hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
yep
|
Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
|
|
Yes Adrian last gas for the next 12 hours as shear is increasing as it gets closer to the coast.Also part of the circulation is already in the high terrain being very affected by those big mountains there.
|
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
if the center is in the northern part of the storm it will be making landfall soon.
the reason I think it is in the northern part is looking at these:
vis
pic
ir
|
Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
|
|
Obviously concerned for the people being affected, I can't imagine that they are as prepared as we become when a storm is on the way.
Hoping the storm will dissipate soon and definitely not make it's way to the Bahamas. They have been through so much last season.
If the storm were to survive and regroup and follow the projected path into the Atlantic, is it possible it would end up entangled in this Bermuda High and have no way to go except back at us? I of course am not sure of what's prevailing/path of least resistance out there.
--------------------
When it rains, it pours...
|
Lysis
User
Reged:
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
|
|
Unless by some miracle of God, I don't think we in Florida have to worry about this, buddy. 
--------------------
cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu May 19 2005 11:45 PM)
|
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
i really wouldn't call it a miracle.
|
FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
|
|
i think i have to agree with hurricane run on this one...
--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
|
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
the isn't calling that much of a come back. GFDL But hey its the tropics we'll have to wait and see
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
looking at the 2005051918 run .....at the end of the run...hints that maybe the extropical low my turn back to the north or even northwest, near or towards bermuda?...... just some long range looks...... still would have to survive the cntrl amer. mountains first, which looks like its not going to....
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
ftlaudbob
Unregistered
|
|
Take a look at the last frame of the water vapor image,she seems to pull herself together.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
me thinks land may spell doom for adrian, although there is always the chance he survives his trek across the mountains and makes it to the other side....
i just can't forsee conditions being perfect enough for proper regeneration, though i 'spose it can't be completely ruled out...
i just hope he doesn't dump 20+ inches in the mountains on his way across...that could be very very bad for whomever happens to be in the path of the runoff...
guess we'll know more by morning's light...
till then...
ya'll have a g'nite
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
HF gone home
Unregistered
|
|
adrian is moving inland now, as per the intermediate advisory. the stats were adjusted to very minimal hurricane strength, so adrian's feet-dry survival chances are slimmer yet. the convection will probably shear off overnight and leave a flaring, exposed LLC. since the has been discussing the idea for days, i reckon they'll continue to track whatever comes off even if it's really pathetic as far as tropical cyclones go. even odds they'll call it t.d. adrian or t.d. 1A. the chances of it ever getting back to t.s. strength aren't too great, but if so, it'll be one of those interesting decision-making processes to see what the does. they probably just want adrian to go away, rather than have to listen to half the folks who think differently than their application of naming conventions bicker about them. i've done that often enough that... well, i feel a little guilty. the discussions issued so far have done much to explain their philosophy and i applaud them for that. makes it easier to ignore that opinionated historical database nazi in me that wants to see congruencies and consistent application of the rules throughout. what can i say, climo is my thing...
unless adrian pulls something else miraculous (aside from being the only hurricane to landfall in el salvador on record).. that's probably our may system right there. in retrospect, am a little surprised that the major media hasn't picked up on this odd little storm. i guess if it isn't threatening new orleans or miami it isn't news. but then, if it doesn't make the news now it will be because it didn't hurt el salvador/honduras too bad. so say a prayer that adrian doesn't get a headline, for the welfare of our neighbors to the south.
HF 0658z20may
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
I agree. Adrien has a poor change of survival through the mountains and the upcoming wind shear.
This year is starting off on the strange side. Looks to be an interesting season.
MaryAnn
|
hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
|
|
the mountains are just tearing it apart.
|
nl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
|
|
hey peeps! well looks like adrian is a goner. so what's next anything coming off of africa. the carribeans look active but everything is still going east for now. what's up with that low shooting straight southeast and causing tropical storm force winds last nigh in kentucky? so when do we think the first named atlantic storm will be and do u see any thing in june? the waters are pretty warm. ive been checking the bouies some are at 83. 
|
javlin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
|
|
Yep will have to wait.CMC as late as yesterday morning still prog her to develop now absolutly nothing.NOGAPS basically 1008mb low,UKMET alittle more mybe a TD still can't see that.GFS sees nothing.I think we might have to wait till late June or early July for .The sub-tropical jet needs to move out with it's shear.
|
Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
|
|
Agree with that javlin.Here in Puerto Rico I would like to see the normal trade winds that blow from the east return because in all May those winds haved been absent.Until that jet lifts northward I guess that the trades wont be around.
|
B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
|
|
Adios Adrien. South west shear will probably inhibit any developement of whats left of the system when it hits the Caribbean. Pray for the people around Puerto La Libertad. Lots of rain and flooding for them today.......Weatherchef
|
Liz
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
|
|
Adrien is completely torn apart. This there a place where we can look at a radar of CA?
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
It was on the other night, but maybe you can go to their website and get some more information about it.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
