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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 233 (Idalia) , Major: 233 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 233 (Idalia) Major: 233 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: jth]
      #36768 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:39 AM

There are no "up to the minute" sats...sometimes NWS will run a Super Rapid Scan mode that gives one minute imagery updates (but with some lag), but there are not running SRO for Arlene. There is a link to the RAMSIS page at the bottom of the main page where rapid scan loops are displayed.

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Jason Kelley


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: wxman007]
      #36769 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:41 AM

Thanks..These 15 minute delays are killing me.

What are your thoughts. Still pretty much in line with the NHC?

That center sure looks west of 85 to me. Nuch much different I know.

Edited by jth (Fri Jun 10 2005 11:42 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: jth]
      #36770 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:42 AM

Just want to post a few quick points here. Everything that most of us mets or future mets have said with Arlene has happend. She has strengthned in the se GOM, still dry air on its sw side, ( as said was going to be back 3 days ago) and a possibility of her making it near hurricane strength at landfall. My forcast still stands at a Panhandle hit. Most of the worst of the weather will be from near the center and to the east of the system. This is typical in GOM storms of this status.
On a quick model note: Consistance is a key to a good model, but sometimes the model on each storm will perform different. Currently if you look over the last 6-8 runs, the BAMM has been most consistant. The 12Z models right now coming out already have Arlene alittle too far to the west near 85.5 (matters which model) by 8pm tonight. That wont happen unless she moves NW now. Anyways I agree a track simular to the BAMM but alittle to the west.Again its going to be the weather near the center and to its east will be the main factor. Pressure should continue to drop into the evening. scottsvb


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: wxman007]
      #36771 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:44 AM

is this a surface obs near the center?
what's the obs?

looks to say pressure 1002
winds nw at 40?

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: wxman007]
      #36772 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 AM

I've been watching the sat loops for a little while now, and it looks to me like she's tracked a little more W than N over the last few frames. Though, she's still so disorganized it's hard to see any definite movements. Like had been stated previously though, a stronger/more organized storm would probably track more north and landfall would shift a bit east. A less organized one and the track would be more to the west.

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Check the Surf


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: wxman007]
      #36773 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 AM

Per the sat I see the overall 'vortex' North of western Cuba heading northerly. It appears to have started 'racing ' directly northward.

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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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AMK
Unregistered




recon info [Re: LI Phil]
      #36774 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:48 AM

Does anyone know when recon is expected to check this storm out again? Im curious to see the new pressure readings...thanks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: jth]
      #36775 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:48 AM

Look how much NHC has changed model over the last (BRIGHT RED) http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
Re: recon info [Re: AMK]
      #36776 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:52 AM

Storm: Storm Arlene: Observed By AF #305
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 56KT (64.4mph 103.7km/h) In E Quadrant At 07:37 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 50.4KT (58.0mph 93.3km/h) * (Report Time: 10/1146 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 22.2N 85.0W 012 KT (13.8MPH 22.2km/h) [10:41:00Z to 10:55:10Z ]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 23.5N 83.7W 042 KT (48.3MPH 77.8km/h) [11:04:40Z to 11:22:20Z

Part of recon data, not all


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: recon info [Re: AMK]
      #36777 - Fri Jun 10 2005 11:55 AM

The storm appears to be enhancing in the NW quadrant. Still, it seems to be too close to Florida to allow it to strengthen much if it races through the gulf. But, anything can happen to change the scenario.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: recon info [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #36778 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:02 PM

Too close to florida to strengthn much you say? Remember Charley last year,, about 100 miles further to the east. Went from 115 to 145mph in 6 hrs? I could be off a tad or not. I sound like Yoda,,hehehe.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #36779 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:06 PM

You mean that last bright red line is where they expect landfall?

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: recon info [Re: scottsvb]
      #36780 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:07 PM

But Charlie, as I recall, was a mature storm when it entered the gulf; didn't appear as ragged as Arlene. Remember also that Arlene is handicapped in the SW quadrant- nada. There is no 'enclosure' and may become less viable with landmass interaction.

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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Fri Jun 10 2005 12:08 PM)


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Back for Another Season [Re: scottsvb]
      #36781 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:07 PM

And it looks like we could get the worst of this one!!! So much for golf this weekend!

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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
possibilities [Re: scottsvb]
      #36782 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:09 PM

probably will be between strong tropical storm and weak hurricane...

however....what is interesting about these storms is their unpredictability. I love going out on a limb and predicting the worst. Not sure why....maybe it goes back
to my childhood. probably need therapy...ha!

think it could still blossom a little...appears to be wrapping around itself...we all know what the GOM can do...

what are the potentials...given the SST's, and the wind shear....and the dry air to the west?...

the dry air is backing off a little...and it appears to me the storm is starting to get it's act together....

we shall see....

let's have fun and make predictions...

mine...
Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

subject to change


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100 [Re: Colleen A.]
      #36783 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 PM

Just the track in general as well as Landfall, and if we all don't have enough to talk about. There are 2 tropical waves over the Atlantic Basin. One tropical wave located near the 35/36 west line and 15 north moving west at 10-15 knots; no deep convection is associated with this system. A large wave is along the 74/75 west line with the extreme north portion extending over Haiti. The wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots. There is numerous strong convection associated with this system over northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: recon info [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #36784 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 PM

Your right but everything leads us to believe that she can make it up to hurricane strength in the next 12 -24hrs. She always had the dry air to her w and shes been holding her own. Her center was broad with many vortexs rotating inside. Pretty much she is alot healthier then 12hrs ago.

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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Back for Another Season [Re: FlaRebel]
      #36785 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:12 PM

Any idea when she is going to move farther to the West?? I mean, it looks like she is right off the W. Coast of FL. We honestly can't take any more rain. As Colleen can probably agree with me on this, the road have sitting water in them already. I can't even begin to think of what one-two more days of heavy consistant rain is going to do.

Anyone watch Fox News? They make it sound like this is the end of the world. They are so darn dramatic when they show coverage of the storm. I have no choice that is the channel that is on in my face here at work, but give me a break.

I do wonder how much stronger she will become before making landfall. I didn't think she would be more than just a rain maker but I might have been wrong


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: possibilities [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #36786 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:12 PM

Tampa would be horrified with that prediction; I'm betting on Apalachicola as a strong TS.

--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: possibilities [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #36787 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:13 PM

I will stick with my prediction that I made at the begining of the week Pascagoula MS 80 mph

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