Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
my weather guy mitchell on channel 28 in tampa bay just said that if it does cross over it will be atlantic first named storm... 
by the time the storm get's into the atlantic (sat or sun), i believe a strong 500 ridge will have asserted itself in the desert southwest, allowing for some shortwave energy to ride down into the gulf. The proximity to this feature will spell SHEAR for the system, at least that's what I can make of it.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
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hurricane_run
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the slot of dry air is nearly gone now wv seems to be losing some of its strong convection on IR. But as someone said ealier storm tend to weaken during CERC or while trying to form an eye
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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thats if it goes that far north. If it stays on a more easterly course it will be father south in the Carib. were there wont be as much shear, but that is only a possibilty if it stay more to the south and isn't shreaded over the C.A. mountains.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Hello, ! I didn't expect to be visiting this site so early in the year!
I had a question regarding the models. Because there is little climatological precedent for a storm like Adrian, how much confidence are people placing in the models? I think the fact that they are mostly in agreement is a good sign, however. Was just wondering what people thought.
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hurricane_run
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well if you were looking at CLIPER (CLimate and PERsistance) it would be bsically useless. has been giving this storm a lot of stength. So it depends and that is why there is more then one model. Some models are statistical and others are dynamic but most are hybrids. So on one factor (climatology) they may be skewed but others maybe right on. Well just have to wait and see.
Any of the experts want to add?
P.S Clark and Jason and others may have better input.
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Storm Cooper
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I am no expert like JK or Clark but the models have been rather tight on this storm (track) and we are talking about a bunch of models. I don't know of a "favorite" model this season.... just have to see as time goes on the ones that verify the best and go from there.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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exactly
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Look in the other basin's forum, the latest thread on pg 1 i believe i made a post regarding the models and the confidence on forecasting for this event.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Wed May 18 2005 10:31 PM)
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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the western outflow boundary seems to be dissolving and is reforming nicely, its lookin' like a Hurricane
Edited by hurricane_run (Wed May 18 2005 10:38 PM)
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Thanks, everyone. No one that I've talked to in Ft. Myers thinks we have anything to worry about...but it is definitely strange to be talking tropics so early in the year!
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Keith I think Adrian is definitly in the last few frames taking more a true NE movement.The idea of it going more of a Southerly course is out I think.The UKMET had a hard prog to the N pretty much what is happening now.That being the case it's going to be tough going for development on the other side esp. if that short wave makes it's way down far enough you were talking about.Adrian seems to becoming a little more stable in it's outflow pattern still only thinkin ,maybe 85-90mph tops really if that.Alot of good evaluations goin on.The season has started.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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anyone think a 1007 mb low near the turks/caicos, or the 1008mb low apprx. 200 miles sw of jamica will play a big role in adrian's movmt?
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HanKFranK
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i was thinking that banding eye earlier signified a good bit more strengthening than has really taken place. jumped the gun some.. the 'eye' has filled and the definition is ragged right now. it might be a diurnal minumum, or choking on subsidence or something. the western outflow is more restricted than yesterday, but the poleward outflow seems much enhanced.
clark's mention of the right-of-forecast track does present the interesting case that the storm will keep out of the serious shear and decelerate more as it crosses.. and not take the quick ENE track presented in the official. if it goes left, probably won't have any chance of recovery once it goes feet dry. not much confidence in either scenario.
the models are still generating weak lows north of the greater antilles today, and there's still a lot of disturbed weather in the central caribbean and points north and northeast. diffluence around upper troughs and splits is generating a couple of surface troughs near 23/70 and 25/45. somewhere in the middle has an interesting low. none of these are particularly convincing when it comes to development, though. convection in the caribbean continues, but none of the mccs persist long enough to get the 'siphon' going at the surface, as has been happening for days.
so anyhow, it's probably just adrian.. but adrian is interesting enough.
HF 2353z18may
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Hurricane Guy
Unregistered
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I wonder why my past posts are deleted?
I was the first to bring the good news about this storm
Due to content...be careful of what you say and how you say it in the future
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed May 18 2005 11:26 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The models don't really use climatology; they are dynamical in nature, meaning they see what is going on and forecast from that (whether or not the initial values it gets are flawed or not is another story). Despite no precedent, the dynamical models (GFDL, AVN, etc) shouldn't have any trouble with this, or at least more trouble than normal.
The statistical models -- CLIPER, SHIPS, and so on -- will likely have some trouble, as they rely on what they know. Even the Superensemble, which incorporates a lot of training/climo into its database, will likely have some trouble with such a case.
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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as of 8 pm EDT Adrian 60mph ENE 8mph and the NHC says could strengthen into a hurricane on thursday.
Edited by hurricane_run (Wed May 18 2005 11:53 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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didn't see this earlier today....
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT WED 18 MAY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST ON REMNENTS
OF TS ADRIAN NEAR 16N AND 86.5W AT 20/2000Z, ALSO PSBL GIV
MISSION CENTERED AROUND 21/0000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 0101E ADRIAN
C. 19/1130Z
D. 13.0N 90.5W
E. 19/1600Z TO 20/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.......NEGATIVE
WVW
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu May 19 2005 01:48 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Tampa's Fox 13 is doing a special on hurricane items. It'll be interesting to hear what the local met has to say about Adrian/Arlene/Dysfunctional Hurricane #1 shortly.
I believe that at the 5pm advisory they did say she was moving ESE; haven't seen any loops yet to see if that's changed.
Ok, I'm listening to this guy talk about buying these things like kevlar screens, $20,000 generators and etc...a total of $50,000 to get one guy's house ready. People here are still trying to get there house's fixed from LAST year. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Well, if he/she/it takes the track it's currently forecast to take, I don't think they'll be much left of it when it crosses into the Carribean/Gulf. Sounds like the biggest problem will be the rain - 20-25" across CA. How do you possibly prepare for that? 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Colleen is that special on Fox 13 on tonight?? Or tomorrow sometime? I would like to see it. Thanks!
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