hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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good banding and it is becoming more organized
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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9N 85W almost directly east of 90E. there is a cyclonic spin
any thoughts or just a eager eye?
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Bobstorm
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it may just be my eyes, but is there something southwest of PR? kinda where all the models are trying to hint at something?
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Cycloneye11
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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That is what was 91L that will dump plenty of rain here more than what has fallen already since may 5 in Puerto Rico.I am concerned about massive flooding as the grounds are oversaturated.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Starting to spin down a little as daylight begins to wane...either way, Luis is going to see a boat load of rain from this system...
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Anyone seen the North America 00 UTC run (5/15/06)... at 100hrs? Not sure what the model is picking up on for friday/saturday 5/20-21 ....near cuba. Must be a 90E?... or something (rain) ..... take a look http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp"_l_loop.shtm MSLP 1000 -500mb
**recommend high speed connection***
from TWD 8:05pm
CARIBBEAN...
1006 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W WITH A
TROF TRAILING SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W....
"IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK OVER CNTRL AMERICA AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS AND HEADS TO THE E/NE."
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue May 17 2005 02:04 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Thanks for the heads up!
Interesting! However, this is last night's run. (00Z 5/16/05). New won't be out for another hour or so.
If you follow the charts through 136 hours, you will notice that it is progged to a 500mb vortice. A very small vortice, that dissipates before entering the Florida Straits.
Also note on the 250mb charts the SW shear at greater than 30kts. Not particularly favorable for formation.
Maybe one of the Mets can give us his interpretation.
Edited by danielw (Tue May 17 2005 01:27 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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yeah i saw the shear..... just trying to figure out how something from EPAC would make it all the way to cuba.....in a bad environment....(shear)
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I can't recall any EPAC disturbance or greater moving into the Caribbean. Atlantic storms can and do move into the E Pacific from time to time. E Pacific storms generally become hazards and or rain producers to the Desert Southwest and California, before moving further eastward.
But there is a first time for everything.
I just checked the model updates and the 84 to 120 hr isn't scheduled to complete it's run until 0428Z or 12:28 AM EDT.
**Note: Jim Cantore at just updated his sat and radar imagery on the Puerto Rico area. System seems to be on the decline. Sun going down and loss of daytime heating.
Still an area to watch as it's been very persistant/ stagnant.
Edited by danielw (Tue May 17 2005 01:55 AM)
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LI Phil
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>>> Sun going down and loss of daytime heating.
hmmm...i think someone said that somewhere...perhaps the last post of the previous page?
anyhoo...it's just a rainmaker, but it could still pose trouble for the islands...
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Dr Gray is already hinting that he will increase his numbers.EVERYTHING points to a very bad season.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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Check out the run
00 5/17
cmc 2005051700
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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forecast you mean?
there were sixteen named storms in 2003, and it wasnt a 'really bad' season because only isabel and claudette hit the us as hurricanes and they were 1/2 range at the time. several big ones, but they did the usual recurve or weaken routines before hitting. we can have sixteen storms again, and if there isn't a or hugo type storm in the mix then.. well, so what. the low number of hits we've had in the active span since 1995 contrasts very well against the historic averages for the number of major hits we'd expect given a certain number of storms.. but looking back to the 19th century the number of hits and the fact that they picked on more of the u.s. coastline, along with some strong hurricanes hitting earlier than we usually would expect nowadays. i dunno, the perspective i have is that 2004 was bad, but all it takes is a slow season with one good solid hit in just the right place and we get a nightmare scenario, or a repeat today of some historic season activity that we haven't seen in decades or even in the last century that could easily eclipse 2004.
i get sort of irritated seeing the news columns today, all the networks poorly masking their chance to scare-monger behind the release of the NOAA forecast. any season could be worse than 2004, with less storms even, if they just hit in the right places or don't spin down on their landfall runs. but then again it would be just like most every year recently, with a hell of a lot of storms and hardly any that come calling. don't anyone follow the media misconstruing the official takes saying that they 'expect that things will be worse than 2004', because we're still months from the core of the season, and its those aug-oct storms that almost always matter most.
worthy mention that is way negative again, and the tropics have responded with strong backing (notice the low level flow in the eastpac is out of the west). if it were jamming all the way to the caribbean we'd have some serious cyclogenesis trying to take place, but the best we can do with the chaotic surface pattern over much of the region is have a bunch of disconnected vorticity along the and rim of the subtropical jet... e.g. a couple of weak gyres in the eastpac and caribbean. models still trying to brew up lows from 60w to 100w, but they keep meandering between runs, and nothing consistent has materialized yet in the numerical models or real world. the jet has lifted enough so that a system could actually organize at low latitudes, but all of the forcing and evacuating seems to be along the jet rim, and at the edges of the ridge (backing in the eastpac and the easterlies in the atlantic are feeding convection near puerto rico and south of the tehuantepec, but not in the sweet spot north of panama). the pattern generating all the disturbed weather continues, though, and given time and pressure something may yet organize out of all this. the eastpac disturbance looks fine enough, but it's at such a latitude and so involved in the that it won't focus energy quickly.. mind only if it breaks loose and starts NE like the global progs seem to suggest. as for the caribbean side, there's still nothing getting busy developing, just a bunch of playing around. i'm sure luis wishes the playing would stop. sorry brother, maybe after the rainy season.
'nuff o that rambling. i should post when i'm at least half awake. do forgive.
HF 0615z17may
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue May 17 2005 05:19 AM)
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Cycloneye11
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Yes HF I would like to see the sun come out here after many days of cloudy and rainy days as troughiness has been stationary but I hope that it gets out of here.Rainfall totals between 3-8 inches haved fallen since 6:00 PM EDT last evening as the orografic effects enhance the precipitation.
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LI Phil
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Here is NOAA's updated 2005 forecast...gee, they really go out on a limb with this one...12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors...how's about putting out some real concrete numbers, like we do? between this and the santorum bill, i'm a tad bummed about how our tax dollars are being spent on weather research...
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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Every year they get better at hurricane tracking and forcasting,the numbers don't lie.Just look at the tech.we have developed over the years.It all comes down to numbers,last year there was 6 major storms,they predicted 4.This year they predict 3-5 major storms,the more major storms the better chance of the u.s. getting hit.The average is 2 major storms.It is a numbers game.Of course you could only get one major storm for the year and if it hit a major u.s. city it would be big news.But again,you have go by the odds,more major storms,better chance of u.s. landfall.To me this is just common sence.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The EPAC system seems to be making the supposed track that the models are predicting.The question remains how intense the system gets and the where it crosses.The system is moving @ 4kts now I think that is slower than the model.I would expect that in the next 24hrs. the system to be upgraded as long as it stays away from the shear to it's N.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/EPAC/90E.INVEST/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
floater on EPAC
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Edited by javlin (Tue May 17 2005 02:29 PM)
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nl
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Loc: nsb,fl
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hey guys! im new too this but i was going too ask does the month of june look good for furthur developement and how bad do u think it will be? my mom is coming down here for a visit on june 19 is it looking good?
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nl
Storm Tracker
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so u think that this could be our first storm?
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B.C.Francis
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I don`t think you have much to worry about.Watch out for your everyday thunderstorms though.......Weatherchef
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