuck, and another wave is moving slowly but surely behind it. If the two converge and mid-level shear decreases then we could very well see the last storm of the season. This activity seems like it will be correlated with the MJO which is no entering the Atlantic Basin in the upcoming days.
BTW had way to many trick-or-treaters, over a 100 at least!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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recmodster
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4 Storms Retired This Year? [Re: MikeC]
      #34234 - Mon Nov 01 2004 12:08 AM

It apears that all four hurricanes that struck Florida this year will be retired. Here is an excerpt from the Tampa National Weather Service Website in their 2004 Hurricane Season Summary Report:

Each storm that struck Florida has, or will be, retired. Dollar damages from Charley alone made it the 2nd most costly hurricane in real dollars (Andrew was number 1; Hugo may eventually become number two in adjusted dollars). Dollar damages from Ivan, Frances, and Jeanne will likely place each in the top five or six; the intensity of Ivan and the unfortunate death toll from Jeanne in Haiti automatically qualify those names for retirement.

--Lou

P.S. Sorry I souldn't log in..there is some trouble with the site not retaining my log in command


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cocoa Beach
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Get out and VOTE! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34235 - Mon Nov 01 2004 03:30 PM

FOR the candidate of your choice!!!!

With the election tomorrow, everyone is excited for their candidate, and rightly so. These comments belong in the Everything and Nothing forum.


Edited by LI Phil (Mon Nov 01 2004 04:42 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: a lot of color down there suddenly [Re: Keith234]
      #34275 - Mon Nov 01 2004 08:12 PM

Watching the SE IR loops. Convective cluster in the Yucatan Channel/ Southern GOM is drifting northward and maintaining a slight increase in convective activity, through0015Z.
Southern end of trough currently moving through the ARKLATX, is beginning to build offshore south of Galveston,TX. Interaction between trough and convective cluster 'could' bring some moderate to heavy rain to the MSALFL coast areas. Will check with TPC,HPC and SPC on progs.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellit...le&itype=wv

Much cooler air forecast for the latter part of this week Should bring the '04 season to an abrupt halt. I think everyone will be glad to see it pass.

Edited by danielw (Mon Nov 01 2004 08:25 PM)


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Keith234
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Re: a lot of color down there suddenly [Re: danielw]
      #34306 - Tue Nov 02 2004 06:04 PM

The trof that is digging down in the western atlantic is really creating an un-favorable area for development. It should relax in the upcoming days, and then we could really see some development. There gives me no reason for the enhanced convection coming off the South America coast to not form a tropical system, the models are not to thrilled with the idea of anything developing but they can change. The Gulf Coast might be in for a late suprise...with the placement of the sub-tropical high where it is.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
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cast a vote for no more storms [Re: Keith234]
      #34307 - Tue Nov 02 2004 07:06 PM

we're at that time of year where the chances at further activity are getting very bleak. aside from a september lingerer and a pair of hybrid type systems near the secondary peak, there have been no more named storms (though a convincing argument could be made that there were a couple of other subtropical systems later in october) in the last month.
the backing with ridging-type pattern needed to trip a west caribbean system hasn't made a convincing appearance.. which isn't to say that it still can't happen, but the chances of a purely tropical system in the atlantic basin are getting close to nil now. a good blocking pattern in the north atlantic could drop one of those deep layer systems down in between bermuda and the azores and give us one more to follow, but it's looking like the landfall threat for the u.s. is all but gone now. otto may still show up, but don't expect to meet him personally.
it's time to start thinking 2005.. check the expected indices and look at some analogs to start getting your ideas for next year.. late in the month i'll post a forum thread for early predictions. most everybody did better than me with their seasonal forecast.. i'll be looking to peg '05.
take it easy, y'all.
HF 2356z02november

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Nov 02 2004 07:07 PM)


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LI Phil
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Visit the E&N Forum... [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34309 - Tue Nov 02 2004 07:34 PM

...if you have any thoughts regarding tonight's election results.

One vote we'll probably all unanimously cast is a vote for no more storms!

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...we don't get fooled again." GWB

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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javlin
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Re: BOC ? [Re: Keith234]
      #34325 - Wed Nov 03 2004 11:49 AM

Looks like a litttle cluster being left behind by the front maybe.See if it continues to hang out for awhile.

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James88
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Re: BOC ? [Re: javlin]
      #34326 - Wed Nov 03 2004 03:12 PM

Well, something certainly seems to be lingering there. Convection has diminished somewhat, though. It is over reasonably warm water, but dry air is not far away. To be completely honest, I wouldn't expect much from those thunderstorms, but hey - i might be wrong.

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Ricreig
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Re: a lot of color down there suddenly [Re: danielw]
      #34331 - Thu Nov 04 2004 05:04 PM

Quote:


Much cooler air forecast for the latter part of this week Should bring the '04 season to an abrupt halt. I think everyone will be glad to see it pass.


I think (thankfully) that it already has.

BTW, you nut, thanks for tracking down this old fuddy-duddy and ensuring I am still alive. I, like many others in the Orlando, Florida area, was pretty burnt out on hurricane and other tropical weather, and when the season suddenly shut down, it was so blessedly quiet that I took the opportunity to chill-out from weather related activities and heal some internal emotional wounds induced by this hell of a season just past. When one evacuates their home 4 times in one season, in just a tad over a month, and each time, not knowing if there will be anything left to come back to, it kinda gets to you in the head a bit. Couple that with the fact that I am teaching a couple of new (to me) courses at High-Tech, I just divorced myself from everything not immediately concerned with restoring some sense of normalcy.

Your call to my boss in your quest to locate me and check on my well-being, reminded me that I made a lot of friends here in this forum, not only in the past, but especially this year. You and I, having 'met' during/after Camille were reaquainted. I was wrong to simply abandon this forum and my friends here even though at the time, I became totally immersed in 'reestablishing normalcy'. Normalcy, for me, jincludes contact with friends, both here in this forum and in person where possible.

So Danny, forgive me for causing you concern, thank you for caring and to the rest of you don't forget your obligations to your friends as I did. Friends are the reason we exist when it comes down to it. Otherwise, we are just other creatures inhabiting this spaceship, Earth. It is our friends that make it a life.

Keep in touch
Richard

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Thu Nov 04 2004 05:08 PM)


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LI Phil
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CFHC family...Danny rules! [Re: Ricreig]
      #34332 - Thu Nov 04 2004 05:19 PM

I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel on the season just yet...there's a reason it extends to November 30. I sure HOPE it's done (then I nail my TS/H numbers!).

Richard, great post! I think that's the way a lot of us feel.

Danny & I had been exchanging a bunch of PMs recently, and his concern for your well being was mentioned in many of them. He even sent me a special PM to let me know he had tracked you down and that you were OK.

Danny's a great guy! He also was a great help to Coop when Coop lost a good buddy in a helicopter crash a couple of weeks ago.

And he almost single-handedly acted as moderator (before he even WAS a moderator) and helped me out immensely during the major canes...he was your overnight god! He also helped me keep whatever little sanity I have left!

Keep in touch!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
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Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34334 - Thu Nov 04 2004 06:00 PM

Quote:

I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel on the season just yet...there's a reason it extends to November 30. I sure HOPE it's done (then I nail my TS/H numbers!).

Richard, great post! I think that's the way a lot of us feel.

Danny & I had been exchanging a bunch of PMs recently, and his concern for your well being was mentioned in many of them. He even sent me a special PM to let me know he had tracked you down and that you were OK.

Danny's a great guy! He also was a great help to Coop when Coop lost a good buddy in a helicopter crash a couple of weeks ago.

And he almost single-handedly acted as moderator (before he even WAS a moderator) and helped me out immensely during the major canes...he was your overnight god! He also helped me keep whatever little sanity I have left!

Keep in touch!


I was 'ready' to throw in the towel after Charley , but I know what you mean. Yes, there is a reason the season goes well into November as it does and statistically, you can argue the case and win, but I think this was an unusual season, shattering the statistics and setting records, so why shouldn't we graciously accept that this season might just well be over despite the statistical chances suggesting it might not be. I'll not look a gift horse in the mouth. The weather patterns in place don't suggest much of a chance remains that things will fire up again this season...they could, but I am not expecting anything at this point. Could it happen? Yes, but will it? Probably not given the current wx patterns.

As to Danny: Yes, he is an asset both to this forum and to those he chooses to let into his sphere i\of friendship. I have found him to be a very genuine and warm human being and a credit to himself and his associates. I well know the job of being a defacto/surrigate moderator. A couple of times during the times you got much deserved rest, and before Danny received his calling, you may remember that I spent several long nights here trying desperately to say the right things to often very worried, scared even, visitors to, and members of this forum. Unlike you and Danny though, I had to evacuate before the storms, and even if I had wanted to, I couldn't have done the job you guys do and did. This board is probably the best of all of the similar boards, and it is so because of peoplle like you and Danny and the others that do so much. But, in the long run, what really makes it stand out is its members, their skill and knowledge is combined in a truly remarkable way and produces something that is valuable way above the sum of its parts. Danny is certainly one of the parts I consider an asset. I think that every one he touches, benefits.

You Phil, sane or not, are another of the parts that made a difference to hundreds, maybe even more, of people in what proved to be very trying times this season. By good moderation, you enabled, encouraged and helped provide good and timely information and advice to a lot of people that really needed it. It wasn't a luxury for many of us, to have this board, it was a necessity and a needed resource. This board provided good information and much needed advice that probably saved more lives than you will ever know about because of the good information and advice enabling good decisions when those decisions *Had* to be good ones or life or limb would be in peril.

You, Danny, and many others here in this forum are a family of sorts, and that has a value too great to even comprehend. I am privileged to be in some small way, a part of this family of wise men and women.

Thank YOU, Danny and all of the others here in my surrigate family. Thanks for being here, for your knowledge, forecasts, compassion and most important: Your caring friendship.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!

Edited by Ricreig (Thu Nov 04 2004 06:03 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34335 - Thu Nov 04 2004 06:03 PM

Richard,

Thank you for the kind words. And, yes, I do well remember your overnight moderation and thank you for it! You were a great help!

Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: CFHC family...Danny rules! [Re: LI Phil]
      #34342 - Fri Nov 05 2004 08:06 AM

ick. Look at the CMC and UKMET! Personally don't think this storm would push any farther west than the Bahamas. Only danger is if the high is strong and hangs on longer OR if the low develops further west than progged. You would think that the westerlies would beat on it (even a hurricane as the Canadien shows) so it would get sheared. But we'll see! Cheers!!

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LI Phil
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Some thoughts... [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #34343 - Fri Nov 05 2004 02:47 PM

from JB:

The monster high that develops Wednesday night and Thursday off the East Coast has a strong east flow underneath it, and a hybrid tropical system should evolve by Thursday morning near 27.5 north and 70 west underneath it.

...the energy coming in digs and tries to pick up the offshore storm sending a major gale center with possible snow on its western side over the Appalachians and a nasty nor'easter on the coast late next week with wind and rain. The Canadian is, by far, the most ambitious with this right now. At the very least, a beach erosion and tidal flooding situation is setting up for the south Atlantic coast. At the worst, a major storm rides northward with complications galore.

It seems like a deja Jeanne here with the GFS as far as position goes. Remember the consistent eastward bias with Jeanne, where a piece would be left behind, but it kept jumping the storm out because it is weak on the feedback of heat from the Tropics. I think we have the same thing here. So while energy will escape, I like the overwhelming model consensus from other sources, based on the pattern I am describing, of the true final development back closer to 70 west.

I want no part of the potential nor'easter...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed in Va
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Re: Some thoughts... [Re: LI Phil]
      #34345 - Fri Nov 05 2004 04:19 PM

Anyone make anything of the convection off the coast of Central America?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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