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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Spike]
      #34450 - Sat Nov 13 2004 06:03 PM

I don't know about next year, yet...haven't looked at my info. Way to early anyway, usually release my forecasts in Jan. Feb time period. But apparently this season was "held back" by the el nino, so next year could be worse. Whatever may happen, the trend should not have hurricanes landfalling on Florida as much as this year, but more northerly around the OB area...look at unysis's records the pattern is clearly there.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Spike
Storm Tracker


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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Keith234]
      #34451 - Sat Nov 13 2004 06:15 PM

This season was wild! Just thinking of next season being worse is crazy. Yet exciting because i like storms.

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LI Phil
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Spike]
      #34452 - Sat Nov 13 2004 07:39 PM

Why are there still 2 Invests up? Season is toast, thankfully. Spike, I can almost GUARANTEE you won't see another season like this one in the near future. That's not to say it CAN'T happen, just that the odds are against it.

With all this global warming I'm freezing to death up here...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Spike
Storm Tracker


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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #34454 - Sun Nov 14 2004 12:06 PM

By next season were still going to be seeing some of the dammage from this season lol. I would hope we dont have another season like this one. And yea the odds are way against it i bet all the floridians are thankfull for that too. That damn weather bug would all beep because of flooding so i got rid of it lol. Its like 72 and im freezing here! I want it to be summer again Soon enough....

--------------------
Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Ice Age [Re: LI Phil]
      #34475 - Tue Nov 16 2004 09:11 PM

Off topic dialogue was moved to the 'Other Weather Events' Forum.

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HanKFranK
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gaston redesignated [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34477 - Wed Nov 17 2004 06:49 PM

for those of y'all who thought gaston had the structure of a minimal hurricane, NHC's post-analysis report is out and it agrees. the late recon was cancelled, but information from wilmington and charleston radars indicates that winds were at hurricane strength as the storm made landfall. also interesting is the best track data, which has the minimum pressure adjusted down a few mb from the operational numbers given back on august 29th. also, hermine's post-analysis came out a few days ago, and included a track as a depression two days prior to it's operational track.
so, that makes nine hurricanes on the year. four tropical and one subtropical storm. and a depression (that had t.s. level D-numbers a few days before its brief operational classification). six of the hurricanes and two of the tropical storms hit the united states.. a historic season to say the least.
HF 2247z17november


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LI Phil
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Re: gaston redesignated [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34478 - Wed Nov 17 2004 07:29 PM

Yep...saw that. So we're at 14/9/6...screwing up my numbers again.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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season's end [Re: LI Phil]
      #34479 - Thu Nov 18 2004 05:10 PM

Just remember that we had two december storms last year

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52255225
Weather Guru


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Re: season's end [Re: Rabbit]
      #34480 - Thu Nov 18 2004 10:50 PM

I wonder if next summer will be like 04? It will be interesting to see whats in store. Im ready for some change of season! Thats the only downfall to living in Florida is the holidays. Not much change until january. The last few years ive been in shorts on Christmas Day. I guess some folks would say im lucky! but it just doesnt seem right to me even though ive lived here all of my life!

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Ricreig
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Re: season's end [Re: Rabbit]
      #34481 - Fri Nov 19 2004 03:29 PM

Quote:

Just remember that we had two december storms last year


True, but that takes care of last year, and the extra one takes care of *this* year, so we don't need one

Maybe next year. We need to let this season die before it kills anyone else. This year was a bad one...what, over 3000 people killed, how many billion in damages in Florida alone, not to mention additional billions in the SouthEast...hell, almost the Eastern third of the US if you count the remnants of the major storms and even more if you count the home grown storms that cruised up and through the Eastern seaboard, all the way to 'yankee' land and points north.

Nope, Even *next* year is too soon!

Rabbit, I know you're like most of us, it is fun to track storms, and I hope next year has 26 named storms....but the tracking should be who can guess the lat/long of the storms and at what time....but NO LANDFALLING ANYWHERE, or you lose, even if you guess/forecast right.

TTYL

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: season's end [Re: Ricreig]
      #34482 - Fri Nov 19 2004 10:12 PM

Go get 'em Ric! While I managed to dodge the spray of bullets this year, I know a lot of you weren't as lucky. I hope that FEMA and your adjusters have gotten your place of residence repaired.
While Rabbit and others were excellent with their predictions and prognostications. I think we would be better off if they stuck to Football predictions and the like. Here's to the "Season from Hell", may we never see another like it.


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Ricreig
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Re: season's end [Re: danielw]
      #34483 - Sat Nov 20 2004 10:08 AM

Quote:

Go get 'em Ric! While I managed to dodge the spray of bullets this year, I know a lot of you weren't as lucky. I hope that FEMA and your adjusters have gotten your place of residence repaired.



One does not economically win with insurance of mobile homes, especially older ones like I own. When the policy payments and deductables equal or exceed the worth of the tin box, you don't play the insurance game. I actually come out ahead by paying into a savings account and self insuring out of that fund. Mobile homes often have a decade or two before being 'too old' or being decimated by storm, and the monthly premium saved is often enough to pay for a new one when the time comes. As to FEMA, because I have a job that pays more than minimum wage, I make too much money, am of the wrong sex, my children are grown, am single and while racial prejudice is illegal, I get the impression my 'suntan' is insufficient. No, I am far from racist, 90% of my students are black or hispanic or asian, and almost all of my students eventually get over *their* prejudice against this old (ancient) white, sourthern-born, male, geek instructor and become vocal and supportive of me to their brothers and sisters new to my classroom and often keep in touch via E-Mail even after graduation. ....But, I can't say that our governmental agencies share that enlightened attitude. Thus, I bear the full cost of the needed repairs. Actually, that suits me fine as then I don't owe any favors or debts to them and they can't hold anything over my head to induce me to do their bidding. They can't take away or withhold what they aren't providing in the first place.
Quote:

While Rabbit and others were excellent with their predictions and prognostications. I think we would be better off if they stuck to Football predictions and the like. Here's to the "Season from Hell", may we never see another like it.


Rabbit and others like him exhibit the sins that many of us share, too many hormones, testosterone mostly, that makes too many of us want to exhibit 'bravery' by confronting the worst nature has to offer head on. When withstood, they can say 'it was fun!, let's do it again!'. Often forgotten is the fact they were standing there in their urine dampened underware when they said that. Too many of us seem to forget that death is permanent and even a small storm has the potential to kill. I hold no ill will against those that wishcast, but I pray their education comes before the storm they wish for.

Daniel, in your chosen field of work, you know the down side, the bad, that weather can deal out. You, like myself and others here in this forum, have gone through Camille, and her bastard children. We know the misery of months without power, fresh water and a cool drink. If we could harness the 'Rabbits' and their ability to forecast, often accurately, where these storms will go, we could avoid some of the loss of life and property damage. You and I though, have an obligation too....to try and educate them about the 'facts of life' with regard to these storms. Then, you, (I'm too old now) go out and pick up the pieces, dig out the victims and those who were both foolish and unlucky enough to get what they wishcasted for.

I am glad that this season is apparantly over, that nothing looms. I do miss the activity here in this forum though, it gave me new opportunities to make friends and learn, and yes, to occasionally even to help educate those in need and to help calm the paniced and hopefully guiding them to an informed decision rather than a paniced reaction to a bad situation. I do miss that.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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LI Phil
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Re: season's end [Re: Ricreig]
      #34484 - Sat Nov 20 2004 12:39 PM

>>> Here's to the "Season from Hell", may we never see another like it.

Daniel-san, you need to put [tm LI Phil] around that quote!

>>> Rabbit and others like him exhibit the sins that many of us share, too many hormones, testosterone mostly, that makes too many of us want to exhibit 'bravery' by confronting the worst nature has to offer head on. When withstood, they can say 'it was fun!, let's do it again!'. Often forgotten is the fact they were standing there in their urine dampened underware when they said that.

That just may be THE best quote of the 2004 season...

>>> If we could harness the 'Rabbits'... to try and educate them about the 'facts of life' with regard to these storms.

I move we vote him off the island...


>>> because I have a job that pays more than minimum wage, I make too much money, am of the wrong sex, my children are grown, am single and while racial prejudice is illegal, I get the impression my 'suntan' is insufficient.

Take out the kids part, and that statement applies to moi aussi.

The season is not over...nothing's over until we say it's over. Was it over when the german's bombed pearl harbor? No. C'mon, who's with me...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: season's end [Re: LI Phil]
      #34487 - Sat Nov 20 2004 02:52 PM

The season is over, and even if we did get some development the NHC most likely wouldn't classify it unless it was a significant feature.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Re: season's end [Re: Keith234]
      #34488 - Sat Nov 20 2004 03:27 PM

Quote:

The season is over, and even if we did get some development the NHC most likely wouldn't classify it unless it was a significant feature.



You don't recognize classic Belushi when you see it?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Bloodstar
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Re: Winding Down - Almost [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34504 - Tue Nov 23 2004 05:25 PM

About the only opportunity left for any development would be a stationary low pressure in the middle of the atlantic (See Olga from 2001) That develops into a relatively cool, warm core system. It's rare, but it can happen, even into December (Lily 1985)

And the odds of that are... low. But just food to think about. (as another note, systems like that tend to track southwest. Odd, but little is normal with systems like those...)

-Mark (Falcons 8 - 2 - haven't said that in a while!)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Re: Winding Down - Almost [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34505 - Tue Nov 23 2004 06:35 PM

Olga? Those storms have come, and now their time is over. Not to metion it is almost getting physically impossible, the water temperatures are losing there touch, which is not to be confused with they are not warm enough to support a system. Also, if a storm were to form, it would get caught up in a trof and ride it's way out of there not to Florida, times have changed and so has the pattern. Not busting on you, just don't agree...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Winding Down - Almost [Re: Keith234]
      #34506 - Thu Nov 25 2004 08:33 AM

Happy thanksgiving all, seasons almost officially over, and I for one am glad.

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LI Phil
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Re: Winding Down - Almost [Re: MikeC]
      #34507 - Thu Nov 25 2004 11:56 AM



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ricreig
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Re: Winding Down - Almost [Re: MikeC]
      #34508 - Thu Nov 25 2004 07:18 PM

Quote:

Happy thanksgiving all, seasons almost officially over, and I for one am glad.


You do not stand alone in that feeling. On the other hand, despite the (tm) Season from Hell, you should feel good that you and the others that operate, maintain and moderate this board have done a needed job, done it well and probably saved both property and lives because you were here. You should feel good about that aspect of this past season, and I, for one on this Thanksgiving Day, do give thanks you all were here.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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