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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: possibilities [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #36788 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:14 PM

No reason to change prediction. This storm has behaved nearly exactly as expected. MS/AL border as a cat 1.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: possibilities [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #36789 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:16 PM

Quote:


mine...
Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

subject to change




What the.....?! Watch out Colleen...LOL


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: possibilities [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #36790 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:16 PM

Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

Hahaha, ROBIM!

I've been staring at loops for so long and I still can't figure out where the center is. One loop it looks like it's headed due north, another loop looks like might have just crossed 85.

And another loop, all I see is a big red/purple blob headed towards the west coast of Florida...closer to the coastline than I would like.
Can anyone tell me what the heck where the center actually IS? Is it a jog to the west? Heading North still?
I'm throwing in the towel on this one!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: possibilities [Re: Colleen A.]
      #36791 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:19 PM

I believe it may be either on 85 or just crossed over it. It is still fairly broad, so it depends on where in the center you decide to call it.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: possibilities [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #36792 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:21 PM

Don't worry, Skeetobite...Rick's just stirring me up, getting me lighten up! Apparantly, I look good dressed in the Cone of Death.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: possibilities [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #36793 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:22 PM

i been watching the lastest vis, and i think she just threw out another swirl in the last few hours and looks like she is trying to get another center up under the convection to the ene of the center. Storms fired up this morning to ene of center but now have weakened, cloud tops have flattened and appears she is up to something now....holding her own. I just have a hard time thinking the dry air over on the west side of her will weaken enough for to much more strengthening, but the ships model calls for it, so will see. Then again its JUNE in the GOM...will have to see

GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative scroll down and check out the Goes East St. Rel...appears that the RSO will stay with severe weather today in plains

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 10 2005 12:34 PM)


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
watch the visible loop [Re: Colleen A.]
      #36794 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:22 PM

if you look at a high definition visible loop...you can see the center clearly, and also see CDO clouds head somewhat circular closer to the center...kinda wrapping around itself......

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: possibilities [Re: jth]
      #36795 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:26 PM

Shift everything a little to the east folks.Here in Ft Laud winds are up as is the rain.Someone already died at south beach.Very rough surf.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: possibilities [Re: Colleen A.]
      #36796 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:27 PM

The center is more or less a conglamoration of all of the little vortices spinning about...probably three in total, one that has been really visible on the SW side of the storm this morning. The broad center is probably just east of 85W and just south on 25 N. If one of them could ever take over or they converge into one true center, we could see some development of the storm. Otherwise, in a weaker state it will remain.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: possibilities [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #36797 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:28 PM

That center is too broad to evolve into a hurricane; unless storms fire up in the SW quadrant and the vortex decreases in size; then, I agree it would have a good shot at hurricane 1 status.

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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: possibilities [Re: jth]
      #36798 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:35 PM

I omitted so many frames I only had 1 to look at

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: possibilities [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #36799 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:36 PM

Hard to believe it is only June 10th,and we already have a death due to a tropical system.Flood watch extended to Sat morn.Gust 34mph from the ESE

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: possibilities [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #36800 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:36 PM

latest vis....just south of 25 sat vis

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Raincoat
Unregistered




Re: possibilities [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #36801 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:41 PM

Watching cloud patterns off the Gulf for sometime now I think it is very likely it could sway more easterly and suprise us.

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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: possibilities [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #36802 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:41 PM

Yes...I believe the one at 25/85 appears to be taking over and moving NNW to NW. Looks to be wrapping around nicely as well.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
death [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #36803 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:45 PM

Quote:

Hard to believe it is only June 10th,and we already have a death due to a tropical system.Flood watch extended to Sat morn.Gust 34mph from the ESE




hmmm...last year in MAY we had over 3,000 dead in haiti in a storm NHC chose not classify...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Droop31
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 32
Loc: Pensacola
Re: possibilities [Re: jth]
      #36804 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:46 PM

With all this talk about multiple centers and vorticies...Take a look at the 06Z GFDL. It so far has been one of the only models to show this more northerly path into the southern gulf...Plus it shows about 3 little centers inside one larger area of low pressure. I believe the GFDL may actaully have a good handle on this system now. Everyone should take a look. Its more or less exactly what is taking place. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: death [Re: LI Phil]
      #36805 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:51 PM

look at floater and it looks like she is trying the get the center under the storms to the ene. the swirl that was visible this morning was thrown out toward the sw and looks to have faded.

trying to get her act together, but will the dry air to the west let her?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
Re: possibilities [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #36806 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:52 PM

Quote:

mine...
Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

subject to change




Oh Rick...you predicted a Cat 5 when I lived in Mobile now this? Are you stalking me?...just kidding

I hope your wrong though!..


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: possibilities [Re: jth]
      #36807 - Fri Jun 10 2005 12:55 PM

Clark/jason

Do you guys see the center at 25/85 taking over right now. It sure looks that way. If it is, then it appears to have started moving NNW/NW.


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