SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The following are prototype model track maps based on the latest model data (as detailed in each image)
Enjoy.
Track map
Full size
County zoom
Full size
Model Initialization points
Full size
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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I have tried to install jave during install i get error massage.
Tried manual install, whith no resolve as it says I already have java 5.0 update 2
No java in browser or in control panel. I dont know what else to do
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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mysticalmooons -- with the current convective structure, there is always the possibility of the center reforming nearer to the deep convection as/if/when the storm attempts to become better organized. That is actually common with many weak and/or sheared storms and is often seen when there is a broad area of low pressure, such as with TD 1. However, as of yet there isn't much indication of this happening: low-level center still appears to be on the west side of the system. But, the current organization to the bands & somewhat natural tendency for storms to try to become better organized hints that unless we see some development near the center soon, we could well see this occur with TD 1 as well.
Aside: convection on the west side of the storm died off several hours ago (first indicated by an outflow boundary being ejected towards the west from the complex, followed by the collapse of the convection). This hints that we might not see a lot of convective development near the current center for the time being, due to a somewhat stabilized environment. Given some time, though, maybe 6-12h more, the environment should have sufficiently recovered for new convective development to occur.
Ultimate impact of a reformation towards the east, with regards to track: probably would result in the storm ending up a bit more to the east at landfall, but probably not dramatically so. Things have the tendency to even out with time, despite the inability of the models to capture all of the inner processes tropical cyclones go through, as the overall flow regime at mid & upper levels should be more or less the same given a 1-2 deg jump to the east. Ultimately though, the main changes come to the track & intensity over the first day -- more to the east and stronger due to better organization, respectively.
Hope this helps answer things. We'll know a lot more in 12-18hr as to what this storm is going to do...especially once the big jets get out there to sample the storm & its environment.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I would remove and reinstall www.java.com/en/download/windows_automatic.jsp
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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Thank you clark, That helped somewhat, lol
I am 24 and cook on cocoa beach, and dont know what the hell u were talking about , BUT I did grasp the understanding. So essentally then a waiting game, lol
But I do think it will move more eastern if not by much a little. ( just to hope to be right, lol)
Anyways hope everyone is having fun. I am always interested in the weather and hope to learn more
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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thats the caveat.. a new center in the better environment to the east is the pathway to a much stronger storm. all of that mid-level dry air got in the center today and nixed the tightening/organization process.. the convective bands to the east keeping the inflow forcing on outer bands exacerbated the situation. there's still lots of that 'robber convection' as i call it away to the east, and streaming northwest along the depression's edge in the easterly flow. if the center were to jump over into that we'd have a hurricane in 36 hrs.. probably won't though.
do think it will get to tropical storm tomorrow.. figured on slow, but it's actually going a bit slower than i'd reckoned.
HF 0621z09june
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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mysticmooons -- sorry, my mistake. I sometimes still need work on better explaining things; within the education I'm getting, we don't do that a lot and mainly end up just talking amongst ourselves about something, which is usually pretty technical. Essentially though, it could have an impact, but not a great one in the long run. That's not always the case, as we saw with minor deviations during the 2004 hurricane season, but I think is more or less the case with TD 1.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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I agree with you both Clark and Hank, I've realized that depressions usually wait around until they enter more favorable atomospheric condtions then start to organize. The ones that dont encounter better conditions fall apart. Anyways Hank, what are your thoughts on future track and intensity? Care to give it a shot. Most models have been in an agreement that the area from SE LA too about Destin, FL are the most likely points. Im sticking close to the track, what about you?
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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Thats ok, Hell the more technical the more I like it. Besides look at all the terms and explainations I am learning by it and others. ll take things I dont know and look them upo so I can understand them more. LOL 
Besides no one ever said weather was easy so I dont think the teaching should be easy. Teach on ,lol
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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL
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kinda off topic put with the help of the lovley people in the chat i am working on fixing the recon decoder
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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TD1 sure looks like it's getting it's act together tonight. The convection is surely firing off a lot more than it was earlier in the day. Certainly the healthiest it's looked since it's inception.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the center is now exposed, but there is deep convection firing east of the center, and t'storms seem to be trying to form NW of the center
aside from that, the pressure has not risen at the 2am advisory as i had expected
how much longer does everyone think until we have ?
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Droop31
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
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I agree. Its good to see Im not the only one up at this time of night. I just looked at the 00Z and it has basically stayed on track. Shows landfall around Mobile/Pensacola at Minimal Cat 1. Im not sure about intensity, but the track seems to be in agreement with many other models. Tomorrow afternoon, I believe we'll have . Im thinking about 55-60mph at landfall.
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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3 AM hour...the convection that fired over Hond. this evening is now being consolidated into the system. Overall, the system is looking a little better but still on the ragged side.
I think we may see at 11 AM. Just a guess though.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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TD1 looking better organized this morning. Convection seems to be trying to wrap around the center more; Although still not much on the west and SW sides. I think will have a named storm at 5pm update and a minimal Cat 1 at landfall somewhere between Panama City and FL/Alabama border.
Hurric
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying in and around Tropical Depression 1 since around 1:30 AM EDT.
They have made 2 passes through the "center" area and have repeatedly found a very slight decrease in barometric pressure, and a very slight increase in wind speed.
0639Z pressure extrapolated to sea level- 1003mb
0847Z pressure extrapolated to sea level- 1002mb
0639Z Maximum flight level wind was 31 kt in the NW quad
0847Z maximum flight level wind was 34 kt in the SE quad
Watching the satellites over the last 5 hours has proven interesting. What first appeared to be a decay in the convection on the eastern semi-circle of the depression. Is now solid convection and lightning, from the 12 o'clock position around to the 6 o'clock position.
The East Gulf of Mexico buoy-42003 1010.4mb, winds ENE 14kts, waves 2ft.
Noaa buoy 42056, sw of Grand Cayman 1004.6mb. highest 1 min wind-27.2 and waves at 7.9ft.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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Td1 will be later today. Pressure is drpping and winds are incresing.
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Well here it is the first tropical storm of the 2005 season.
Edited by Cycloneye11 (Thu Jun 09 2005 07:28 AM)
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