Ryan
Unregistered
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what do you guys think will be this seasons most unlucky place...by un lucky i affected the worst....i think its a carolinas year...let me knwo...Ryann :D
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Ryan, no one can accurately predict where the worst tropical weather will happen with any certainty this year. I think that we on the East coast, those on the Gulf coast and Caribbean are all in the same boat. We all have the same chance. You mentioned the Carolinas, I`m on business right now up in Charleston and they still talk about" Hugo" to this day and down where I live in Brevard County Florida we are still realing from last years devasation. I think that everybody in the three areas that I mentioned should be prepared just in case there " luck" runs out..Weatherchef
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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I think this picture proves it in this thread...
http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=46782
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
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The cyclone phase analyses from the available models all suggest a shallow warm-core with the system, or more or less your typical secluded-type of structure. You don't see it all too often along the east coast of the U.S. -- you see it a lot more south of Greenland -- but on occasion, you can see what we've got out there right now. Nothing tropical or even subtropical about it, just something nice to look at.
Current as of this evening: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/05050818/M4.html; see http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ for future runs. As an aside, the cyclone phase diagrams were developed initially based upon comments made by Jack Beven, who is a big followed of the hybrid storms (for what it's worth), about the thermal structure of tropical vs. cyclones.
SSTs in the region are <20 C (not favorable for tropical/subtropical development) and the system is definitely still frontal in nature; one good look at satellite confirms this; the South Atlantic system last week at least was somewhat separated from its old frontal structure before it was completely overtaken by an onslaught of cold air from the south. An upper-level low wrapped around the North Atlantic system yesterday, enhancing the upper level circulation; the fact that it has sat right along the boundary of the Gulf Stream & the colder waters north of it has enhanced the available surface energy for the system. The acquisition of the low-level warm core either came about as a natural progression of the storm into the seclusion phase (which isn't well understood yet) or out of convective warming near the core of the system. The upper-levels, however, are still cold-core, one of the first indicators that the system isn't nearly tropical.
Polar lows often times can have eye-like features associated with them, and do note that by definition, the wind at the center of a low pressure system should be near zero...so those two features alone do not give you a tropical cyclone.
Wind field: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas86.png. Note the overall expanse of the circulation and the large swath over which the maximum winds cover. This is neither indicative of a tropical (relatively compact wind field, strongest winds confined to a very narrow band near the center & rapidly dropping off outward from there) or subtropical (similar to tropical but with a looser definition, namely slightly larger expanses) cyclone structure. Other adjacent images suggest frontal structures still associated with the system.
In a few words, pretty to look at but nothing compared to what we'll see in a month or two. As an aside, Atlantic SSTs are running 1 deg C (or greater) above normal east of Hispaniola, with SST anomalies of 3 deg C above normal just off of the coast of Africa. The 26 C isothem sits at 15 N at < 40 W and 20 N from 45 W on westward. The coolest locations are off of both shores of Florida, where we have seen a cooler-than-normal spring. These are the shallowest waters, however, and can warm up in a hurry from where they sit now. All of this portends what *may* be an early start to the deep Atlantic tropical season (though, admittedly, a slow start to the near-shore season).
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Good 2005 season to every one. To Reply to Ryan's question about unlucky landfalls:
The weather pattern over Central Florida is eerily consistent with weather systems dropping into Tampa Bay this spring after leaving the Coast of Texas or riding up from Mexico. IF and only IF this pattern continues, the Tampa Bay area is a sitting duck for a Tropical Storm/Hurricane this season which of course puts the Carolina Coast in the way for the leftovers that tend to get over the Gulf stream and Blow up into something monstrous. The momentum of these past few storms with gale force winds and above have given Central Florida a taste of tornados and has retraumatized some who had just managed to get a roof over their heads again. It is not going to be a fun time around here if the pattern does not change soon.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Dear 'grouper:
I'm uncomfortable for our area just because the west Florida coast north of Charolette and south of Cedar Key has not been hit directly by anything significant since 1951-2 (Easy)...tropical storms and glancing blows otherwise...not good odds.
14/8/4
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doug
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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have to say it's the warmest SST's i have seen in years for the month of april and may.....nice warm little eddy coming up off the yucatan to south of mississippi.... could this be a sign that anything forming in GOM in the next month or two might have a better chance than last year?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
have to say it's the warmest SST's i have seen in years for the month of april and may.....nice warm little eddy coming up off the yucatan to south of mississippi.... could this be a sign that anything forming in GOM in the next month or two might have a better chance than last year?
Yes, I noticed that eddy of water too...seems to be in the same exact path that hurricane took.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Well, that is just great, Keith.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue May 10 2005 01:08 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Unregistered
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If you believe in odds,Miami and Ft Lauderdale stand a real good chance at a bad one.I did see a website that puts miami/lauderdale #1.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I believe that we who live on the southern east coast and those who live on the Gulf coast have a higher chance of being impacted by a tropical system than those who live on the northern east coast of the U.S. this year again. But who knows, the odds may favor us down here, but until mother nature rolls the dice, we won`t know who the winners are and who the losers are until the dice stops rolling and the game is over...........Word to the wise, don`t gamble.....Be prepared...Weatherchef
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the SSTs in the gulf are cooler than normal in most places. the warm patch near the mouth of the mississippi probably has something to do with discharge into the gulf.. not sure of that. but in general the gulf isn't running warm at all. right now the tropics of the north atlantic and the east atlantic near the canaries are running warm.. much of the northwest atlantic (esp. the shelf waters) and gulf are running cool. these areas are likely to warm significantly as summer comes on, though. noteworthy fact that the immediate coastal waters on much of the atlantic seaboard (esp. ne-fl to hatteras) have been running cooler than normal in recent summers.
as for miami ft lauderdale being at greater risk.. they are always at higher statistical risk than much of the rest of the u.s. coast.. that's a given. is it likely they will be singled out this year? probably not.
the coastal storm from late last week is completely occluded and is moving SE near bermuda right now. the spotty convection near the core is gone, but it is rotating around the tail of the larger upper trough that it earlier tracked into. as secluded as it has become, convection redeveloping near the center would likely indicate subtropical transition.. not happening right now, but an slim possibility exists (it wasn't supposed to drift as far south as it has).
models that were earlier creating mess in the caribbean and tracking it north/northeastward into the western atlantic still making the same suggestion. has a storm over the weekend/early next week that looks very interesting... behavior looks like a variation of the systems the model has been mumbling about for about a week now. watch the caribbean late this week, it may try to cough something up like it did last year. we came very close to getting a may storm in 2004, this year might end up giving us something similar to watch.
HF 1615z10may
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Greetings:
If any thing grows up down there it will have to be in the NW portion...seems to me too much westerly shear in the southern latitudes...
GOM temps are getting at or near 80 this week near the coast. EDS,
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doug
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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And so the season may begin with a bang afterall.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Not as if anything I have to say bears credence, I would like to physically reinforce the notion that temps are a bit cooler in and around the gulf coast ---and the sharks know it. As told by our boats onboard instruments the waters are only now peaking at about 77 degrees daily. Of course every day it is getting warmer. Just last month it was barely making it over 70. As an effect, the sharks have not moved into the harbor as early as usual. The waters are actually bountiful at this time, as the canes churned up all the mud which somehow leads to an increase in fish population (don't ask me how). I can surly attest the fish are definitely bigger and there are more of them this spring. The 40 inch snook we caught last night is proof of this  .
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue May 10 2005 07:41 PM)
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Hmm..satpics this afternoon make it look like there is a tropical cyclone...over N. GA!
Convection holding on and moving NW from the SW Carib...hmmm
Hybrid maybe developing out by Bermuda...?
and..what is that wave form NE of PR??
Awfully busy for early May.....
MM
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Clark
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The few models I've looked at are consistent in building in a ridge over the western Caribbean from the west late in the period, e.g. 5-7 days. Anything that gets above 20 N would get destroyed by shear, assuming it were tropical in nature; best bet is still on something non-tropical. But, with warm SSTs and a potentially favorable upper-level wind & vertical shear pattern, you never know. Moisture looks to be sufficient and, as HF noted, the models (to varying degrees) want to spin up something out there...so it bears watching. For those who remember last year's Caribbean system that moved over Hispaniola, as HF noted, that's probably a good situation to compare this to.
Nothing out there really bears watching; shear is just way too high over the entire basin right now. The secluded/occluded low near Bermuda lacks convection and is too far removed from the Gulf Stream to be near warm waters. That is the one location in the basin where shear is low, but that's a feature of the vertically-stacked low pressure system there and not favorable upper-level conditions. It should eventually get kicked out towards the NE and merge with another system in a few days...assuming it lasts that long. None of the globals want to do anything with the upper low over the Carolinas right now; most of them drop it slowly south off of the Georgia/Florida coast and then have it picked up by the subtropical jet. See no reason to think otherwise there right now.
It's kind of a weird pattern out there right now in the mid-latitudes. Alaska has been warm, warm, warm lately -- near 70 in the interior and along the southeast coast for 2+ weeks -- and the associated upper-level ridge that far north has kept things from amplifying to a large degree here. This is partially due to the continual rebuilding of a trough in the western U.S., somewhat akin to a blocking scenario and keeping us from changing things up. The low near Bermuda brought some raw weather to the NE, but nothing out of the ordinary; it hasn't moved because nothing else is there to kick it yet. That should change as the Aleutian high weakens slightly and a system rides over it and drops into the east in about 3 days (first surge offshore). The trough in the east is the culprit which could bring the subtropical jet towards the north in the SE US and result in a more favorable regime in the western Caribbean, but not for about another 5 days (the ridge over the east should build as the trough first amplifies offshore; later, the trough should then amplify to the west)...so it will be interesting to see how it all pans out. Needless to say though, seeing as it's mid-May, I still wouldn't get my hopes up, but it's worth watching.
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Clark
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The models are coming into a bit better alignment as to what may happen in the SW Caribbean today. Shear is trying to relax over the region, but it's still pretty high north of 10 N. The models continue to build a ridge over the region in about 2 days from the EPac, partially a response to the subtropical jet moving ever-so-slightly northward and partially a response to a weakening of its southern periphery; this is absolutely critical for us to see anything of interest in the Caribbean this week...at least tropical.
The models have also come into better alignment as to the thermodynamic structure of a system, were it to develop. Both the and the Air Force call for a warm-core structure, the depth of which is still up in the air. This is a gradual trend towards a warm-core structure, meaning if it continues, we could see something forecast to be tropical. SSTs are certainly warm enough up until you cross Cuba, and moisture shouldn't be a problem across the region. The UKMET and also call for some sort of development, but I'd like to see the next (00Z) runs before writing much about them. Our run of the here from last night hinted at a rather good sized cyclone developing; unfortunately, it only goes out to about 4 days because someone (okay, myself) shut off the computer it was running on before it finished. Whoops; we'll get a new run by morning, however. Anyway, it spun up a rather small circulation off of the Honduran coast with a min. pressure of around 992mb (and something slightly stronger in the EPac, too, to kick off their season). We'll see if that lasts.
Needless to say, this could be our first real "threat" of the year. However, anything that develops -- assuming it does -- will either move slowly onshore in Cent. America and weaken or move across Cuba and into the Atlantic as it gets picked up by the jet & a midlatitude trough. Shouldn't be a threat at all to the US mainland. It's a candidate (assuming it starts out tropical) to undergo transition at a pretty low latitude, somewhere between 20-25°N. Max. potential intensity (MPI) maps are in the cat. 3 range, which this storm would never achieve, but it still hints that conditions are favorable for something to potentially develop.
I'd say it's got more of a chance now than it did a day ago, but not necessarily a great chance. Convection has persisted in the area, which is a good thing, and you can (and occasionally do) see TCs develop along the end of old boundaries, which is sort of where this lies right now. QuikSCAT isn't going to be much help, as that is traditionally one of the areas where data are lacking. Needless to say...something to watch for those ready for another season.
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HanKFranK
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the globals right now have an axis of disturbed weather extending ene from honduras to east of bermuda, and are developing low pressure going into the weekend and next week at various places along the axis. if evolution is to take place over the next 3-4 days, it would have to be deep in the caribbean for any system to get past minimal storm intensity--shear gradient to the north will be sharp--if a system were to start away from it the effect would be enhanced outflow for a while, nearby the effect would be strong sw shear and rapid NE movement. the runs at 00Z are favoring a system closer to the islands jetting rapidly ENE.
mentioning the upcoming feature of interest a few days ago panned out fairly well, so i'll roll with it and add that wants to create another system out past 10 days in the western caribbean.. or at least it has the last couple of runs. the system in this later case moves more poleward. of course getting two tropical systems in may is completely outlandish and i'd still hesitate to say either has much chance to develop from this juncture.
HF 0646z12may
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HanKFranK
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the disturbed weather in the western caribbean is getting a more defined look. i wouldn't be surprised if puts an invest up on it within 24 hours, down near panama/nicaragua. if a system is going to evolve down there, it should still take at least 2-3 days to get organized. the fact that it's may 12th notwithstanding.
HF 1850z12may
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