hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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yahoo.com says gulf to be hit by TS by friday.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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True... 1012ish, I knew that... I guess I forgot the conversion factor! It's easier to calculate.... P=NkT (the atmospheric ideal gas law... I much prefer PV=nRT, but that's ok...) P=2.46e25*1.381e-23*298 gives a P=101.23 kPa, which is 1012.3 mB. Silly me for trying to remember a silly conversion factor rather than do the calculation!
Pretty sad that I know the number density at atmospheric pressure better than I know the conversion factor... I know... but, I guess after a million scale height calculations in grad school, something had to stick with me!
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Thu Jun 09 2005 08:10 PM)
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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Wow.....You are Smart!!!
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Center is either re-forming or she is kind of falling apart. The western center that was exposed earlier does not look as defined now. I can't even pick it out anymore. No offense to those in LA and MS, but I sure hope you guys get this one. My beaches haven't recovered from yet.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I agree, I don't think you can find a really defined center no matter how hard you look at this thing on the vis sat loop... not doing all that great at the moment... guess we'll see what she does if she makes it into the S GOM....
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adogg76
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Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 245 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005
... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...
... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF...
... NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. INCLUDED TORNADO IMPACTS.
... AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
... WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
... STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER... SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB... OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY.
... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY... AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER... THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM... BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.
... MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING... WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
... WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING... EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS... SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
... TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
... STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM .
From weather.com
... NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT.
...
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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yep i guess we will see. if the center is reforming under some convection that might be able to help it stregthen later.
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adogg76
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Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service
...MONROE LOWER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS- 150 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005
... HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS IMPACTING THE FLORIDA KEYS...
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS... ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH... WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH... WILL BE AFFECTING THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS CROSSING BRIDGES ALONG THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY... AS WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE ELEVATED EXPOSED BRIDGE SPANS. HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE MILE... AS WELL AS PRODUCE MINOR STREET FLOODING. STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE MINOR SALT WATER OVERWASH ALONG ROADWAYS WITH AN ATLANTIC EXPOSURE... SUCH AS SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST... OR THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT.
MONITOR THE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
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adogg76
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http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/bu...mated&day=1
link to the 2100 mile radar out of Key West.....does not look good to me.....seems to be effecting showers over much of Southeastern U.S. already! Thoughts??
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Clark
Meteorologist
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adogg76 -- the safety of the people comes first. If there were reason to close any airports or make any evacuations at this point in time, rest assured that they would be done. Precautions were taken before every storm last year in the areas where the storms hit...and where they didn't hit. If people wish to not heed them, that is another question entirely.
The center either appears to be dissipating or reforming near the Isle of Youth. It's tough to tell, however, with the cloud mass obscuring the latter feature on visible imagery. At the very least, however, the mid-level center is likely found near the Isle of Youth, per the fairly impressive IR imagery signature, and the currently tracked low-level center is looking rather unimpressive at this time. Recon is currently on its way out there, so we should know more over the next few hours.
Any reformation of the center this far to the east will likely result in some changes to the projected track (not to mention the intensity). Such a possibility was discussed last night, but even this big of a jump would be beyond what I expected, making a track change likely inevitable. New Orleans appears to be on the extreme west end of where the center may go; anywhere east to the Suwanee River in FL is still under the gun as well. Don't see any large reason to disagree with the 's track & intensity, but a supposed shift east would require a shift to the east in the track and perhaps a slight nudge upward in intensity.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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True or False.....
Feeder bands produce the most dangerous threat of tornadoes during a storm.
Feeder bands moving in on radar for the state of Florida.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I just watched the 4:00pm update on ...Jim Cantore will be somewhere in northern Florida, someone's coming to Naples. Why?
And the t-storms that we had before were CLASSIC feeder bands, just as I thought they were and just that. BayNews9 saying that it will be breezy and rainy over the weekend. Yuck...80% chance of rain tomorrow.
And oh my are about to get hammered again. Are you getting bad storms over there, Katie?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
Here in Daytona we have a steady wind out of the south at 12 mph with gusts at 26. No rain yet, just very cloudy
And very humid.  On the MLB radar though it looks like we'll be getting some rain shortly.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Thu Jun 09 2005 08:25 PM)
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adogg76
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Safety is of course foremost.....
But when our TV Weather people tell us cattle that a storm will be heading for the GOM as opposed to Florida.....everyone breathes an OK..yet we will clearly be affect by this event in the coming days.....even NOW as we speak!
We won't all run for the hills if we are told to be ready.....of course, we won't operate gas burning generators in our homes either??
No offense intended to those affected.
I just want to know if I can go to the beach Saturday........or will it be gone.....again!
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Clark. I don't see the center reforming that far east. It looks more like it formed farther north and maybe a little east, but still not under the thunderstorm complex. Looks to be just on the western side.
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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VERY HUMID!!!!!
look outside....you are in TS !!
No biggie...lotsa rain tho!!
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Andrew was 1015 at one point...with 45 mph winds.
MM
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jth
Storm Tracker
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All that said, the bouy data suggest that the center is still south of 20 N. I can't get a handle on the center, but based on the winds and pressure at the bouy in the NW Carrib, it is still south of 20 moving N.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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adogg -- instead of posting the entire statement, could you post a link to it instead and maybe briefly state what you're looking at there? With the front page of the website, many of these statements are already available to everyone here right at the top of the page -- all that it takes to read them is one click. Thanks!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 092024
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/20:12:10Z
B. 20 deg 09 min N
084 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 310 deg 054 nm
F. 051 deg 032 kt
G. 313 deg 109 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 22 C/ 464 m
J. 24 C/ 469 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF302 0301A OB 04
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 19:36:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
PRELIMINARY
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