Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Very little change from my Initial Outlook posted on January15th. Easterly waves exiting the west coast of Africa have started a little sooner this year and the cooler SSTs along the southeast coast (and a few areas of the Gulf) suggest that the mid Atlantic ridge will be at least as strong as it was last season. Both of these factors would imply an active Cape Verde season. No significant overall pattern change from the 2004 season. Primary threat areas remain unchanged and include the entire Texas/Louisiana coast, south Florida, and the eastern Carolina coasts...and the eastern Caribbean islands. No change in my analog years, and only a minor adjustment to 12/7/3 in my seasonal forecast.
Now its your turn to provide or adjust your seasonal forecast. If you've already made your forecast on the Main Page, please repeat your numbers on this thread - it makes my job of end-of-season analysis a little easier if all of the forecasts are in the same place.
Here are the groundrules:
1. Only forecasts from registered Users will be tallied.
2. You must make your forecast before June 1st - any adjustments made after May 31st will be ignored.
3. You can provide rationale for your forecast if you wish, but it is not a requirement to do so.
4. Use a 'reply' to this post to make your forecast.
There is also another 'educated guess' activity that we have fun with. Normally we attempt to predict the date of the first 'named' storm, but this year I'm going to change it a little and ask you to guess at the date of the first named 'hurricane' of the season in the Atlantic basin (includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea). The same rules apply as stated above. I've already got a date in mind (got very lucky with this last year - and don't expect to do as well this year), but I'm going to hold off on posting my date for awhile.
Finally, there is an Area of Interest in the SW Caribbean Sea north of Panama. Nocturnal convection has again flared up in this area. Low-level convergence coupled with divergence aloft is centered near 12N 81W at 12Z today - with little movement. SSTs are at 28.5C with light westerly shear that rapidly strengthens to the north of the strong convection. I do not anticipate any significant development of this system.
Good Luck with your forecasts!
Cheers,
ED
Added on 05/23: First hurricane on 07/18 (very low confidence in the date this year).
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 23 2005 06:07 AM)
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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My numbers are 12/7/3 and I haved sticked with them since march and no more changes to them.
First hurricane IMO will form on the 6th of August.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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My forcast 13/7/4.........First hurricane July 28th.......Weatherchef
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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My final 2005 forecast is 14-8-4. The first hurricane will impact on July 15th for no particular reason only that it is a memorable date.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri May 13 2005 01:20 PM)
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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Hi Everyone, I hope you have had a nice peaceful off season. I thought this year I would try my hand at this so.....12/8/4.. and first storm 6/14.
Don't ask my why, just going with my gut and what I have been reading.
Dawn 
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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13/8/4. First named hurricane August 15, 2005. 3 landfalling tropical cyclones for Florida.
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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17/11/5. That's including anything with a subtropical classification.
First hurricane date is July 6th.
HF 2324z13may
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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14/7/4
I also have the date August 15 on my mind.
Based on my "studies" (from you all of course!), believe that it will be an active year and things will be steered toward Florida once again. Kind of waiting for things to heat up and dreading it all at the same time.
That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! 
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When it rains, it pours...
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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13/8/6, July 19th.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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My 2005 Numbers are 17/8/5....first hurricane....july 2nd
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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No real big changes from my previous forecast, except to bump all of the numbers up one, from 13/7/3 to 14/8/4. I believe we'll see a subtropical cyclone influence the total number of storms, while I feel we'll have a good shot at above-normal hurricane activity. Warm SSTs in the central Atlantic coupled with statistical trends over the past few seasons and what should be rapidly warming SSTs in the western Atlantic over the next few weeks provide my primary justification. Shear values are still high across the basin, but moving north with time.
I feel we will see a season that matches historical norms in terms of seasonal distribution -- a couple of early storms, the bulk of activity from 1 August through 15 October, and one or maybe two late season storms (including, perhaps, the aforementioned subtropical cyclone). This is a departure from the past few seasons, where activity has waited until closer to the peak of the season to really get going. I do not feel that this season will wait until 31 July to get started, unlike last year. With an early season storm likely, I am going to go fairly early in terms of the first hurricane date, naming 25 June as my target.
Landfall prediction is a fool's errand, but I get the feeling that this season will feature a good number of long-track Cape Verde storms, inherently increasing the risk to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the Outer Banks. Other than that, however, I am not willing to venture a guess as to other potential targets; there is simply no skill.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Liz
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
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15/7/4
1st named Hurricane - Aug 1, 2005
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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2005 season prediction: 12 / 6 / 3
First named hurricane: August 5
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Sorry Ed, I did change my projections for 2005.
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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My forecast is 12/6/4 and will remain so, I'm going to say we have our first named system by June 10th...based on the fact that we already have something spinning around, and the numerous forecasts going out that say we will have an above average year. I think that signal might be going somewhere...just pure gut.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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well...last year i went with 14/8/3 (day before gray did) and we got 15/9/6! earlier this year i went low, but i think ima bump up my numbers for this season...already seems to be getting a bit active and ima shoot for an early season cane this time around...
therefore...14/7/4...and may they all spin the fishes and stay the hell away from Florida and the East Coast!
First named Hurricane...June 22nd
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i have to agree with phil on this...stay the hell away...
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Wishing and hoping is good , but when it comes down to basics, we who live in Florida and the islands need to keep our guard up. Ask Lysis and Cycloneye , they`ll tell ya......Bottom line. be prepared....Weatherchef
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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you know bc i totally agree with you, last year it was craziness...this year i have the website i can count on ...dont want to take any chances and would like to as much in advance as possible...i experienced my first hurricane season last year...definetly dont want a repeat of tryign to prepare...and yes i am well aware of living in florida, hurricanes are something you must deal with...and i know where i live in tampa bay is due for a big one...lol...too many people have told me that not to think that...lol...well thats my thought for the day.... 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Its crazy to try and predict where a storm is going to impact. Every place that hasn`t had any tropical action in one or more decades, the word goes out that " we`re do for the big one this year". You just don`t know. Being Floridians, odds are that we stand to see a little more action than other areas. Its just the way it is. On a positive note, you now have the to help you get throught the summer. Its a great forum........Weatherchef
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