berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I took a long look at the satellite loop over the system and the loop between 1545Z and 2145Z shows a slow drift to the N, but I don't see any evidence of a new center, and the center is currently exposed. Between the upper trough in GOM, the shear which appears to be slackening, it begs the question with the dry entrainment affecting it to the west, we could be looking at a hybrid system and as you know those systems tend to have a large circulation envelope. I don't buy the new vortex with what I'm seeing on the visible satellite. If I were to look at the water vapor; maybe, the visible clearly shows a closed circulation away from the convection; though it is not too far away. It is clearly not in a good environment to wind up with the upper trough to the west and it's dry air.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon must be in the storms to ENE of the center. Been watching vis late this afternoon and it looks like there may be a new center trying to form. Just south of the tip of Cuba. The exposed low level swirl of the center is still spinning. Also appears that the much drier air to the wnw of center, near the tip of yucatan is fading away. So take a look at the lastest vis and see what you see.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I agree there is some improvement in the visible satellite presentation, but there is no evidence of a new center forming. The center while away from convection, it's too early (as of 23Z) whether convection is showing some wrapping around the center; though it is not too far away from the center. You have to remember the north and east quadrants, relative to movement are expected to have stronger convection, as is this case here.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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schmee
Unregistered
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is the high building in over FL?
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Yea and my step-children live in Algers and they would blow up the west bank levee and that would not be good for them because of the flooding plus I would not have no place to go walking when I go back to NO 
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tb_hurricane
Unregistered
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New vortex possible....would be interesting if it forms... at my house strong wind gusts today to 50 mph with a line of afternoon "typical summer" storms that hit
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MikeG
Unregistered
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latest recon have fl winds up to 52.9mph?
pressure down to 1001mb?
20.7 83.8
here's a map of latest votex positions. map of storm drops
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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is that the current location?...if so it seems from the last location it has moved to the northeast....am i wrong?
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
With the gulf surface temperature barely over 80 degrees F and with landfall expected Saturday I wouldn't bet on becoming a hurricane at all.
Where did you find this temperature, or better yet, temperature of the ambient air above the ocean?
Nevermind on the rest.... I need to think about it a little more....
Edited by Terra (Thu Jun 09 2005 11:25 PM)
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MikeG
Unregistered
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no....its just where the plane had dropped dropsonde for weather updates..... susprised they are flying over cuba.
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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oh ok i was just wondering because i was gonna be like better go get my supplies while i can...lol...thanks for clarifying for me....any new news on 91?
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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NRL seems to have dropped 91L because the convection has dissipated and the LLC is weakening
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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That's the new possible location of the center of circulation it has relocated.Still moving N @ 8mph.Also the waters from YUC channel to the mouth of the MS are the warmest waters in the GOM 80-83 degrees.It has been said further E on the storms location helps in development removing from the shear and dry air.Even though this not much maybe.3 degrees E and some N.We have to see if the models do anything with this a couple runs from now.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Please check the times on any Recon source that you use outside of . I noticed last night that there was a substantial delay, an hour or more, in some of the reports hitting websites other than .
It will help keep some of the confusion down.
...Z time is 2322Z or 7:22 EDT or 6:22 CDT
Thanks!
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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i must say i appreciate everyone who has helped me in trying to understand things and also for explainging about how this storm is forming and developing...thank you all for welcoming and i am so greatful i found this site(wish i would have found it last year) again thanks from the Hall family...
Hopefully this year we will be more prepared when my daughters birthday comes around...her birthday is sept 5th and we were stuck in a hurricane shelter last year for her 1st birthday:(...
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
Edited by FlaMommy (Thu Jun 09 2005 11:29 PM)
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Please check the times on any Recon source that you use outside of . I noticed last night that there was a substantial delay, an hour or more, in some of the reports hitting websites other than .
Thanks!
Danny, Last year, someone posted a RECON DECODER here in the forum. I *thought* I got it from Mike or Ed or John sometime after Charlie last season. I can't find it anywhere now. Do you still have a copy?
Richard
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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No question in my mind the GOM can support a Cat 1 or weak 2 cane.... albeit the GOM temps are not all that deep like they would be in the peak of the season, as long as it doesn't create any upwelling by stalling the temps are there to support minimal cane development.... now will every thing else be in place for support????
shear, good stacking, outflow, moist air....
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Does anyone have a link to the recon decoder ? I just got a new laptop and want to install it asap
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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MikeG
Unregistered
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looks to me the models are back to the right, over the fl panhandle
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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What "models" do you speak of?
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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