Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The Atlantic Tropical Basin looks pretty much like it should for this time of year with a few subtle differences from last March. The is rather zonal this year and extends across the entire basin at about 5N. Last year the had more of a west southwesterly dip to it and nudged into the Southern Hemisphere as it approached South America.
ENSO neutral conditions are expected for the entire upcoming season with the Atlantic expected to be slightly warmer than normal from 10N to 30N by August - which would generally favor an active season.
Ridging persists through the entire Caribbean Sea - again a little different from last year when it was a bit more prone to storm activity. The Caribbean Sea is about the only location in the basin with very little shear thanks to a firm high pressure pattern.
Still a bit too early to nail down any specifics, however, the current pattern would likely forestall any development for about the next three months, i.e., any chance for an early season storm would not be very likely. Even a June storm seems uncertain at the moment - but we'll keep an eye on the basin - just in case something changes.
Cheers,
ED
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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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Great and useful insight Ed! The much needed rest is almost over...maybe. Although a little jumpy, Florida hopefully will be ready for what may come this time...as well as all along the US coast.
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Yep, there sure is one today, south of Panama.
I hear what Ed says, but, I think we may pop an early depression or storm..May/June timeframe, no science, just a gut feeling...
MM
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
Yep, there sure is one today, south of Panama.
I hear what Ed says, but, I think we may pop an early depression or storm..May/June timeframe, no science, just a gut feeling...
MM
I'll tend to side with the esteemed Mr. Dunham, but MM raises an interesting point...remember Ana "popped" in April of aught-three...
Perhaps ED may want to start up the "first storm of the season" thread in the Storm Forum...I was OH SO CLOSE last year (picked 6/15) yet Mr. Dunham held firm with his 7/31 call and we got Alex on 8/1. Then TSFH reigned down fire and brimstone and reminded everyone, but especially Floridians, that we must always be extremely careful what we wish for...
Here's to a season of weak landfallers and strong fishspinners! BTW, I've got a whole new crow cookbook and I'm anxious to try out the recipes!
Cheers,
LI Phil
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Hey Ed, I'm trying to remember if the Eastern Seaboard had such deep troughing as it had this time last year. I really can't remember. Fear here in Florida and points west is that strong ridging will replace the trough in the SW Atlantic this summer. Was last years pattern similar? Still waiting for shingles in Palm Bay.
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Way too early, way to low latitude..interesting nonetheless.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
If you don't look today, you won't see it..ITCZ disturbance.
MM
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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Looks very interesting indeed. What a flare-up of thunderstorms!!
-------------------- Displaced Cajun
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks like for the time being SST's in the Pacific seem to be falling.Also read that with an active season in Australia usually means an active Atlantic the following summer.Thus far it is a little above normal there in th Downunder.You can see how the SST's climded in the vincity where Ingrid was for awhile.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Yea Steve I might be wrong her and maybe Ed could point me in right area for research but that when it snowed here along the coast the GOM was alittle more active.This here we got snow and sleet on Christmas day first itme in fifty years this has happened on Christmas day.Ed any ideas where I can find some perciptation charts for a given area?
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Great to be back at this great forum.I am Cycloneye but I have a new PC and started all over again now with the 11 which is my birthday number date.ED I am ready to begin the discussions about the 2005 season which looks to be another active one.
I have as preliminary numbers 12/7/3
Edited by Cycloneye11 (Mon Mar 21 2005 07:52 PM)
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey Luis
cómo sea yendo?
Good to see you back here...
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Hey Phil great to see you too.Yo estoy bien.Ready for the 2005 season.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't remember seeing it posted yet. So I'll put a quick reminder up here.
Dr Gray is scheduled to release his April forecast fot the 2005 Hurricane Season, on Friday Morning. I'm sure the networks will give some coverage to this. Since he's releasing it at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans.
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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I live close to New Orleans and I will be viewing it!!
-------------------- Displaced Cajun
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Hey guys, I know this isn't the place for this, but anyone here absolutely has to take a look at my movie now available for download in the hurricane history thread. It is a sobering reminder of what we will be dealing with in just a few short months.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=35014&Main=35014#Post35014
Edited by Lysis (Wed Mar 23 2005 01:30 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4622
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Jeff's Documentary can be downloaded this way. (The full file) using a bittorrent client at
http://flhurricane.com/torrent/HurricaneCharleyDocumentaryComplete.wmv.torrent
If you are unfamiliar with it see below, or see Jeff's forum link for parts you can direct download. The instructions here are for the entire movie in one file:
Torrent link fixed as of 3:39PM EDT
You can download a bittorrent client called torrentstorm here
install and run, use File->Import Torrent File, then put the following in below:
http://flhurricane.com/torrent/HurricaneCharleyDocumentaryComplete.wmv.torrent
Then save a location to store the file, when it is done downloading you can launch the video file in media player.
Make sure you click on the file and hit the "play" button for it to start downloading. This will help distribute the load of the file and allow you to help share it for others and keep it from killing the flhurricane server.
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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Although I do not post often, I am a frequent visitor to this site. Great insight and information. Thanks!!!
I think I read on this site or somewhere else, about the correlation between hurricane activity and tornado activity. During the period of Jan-March 2004 there were 45 tornadoes. During the same period Jan-March 2005, there have been 68 reported tornadoes. Oddly enough, 14 of the 68 were in California !! VERY UNUSAL. And the season is just kicking into high gear as we enter the month of April.
I got this data from here
I look forward to reading Dr. Gray’s forecast on Friday, April 1. In his December report, the long range forecast was for 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. I would be interested to see if he moves these numbers at all.
Your thoughts,
Mitch…
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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That's an interesting topic to take a look at -- I haven't heard of that one before.
Tornadoes tend to form in relatively warm environments in the presence of abundant moisture and heating at the surface, with relatively cool mid-levels of the atmosphere. This provides the thermodynamic energy for the formation of the tornadoes; many other dynamical processes serve to initiate convection, form the preceding horizontal vortex, tilt it into the vertical, and lead to tornado formation, notably wind shear.
But, the thermodynamic parameters are the important ones here -- not only as they can lead to tornado/storm formation but are less likely to change on a day-to-day basis as are the dynamical parameters. Thus, a similar regime is likely to hold through, oh, a week or two -- whereas the dynamical parameters are tied to many other transient features (e.g. surface cyclone development, upper-level conditions, and more).
What do we know about hurricanes? We know that they need warm water to form, particularly not just at the surface but also below the surface. This warm water pools as a result of increased heating over a region, but takes take as waters warm/cool much slower than does land (due in part to the specific heat capacity of water vs. land). Of course, there are many other factors -- low vertical wind shear, sufficient low-level spin to result in vortex/convective development, and so on -- but again, these are more dynamical than thermodynamical.
Most tornadoes/convective systems across the southeast U.S. (mainly central Texas & points east) receive their moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, with heating serving to continually warm these waters through time. So, without doing any study, it seems as though early-season tornado activity in the S.E. U.S. could be a good indicator of tropical activity across the western Atlantic -- particularly the Gulf -- at least early in the season. Of course, like in 2004 as opposed to a lot of other years, this may not be terribly well-correlated to hurricane activity in that basin. I don't think that *all* tornadoes are going to be a good indicator of activity, just those in the southeast U.S.; I also think that while tornadoes are a good parameter (and simple to use), observed severe thunderstorms may be a better indicator, since the basic conditions for formation are the same between the two and using the latter does not require as much dynamical response, making it likely more representative of what we are looking for here.
Hope this wasn't above everyone's heads...comments anyone?
-------------------- Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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There may be something there to think about... with the severe Wx we have been faced with thus far and the risk we run this weekend.. lasting possibly up to 48 hours! We should look back in a few months and see what, if any, indicators were there.
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Dr. Gray to up his numbers:
"Unfortunately, the indicators are that the number will have to be increased than from what we released in December. Every indication now is that it will be very active, perhaps as active as in 2004". Way to drop the ball two months out.
His numbers will be released April 1st.
EDIT: Actualy, I was quoting Philip Klotzbach, his assistant, and not Gray himself.
Edited by Lysis (Sat Mar 26 2005 08:00 AM)
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