Clark
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Hey guys -- it's nice and all, but like Phil mentioned, it's something for the Other Basins forum (click on "Forum" in the left sidebar, then look for the Other Basins forum). If it crosses into the Atlantic, then it's something to watch here. The moisture lifting northward in response to a trough over the western U.S. is moreso the moisture near the subtropical jet axis -- i.e. the moisture already present into the Caribbean -- and not in association with this system. Anything that would move towards the Gulf, no matter where its origins may be, would be sheared apart before doing anything of consequence. Rainfall, as the /TPC noted, would be the only nuisance to watch out for -- but we see that on occasion this time of year regardless.
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Storm Hunter
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not yet. looks like a chance of rain this weekend for extreme south florida/cuba.... does anyone see a swirl between jamica and south cuba? i was just looking at vis in the area and it caught my eye. i am looking for local obs right now... it seems interesting, but could be nothing!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Nrl has it as noname http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
oops wrong thread look in other basins 90E Strenghtens
Edited by hurricane_run (Tue May 17 2005 03:08 PM)
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Haha! Look at the 12Z on 90E! Has a major cane hitting Guatamala, then re-intensifying to hurricane status in the western caribbean running southeast of Miami through the Bahamas!! Caution: for entertainment purposes only (ATTM) :  Not good for the poor folks down there though 
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Bloodstar
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Well, it looks like everything down there has fizzled, despite some low level swirls that keep popping up, they're too close to land and way too sheared to really get anything organized over on that end. but it's still fun to watch to see if anything gets together, which I'd put at about a 1 in 100 chance...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
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U. Arizona PhD Student
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Lysis
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EDIT: ok, ok
Oops...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue May 17 2005 04:14 PM)
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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don't now what to say cept that that the wind at 950mb. and its a model? 
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LI Phil
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i recommend everyone read Clark's post in the "other storm basins" forum...we could have some atl action this weekend/next week from NONAME in the EastPAC, which he feels could not only become a hurricane but a major cane! if this energy were able to cross central america and get into the atl. basin, we would be looking at the first May storm in the at. in 25 years! where she (arlene, if it became named) goes is still uncertain, but it'd be interesting nonetheless...
i'd recommend everyone getting their 2005 "predictions" in a little early...just visit the "2005 Storm Forum" (the link just below the main board). Post your seasonal prediction and your date for the first hurricane...as long as you are a registered user, you are welcome to participate!
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LONNY307
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I think someone has to take the model,open up the window and throw it out. If we have to deal with this model all season I'm going back to the weather channel.
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Lysis
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Phil, where is Clarks post?
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cheers
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LI Phil
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Quote:
Phil, where is Clarks post?
It is in the "OTHER STORM BASINS" section...but i'll make it easy for you...here it is:
"Don't discount the solution just yet. Conditions are there for rapid intensification once this thing gets going, despite the direction of motion. The SSTs are very warm -- 30+ C -- in the region, shear is low, and the subtropical jet to the north will only assist in enhancing outflow while in the east Pacific. As the storm organizes and becomes better defined, we could see one round of rapid intensification before landfall, perhaps even to major hurricane status (as the calls for). I wouldn't go 125kt yet, but 100kt is possible. The people along the entire Central American coast -- Pacific and Caribbean sides -- need to watch this one. Two-three days is the time frame we're looking at, particularly the latter end of that.
As for evolution after landfall: what path the storm takes across land will determine how much survives into the Caribbean. Obviously, the narrower the path, the stronger the remnant circulation. A deep trough should be located off-shore of the U.S. coast as it re-emerges into the Caribbean, but a cut-off low over the Gulf (not the one there now, but down the road 4 days) as a ridge builds across the central Plains may interact with the storm, resulting in a deviation to the track from what we might expect. Best bet now is to go with the "flow" and call for a continued NE progression, similar to that shown in the . Shear is going to be pretty high no matter where it goes here, though, and the evolution may not end up entirely tropical as a result.
We may well get our first Atlantic May storm in nearly 25 years in the next week. I'm not going to say that it will happen for certain, but the ingredients are there to potentially see something. I'm more confident in something happening here than I was before, and I'll leave it at that for now. Watch this storm in the EPac though -- it's certainly going to affect the coast of Mexico/Cent. America pretty hard in a few days' time. "
This post was brought to us by Clark...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
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Rabbit
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it is interesting on TD 1-E to look at the forecast track out 72+ hours
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 87.0W... NORTH OF HONDURAS
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 82.0W... NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
they are officially forecasting it to enter the NW Caribbean as at least a TD
also, i just looked at the , am i seeing what i think i see?
a tropical storm south of Cuba by Saturday afternoon and a hurricane in the Bahamas by Sunday??
Edited by Rabbit (Tue May 17 2005 05:12 PM)
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Lysis
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Thanks Phil... this is absolutely crazy! But the drama continues I guess.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue May 17 2005 05:09 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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its even more interesting when you see the forecast
this is for real
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Storm Hunter
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well...... 5day forecast keeps it as TD? 5day
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Kevin
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Who'd thunk it? We're looking at rare May system moving toward Central America.
The intensity forecast is pretty interesting. They're basically calling for a fairly weak storm throughout, but the possiblity exists for a much stronger system (perhaps a hurricane). For now, the depression is in an area that is favorable for development. A hurricane seems possible, but I think a moderate/strong TS at landfall is a bit more reasonable (per ).
After the crossing of Central America, what's left of the system will have to be looked at. A trough will likely have dipped into the Caribbean by that time, so it is possible that the system will get torn to shreds. An alternate scenario is that the system begins to take on some frontal characteristics. In any event, TD 1E bears some watching for folks on both sides.
The oddity seemingly continues...
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Clark
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Hurricane near Cuba isn't likely to happen. But something along the lines of what the says may well happen.
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Keith234
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I don't think it will make it over the mountains of central america, unless it gets to at least a CAT 2 before landfalling. Either way, does central america have a way of warning for hurricanes? It may be a stupid question, but it would seem logical, b/c a hurricane doesn't normally flow the opposite the direction of the prevailing winds...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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I still say that it is possible to have a TS in the Caribbean by Sunday
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hurricane_run
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now that i agree is a possibility
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