Arlene remains lopsided, but a bit better organized here just before 7p ET. All of the convection is on the northern half of or well to the east of the storm, but minus one small vortex southwest of the main center, the overall center looks to finally be congealing together somewhat. It's still broad and relatively unorganized, meaning any development will be slow (and thus minimal with landfall in < 24hr), something everyone in Florida is likely thankful for considering last year.
The center is almost due south of Apalachicola right now by around 300 miles, with a decent appearance on Tampa Bay long-range radar (noting, of course, that it is far enough from the radar to likely be a reflection of the lower mid-level circulation and not necessarily the surface circulation). does appear to be moving just west of due north right now, perhaps a sign of the long-predicted shift to a north-northwest track. Were it to continue at this motion, it would likely skirt the cost from Cape San Blas to Panama City; a nudge further west is still forecast, however, bringing the center inland between Mobile and Destin. Areas from Destin to Tallahassee will bear the brunt of the storm in the form of several inches of rain from the storm, with potential flooding in low-lying areas and streams/urban rivers.
Parts of S. Florida may be out of the danger zone from rain shortly; one band remains extending NW-SE across Key West and slowly making inroads to the east, but as the storm gradually moves west, this band too should move west. Two day storm totals of 4-5 inches have been realized near Miami and into the Everglades; offshore totals northwest of the Keys are similar and provide a basis for what those in the Fl. Panhandle may see from here through until Sunday morning.
There exists the potential for some additional slight strengthening before landfall, but that window is rapidly closing. The storm will be nearing shore in the next 12-18 hours and making landfall in less than 24 hours, likely somewhere along the western Florida Panhandle. Those in areas hard-hit by should rush preparations to completion in light of the potential to need to evacuate. While winds may reach near hurricane force at the coast, moderate tropical storm force winds are about all that should be felt inland, leaving the rain to be the largest problem for most structurally sound areas.
Jason will be around tonight & through part of the day Saturday for further updates. I will be heading to Pensacola collecting data and following as it makes landfall tomorrow afternoon. More to come...
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