Anonymous
Unregistered
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Colleen and all, thanks for bringing my sanity back, thought I was seeing things before with the vis pix, but I see convection beginning on the west side as shear relaxed for now. Yes Isidore is a HE. IZZY or IZSHE. Like Pat on saturday nite live "It's PAT" no offense to anyone:>). This will get its act together. I believe as a major cane. Cheers. Steve H. 
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Well that system in the central atlantic now will be classified but will be all the way a fish system.By the way that wave off africa looks good but the hostil conditions await it ahead.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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12Z now has it 100+ miles due west of Key West @ 105 knots. So this is a shift to the west a bit. Now does a trough move it NNE/NE/N/ miss the trough and NW?????? Think the trough will catch it due to the projected latitude. But in the GOM you never know. There I go with the Florida hurricane repellent. Cheers!! Steve H. 
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Well, what I thought would happen yesterday has now happened. TD 10 is back. I just looked at an image and the storm is now starting to get that wrapped appearene, this despite the fact the LLC still isn't all that well defined. Probably a TS tonight, but maybe as early as 5.
The big question is, of course, will this effect Florida. The current track looks to be right on target through 72. This thing should take a North turn after 72 hours, then intensifying rapidly. The trough comming down should be sharp, at least. This should turn the system NE towards the west coast of Florida. Given the super-warm GOMEX waters and favorable shear env. in the GOMEX, I'm tempted to think at least a category two coming towards Florida. Could be as high as a category 4. I don't mean to be a wishcaster or an alarmist, but the way I see things coming together now, it looks like Florida will more than likely be in some deep #!@$ by this weekend. Also, if it intensifies to a hurricane before 72 hours it could go more northerly sooner than we think now. Watch it carefully over the next few days. What also bothers me is that it will probably go through the Yucatan Channel...storms love to bomb over that area of water.
If this storm turns northward after 72 hours, and it likely will, my family and I will begin to take some basic precautions. My dad went through Donna when he was 8 and he said it was pure chaos after the storm had passed...he takes GOMEX storms far more seriously than EC storms.
Kevin
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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TS Isidore? well Recon Vortex message shows estimated surface winds (Line D) at 40 knots, making this system a 45 mph Tropical Storm. But will upgrade it at 5? who knows! Where will it go? who knows! and how strong will it be? who knows!
However, i would guess at it skirting to the West of the Caymans as a strong TS or minimal C1 Hurricane. Then on towards the western tip of Cuba, but i think we may see it pass nearer to the Yucatan than Cuba, probably as a good C2 or maybe a C3 Hurricane. Once in the Gulf i think it may well strengthen to become this seasons 'The One', probably landfalling somewhere near Hanna last week, possibly a little to the east. Perhaps it will go like Opal, crank up, then weaken before moving onshore. But hey, thats a long way off!!
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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brew
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Well we were planing on fishing out of Crystal River on Sunday so there is my guess at landfall. Anyone know a good lawyer who specializes in Murphy's Law?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Is it just me or does it seem like the storm may in fact go a little further west then what is being predicted? I agree with Rich B This may try an do an Opal on us here. If thats so then I will get my first hurricane here in Pensacola Beach. I'll be watching it though. Very exciting week or so i hope it last. haha
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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remember with Opal it was going west. then the next morning it was headed toward p.c./ ft.walton. and what was a cat 1 went to a cat 3. the missed the boat on that one. there was a big mess here. thats why if it has a chance you need to prepare for it. while it may not be nice to fool mother nature she sure likes to fool us.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Just a side note:
the system that was once Hanna and moved off the NC / VA coast now has a well defined circulation with it. However, most activity is away from the centre.
Rich B
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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getting stronger t.s, soon then hurricane and will be a major one. trof will pull it ne at sw fla..
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Mike
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 40
Loc: Port St. John, Fla
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Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2002
Satellite images today indicate that the low pressure area about 700
miles east of Bermuda a small but well-defined low-cloud
circulation...with enough deep convection to qualify as a tropical
cyclone. The system is embedded in an upper-level trough and will
be moving over cooler waters in a day or two. Since the environment
does not look to favorable...no strengthening is forecast. The
cyclone is expected to begin merging with a large low
and associated frontal system by the end of the forecast period.
After meandering over the last 24 hours or so...the cyclone is now
moving slowly northward. It should gradually turn toward the
northeast and accelerate ahead of large deep-layer trough
approaching from the west in a couple of days.
Forecaster pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 33.5n 52.7w 30 kts
12hr VT 18/0600z 35.0n 52.5w 30 kts
24hr VT 18/1800z 37.0n 50.5w 30 kts
36hr VT 19/0600z 39.0n 47.5w 30 kts
48hr VT 19/1800z 42.0n 43.0w 30 kts
72hr VT 20/1800z 47.0n 32.0w 30 kts...extratropical
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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this storm reminds me of Opal but this storm shouldnt move so far west over the yucatan. i think it will move west an up the little opening between cuba an the yucatan an move aliitle farther nw then turn staright north an make landfall somewhere between mobile an the big bend. but thats just how i see it. any more opinions? an as of now anymore guesses?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Still a TD at 5pm today, pressure down to 1006...look for an upgrade at 8 with a special advisory or 11 tonight. Recon found 45mph surface winds, but probably only one report, not enough for TPC to upgrade on. Forecast for movement more ominous for Fl, stay tuned.
IHS,
Bill
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ten is not upgraded as of 5pm, eleven is developed as a 30kt depression. TD 10 central pressure now at 1006mb.. only real change. theyre playing conservative.
discussion on TD 11 says they do not expect intensification.. lot of subsidence up there so maybe right.
thats the story at 5pm.
HF 2054z17september
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Just read the discussion on TD#10 and they of coarse bring it to hurricane strength in 72hrs albeit minimum, but they said this may be too low and may need to be raised and said may not be far off on its possible strength!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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70 kts is not the 'minimum''== 80 mph. 65 kts= 74 mph. 65 kts is the 'mimimum' for a hurricane. Each advisory trends it upwards, and this path shifts it closer to Florida.
Key West up to 15 on the probability scale.
IHS,
Bill
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I meant Minimum Hurricane 74-95mph.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Please note subject to large errors and in this case small ones mean the difference between landfall and a brush with a storm..
hi hurric.. i figured out how to use it...see you are on reading
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'll note five things about the 5:00 PM advisory:
1. System moving west-northwest as expected. This may seem somewhat trivial at this point but will be important to the future track. Seemingly small flucuations now mean big complications in the future.
2. Track shifted further to the right (east). The official forecast now carries it just over Western Cuba. This now puts the southern and central Florida Peninsula at a greater danger of a direct hit.
3. Intensity upped to 70 knots in 72 hours instead of the 60 knots in 72 hours that was previously forecasted. What is even more concerning is that Franklin said that future itensity forecasts may be "rather higher" than the one that is out now.
4. A Gulfstream plane is going to investigate the system tonight, sampling the environment in around the storm. This will be put into the 00Z models...should be a reality check for the models that are forecasting a weak system moving west.
5. The current burst of convection near the center may be the beginning of an intenisifcation phase.
So, that's the story for this advisory. Have a feeling that things are going to get intersting (to say the least) over the next few days. Local media giving this one much more attention than they did last night.
I've also noticed that the storm has taken on more of a comma-like appearance. This is often a sign of a storm beginning to organize and intensify.
I'm becoming more certain of one thing... wherever this storm goes it should make quite a mess.
Kevin
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Ok I'm new here I always read all your post. I wish i knew were the storm will be headed. I think it will move west for awhile then head up into the gulf somewhere an hit between Mobile an The Big Bend but i'm young an that is just my opinion.
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