Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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jth - I agree. I probably should've been more explicit with my locations; my mistake. However, it's really tough to tell without better visible satellite imagery & actual recon data. This could also be a case like several storms in the past approaching the Windwards -- the low-level circulation dissipates, despite a well-defined mid-level circulation, and the overall system weakens from here on out. Given little in the way of substantial evidence either way, we'll likely see status quo at 5p from the .
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adogg76
Weather Hobbyist
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My bet is.....
Should probably have more than a flood watch in place for Miami. They will be doused in about an hour, as the last of the daytime heating takes effect and produces large bands coming in from the SE......
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I don't think we will know for sure whether or not the center has reformed to the east until we get some recon information. Like Clark said, it's a possibility and these storms are fickle -- especially poorly organized ones like -- and it is very possible to see a new center reform. That, of course, would not bode well for Florida. However, I don't think Florida's going to miss out on any of the rain. And don't forget...there is room for error in that cone..and it could be to the right, so the is still on track. I wonder if we'll see any shift to the right at 5pm. Prolly not.
Ok..I got the actual area where Jim Cantore will be: PENSACOLA. Janeen Albert will be in Marco Island, Florida.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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I am looking at the sat. pict. it is called scat? well anyways i think the the center will reform as a smaller LLC just south of 20n center of 84w. This is a wind diagram from navy. Any thoughts on this and I do think if the center does reform we may actually see a brief if any hurricane?
seeing my weekend trashed, lol
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...F_NAME=al012005
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Track just shifted back to the west a few mile as of the 5pm update
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 092024 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/20:12:10Z
B. 20 deg 09 min N
084 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 310 deg 054 nm
F. 051 deg 032 kt
G. 313 deg 109 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 22 C/ 464 m
J. 24 C/ 469 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /01
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF302 0301A OB 04 CCA
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 19:36:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
heres cuba radars, having a time to get them to work.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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yes they (NHC) did HCW (rolltide), and now the has a landfall just west of mobile roundabout 4:00 pm on Saturday afternoon. they still keep it as a TS...based on what jason said earlier it seems as though it will not attain cane strength (and i hope it does not) but i still wouldn't discount that possibility...maybe not at landfall, and maybe not at all...but i wouldn't let my guard down, especially if i lived on a boat in mobile bay
jason: b or g? 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Hey, buddy! They let you out on good behavior! Yeah!
Do you remember last year when I had all those problems with the *frogs* leaping all over my back porch pretty much paralyzing me in fear? Well, they're baaccccckkk. Snakes, too. I just went out on the porch to check my rain meter (1") and there were two little garter snakes (at least I hope that's what they were) slithering around in the pool area. I picked them up and threw them out the porch door! The creatures are searching for high ground, I suppose.
I noticed the was initializing way too west with on the model maps, but I don't know how much confidence they have in that model with this storm. By the time I'm done writing this, the 5pm will be out and we'll all know whether or not the center has reformed or the track has shifted. Although I'm going to bet that it won't be shifted much, if at all.
Also, I didn't know this...but the hurricane hunters are also checking out 91L. Hm. Could we have TS Alrene AND TD#2 at 5pm?
Also...almost the entire southern half of Florida is under a flood watch.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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So according to that vortex message the max observed surface wind was 28.75mph(25kt)?
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Check the Surf
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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20.2 84.2 at 5PM. Track shifted back to the west some.......sitting off of the Mouth of the Mississippi on Saturday morning.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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my boat on Mobile Bay, is actually inland a bit. At Dog River, and well protected...not exactly right there on the water front. However, the storm surge will be a problemo. The winds will be no big whoop...unless it gets to 100 or so..even then ....hafta take a direct hit, and the thing would have to strengthen. wonder what the storm surge would be...and if it came in at high tide...etc...
probably a non event...unless it strengthens to a 2...other than that...just a lotta fun, waiting for the cat 4-5, that will hit New Orleans this year...imho....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Max winds are still at 40mph. I knew if I said it would shift to the right it would actually shift back to left. I am not as concerned with the actual landfall - after all, it's a poorly organized tropical storm and if were to hit Florida, it would be probably a minimum TS. What I am more concerned about is the rain associated with it. Because I think we're going to get a lot of it. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Southern4sure
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
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Quote:
waiting for the cat 4-5, that will hit New Orleans this year...imho....
That would be a disaster. Are you wishing this to happen...sorry but that what it sounds like.
Teresa
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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My behavior is consistent.... bad...
Colleen, check the diameter of the frog legs, who knows, if they're big enough you can fry up a batch..... then freeze em and they'll make great survival food for that late season big Cat 4 that's probably going to take half of Florida with it ....
GFDL just kills me sometimes creating intensity levels that never come to fruition.... but every now and then it lucks up and gets one right relative to projection.... I think the is influenced way to much by it....
anyone catch that hot pink shirt Jim C. had on last night, and boy, was he ever fired up about this storm...
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Rick, please man I live in New Orleans. Could you not wish 25 feet of water on me? 
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah, Rick was sweating bullets last year with threatening to wipe out the southern half of Alabama.... for a while we didn't know what happened to good ole Cat 5 Rick after .... Seems he's wised up now, sending them Cat 5's elsewhere... hehe
Ricks da man....
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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sorry about the remark about New Orleans...didn't mean to imply i was wishcasting. However, since I made the remark...I will say this...New Orleans is below sea level, and at the current time, they DO NOT have the pumps and engineering in place to deal with a 4-5 direct hit. they have dodged bullets since hurricane Frederic hit Mobile in 79....and even before that....
it seems like it will be a busy year, doesn't it?....anyone wanna discount the fact that they say we are in a period of intesified activity...plus with global warming...what are we to expect?.....
this site will do much to alleviate unnecessary fears...and when the big one comes, if it does...to do what is necessary to protect life and limb.
You can't predict them accurately...up until late in the evening...when hit us...we all thought we would wake up with destruction..and yet...at the last minute....Ivan jogged to Pensacola...and we were spared. Had it stayed the course...my boat would've been demolished...so the lights could actually go out...and then...the thing could make a last minute jog...and hammer 50 miles this way or that...and it makes a BIG difference....
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well i have been calling for a Mobile, AL, landfall or just to the east since this thing developed, and i dont plan on changing that yet Visible imagery would seem to suggest multiple low-level centres with , making it difficult to track for sure. Interesting that she hasnt sped up yet, and is still trundling north at 8 mph. With this slower motion, and the expected improvement in upper-level conditions by late Friday, we could see some significant strengthening prior to a gulf coast landfall - providing she can maintain at least some organisation til after her passage over Cuba.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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Yeah Rick, I live in Kenner which is 10 minutes away from New Orleans!! I don't want this place I live decimated!! I hope and pray and wish the best for everyone this year. Oh and I am not worried about in the least!!
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Displaced Cajun
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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damn this thing called work sometimes makes it hard for me to keep up with the posts...but Frank P. (out on his 6 month sabbatical from the WPP) pretty much summed up CAT V Rick awright...to anyone out there who does not know some of the long timers on this board, up until , Rick saw every cloud over the GOM as a potential CAT V headed straight for Mobile...it was kinda the boards own inside joke...then came and it wasn't quite so funny anymore...so that's that.
as far as New Orleans...I believe a strong CAT III (or higher) would basically DESTROY that city, something residents have realized since 1979...despite the city planners best efforts, NO is basically a bowl shaped piece of land and much of it is below sea level...a 25+" rain event coupled with storm surge would cripple the city, as the pumps would be overwhelmed....basically, New Orleans could be considered America's most vulnerable city...not necessarily from a probability standpoint, but from it's ability to withstand a major cane...
let us all hope and pray that day never comes, because if it does...it will certainly be our costliest (if not deadliest) hurricane ever
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
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