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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #36891 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:13 PM

well here in Riverview, FLorida outside of Tampa, the wind gusts are only at 14 mph...and the rain is coming and going...how bout you others?

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Littlebit
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: FlaMommy]
      #36892 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:14 PM

Same weather in Plant City as in Riverview.

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #36893 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:15 PM

Quote:

Jim Cantore is in Pensacola, that cinches it for me!!!!!




That means Pensacola is safe and will not get hit . Cantori deflects storms

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: FlaMommy]
      #36894 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:16 PM

Sunny and beautiful here in Mobile !! Personally, I'm thinking P'cola and east is going to get the worst of it, and we're just going to get a little rain.

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Kandi
Unregistered




Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: FlaMommy]
      #36895 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:21 PM

I am at work in Clearwater, FL and it is quite windy and rainy. Probably make for a nasty commute home(Palm Harbor). I love to read all the good posts and consider it a must to check in all during the day. I can't even hardly get any work done. It is just now pouring buckets of rain as I'm writing.

Kandi


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
My predicition stays :) [Re: Kandi]
      #36896 - Fri Jun 10 2005 05:54 PM

Well i am still sticking to what i said when this thing first became classified - landfall near or just east of Mobile, AL, with sustained winds of 70 - 80 mph - strong TS / weak Cat 1.

Satellite imagery seems to show that she really is trying to get herself together, but the core remains very disorganised, with multiple LLC's still evident on the visible imagery. If only the core consolidated we could see this get stronger, stronger than currently forecast. Expect to see official Hurricane Warnings up within the next 6 to 12 hours.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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KN4LF
Unregistered




Re: The Arlene Situation [Re: MikeC]
      #36897 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:12 PM

#30 Published Friday June 10, 2005 at 6:00 pm EDT

At 5:00 pm EDT T.S. Arlene is now moving slightly west of north at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The NHC has now brought it's official track further east with a landfall near Pensacola, in line with my forecast. Remember that this tropical cyclone is large and disorganized and sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force will impact much of the Florida Panhandle coast tomorrow from about Apalachicola westward, well in advance of the cyclone center landfall.

Also as I've mentioned repeatedly flooding rainfall, a small storm surge and tornadoes are likely east of the landfall location.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: FlaMommy]
      #36898 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:15 PM

Here in Pinellas County, winds have been gusting to about 35mph in occasional rain squalls. Just wet and breezy. A good warm up for the rest of the season.

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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Ronn]
      #36899 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:19 PM

anyone who can answer

what are the chances of Arlene reaching hurricane status before landfall?


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jth at home
Unregistered




Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Ronn]
      #36900 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:21 PM

Center is now clearly evident on sat pick. She is south of all of the action, but some storms firing near center now. Clearly moving NNW. I will stick with a minimal cane and MS/AL border.

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Littlebit
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 47
Loc: Plant City, FL
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Rabbit]
      #36901 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:24 PM

According to Paul Dellegatto at Fox 13 news, about a 60% chance of Arlene becoming a minimal hurricane. Hope this helps.

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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Ronn]
      #36902 - Fri Jun 10 2005 06:52 PM

Other than the tornado our county had this afternoon, it has been very mild here. It is raining.

Only thing worth mentioning is the rain is falling sideways. That became all too familiar last season. I had actually forgotten about it til today.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Heather]
      #36904 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:14 PM

i know what u mean earlier it was raining totally sideways...had to hold umbrella to the side of me....lol....oh well thats florida weather i guess....

--------------------
"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Rabbit]
      #36905 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:18 PM

Rabbit -- 50/50 right now. Could see it reach hurricane intensity in the next 12hr but weaken right before land with the cooler shelf waters. No telling either way, really, but it's got a shot.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Satellite & Winds [Re: Clark]
      #36906 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:33 PM

Clark, what up man? How are things going over there at FSU? Tell Travis I said what up, I haven't talked to him in a couple of weeks.

As far as Arlene goes, I agree it's probably 50/50 at this point. It sure looked like earlier in the day that she would get there as they were bumping the winds up with every advisory. The presentation of the storm is surely looking much better this afternoon, so I could see Arlene hitting the 75 mark rather easily if this continues. The biggest hinderance towards Arlene becoming a cane at this point is probably the forward motion (time).

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
New Vortex...big pressure drop... [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #36907 - Fri Jun 10 2005 07:58 PM

301
URNT12 KNHC 102345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2322Z
B. 26 DEG 32 MIN N
C. 85 DEG 33 MIN W
D. 850 MB 1366 M
E. 55 KT
F. 030 DEG 52 NM
G. 105 DEG 75 KT
H. 992 MB
I. 22 C/ 1413 M
J. 22 C/ 1409M
K. 19 C/ 26 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/2
P. NOAA3 0701A Arlene OB
MAX FLT LVL WIND 75KTS NE QUAD 2307Z
MAX SFC WND FROM SFMR.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Hurricane Guy
Unregistered




Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop... [Re: wxman007]
      #36908 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:01 PM

Then, this is a Hurricane now?!?

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop... [Re: Hurricane Guy]
      #36909 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:06 PM

Not as of the 7pm advisory...maybe by the 10pm (11pm EDT) package....

New Topic...Move it on over...

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Fri Jun 10 2005 08:16 PM)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop... [Re: Hurricane Guy]
      #36993 - Sat Jun 11 2005 01:33 AM

No..Arlene is not a hurricane as of this vortex message. The flight level winds are 75 kts; not the surface. They try an obtain a surface wind when they can; but most of the time it is extrapolated from winds at flight level; and depending on what FL is, depends on what percentage they lower it. Latest 11/0435Z message shows FL winds of 71 kts and they recorded a SFC wind of 57 kts; but 120NE of the center. I suspect if the center was under the convection they might have upgraded her to a CAT 1 storm; but she continues to be disjointed and convection tops have warmed considerably on past few satellite frames. What appears to be the low level center is well removed from it's upper level circulation.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
11/0615Z - Arlene, new center? - MCC movg due W [Re: MikeC]
      #37002 - Sat Jun 11 2005 02:14 AM

So many centers..and now at 11/0615Z, another possible new center and it's moving due West along 27.5N. Looks like 2 distinct centers, one devoid of TSTMs, the other the new MCC moving due west inside a larger cyclonic envelope. I was about to write, I'm sticking with Mobile-Pensacola, but this has me scratching my head. I don't see anything in the upper air environment to change the NNW course towards the coast...the 200mb ridge has strengthened over FL and SE USA as her outflow indicates; but 850, 700 and 500, show continued slight weakening or neutral heights over past 24 hours. I can't imagine what the NHC boys are thinking now...so many centers; which one? Safe to say, this is a storm we don't concentrate on the center; the action is well away from the center at the moment with the exception of this new development.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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