meto
Weather Guru
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he based it on that it was farther north than was thought earlier and it is still going 9 to 10 miles an hour. or maybe he saw run.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Perhaps, but let's not jump the gun quite yet....if the AVN, , UKMET and start doing the same thing, then that is homing in...this is just one run of a model...it has done well in the past, and horribily on other occasions as well. It simply is another piece of data to look at and evaluate. What we want to look at for the next 2 days or so is not the exact solutions as much as the general trend of all the guidance...is it more east? West? Slower? Faster? and, most importantly, does it look reasonable and jive with what we KNOW is going on currently (what we can direct observe and measure)?
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Jason Kelley
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meto
Weather Guru
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jason key west office said earler that ridge over fla. would weaken, wouldnt that play a roll in forecast.
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bsnyder
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Weather Channel just said it's anyone's guess where Isadore will go when it gets into the Gulf. Said all eyes from Florida to Texas should keep watch. Does that make you happier, Shawn? 
Edited by bsnyder (Thu Sep 19 2002 01:13 AM)
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abyrd
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Loc: apopka
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Four years on the site and I finally registered.
Anyway, wanted to say thank you to Jason for finally letting me feel good about wishcasting.
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ShawnS
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Very well put! I have calmed down and sorry for getting out of hand. I just get so caught up in these storms and how and why they do the things they do. Following weather has always been a passion for me and I would like to think that I at least know SOMETHING about it. I feel like sometimes I don't know anything and I get a little down. If you have had a hobby for years but you are not good at it than what good is it to have that as your hobby. All I do know is that I have seen storms in the same situation as this one and it has gone both ways. I've seen them blow up into huge hurricanes and I've seen them just totally fall apart. The thing I will do right now is just sit back and wait for this one to decide a trend that it will take and go from there.
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troy2
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Loc: cocoa beach
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On a totally different note, or body of water, the 41010 bouy is now reporting wind speed again. So for any future eastern seaboard storms we will have wind speed reports from it.
troy
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StormHound
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I watched as residents were evacuated from the Northern Gulf coastlines as Elena made a beeline north. I watched Elena stall, then a few hours later decide to head directly East. This caused major panic and hurried evacuations on the Western Florida coast. Elena stalled more than 50 miles off the coast. I was some 50 miles inland, and experienced 24 hours of the worst weather I have ever seen. And I have lived in FL all my life, and lived through hurricanes that went directly over my house.
Both times, everyone was certain of the track. Elena finally decided to head back north, and many people were re-evacuated who had recently returned home.
Models and forecasting have improved significantly since then, but not enough. If we had Elena this weekend, no one would be able to tell with any certaintly when, or if, she would turn east. Nor with any certainty when, or if, she would head back north. Had she continued moving a couple more hours at any point, the story would be completely different. We know very little, and pretend to know a lot. We now the weather EXACTLY at one particular spot in every 50 mile area, give or take.
We having varying degrees of knowledge here. But none of us, (no offense Jason) know 1 / 1000th of the knowledge needed to make an accurate forecast of where Izzy will eventually go. We are here to discuss various ideas, and see which ones pan out. This is how we learn as individuals, and as a society. Shawn, you may be right. I'd say HankFrank has as good a chance as you do of being right. Chill. It's ok to disagree. Just don't make it personal. No one else here has.
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Storm Hound
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Floridacane
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Shawn,
You're one of my favorite posters on this site. We're all just a bit nervous right now with this storm. I agree with you, give it to the fish, and have an anti-cane party. Keep posting, we all like your opinion no matter what 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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StormHound
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My beautiful speech is rendered useless as Shawn has calmed down while I was putting it together. Maybe I'll should save it for whoever is the next person to get too excited. 
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Storm Hound
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Fully understood. That's why you have so many posts on here and I have only about 15. At least you have the nerve to throw out a prediction, I'm always reading the site, but just recently have I got the nerve to post much.
Jason, do you think the new was influenced by the further north initialization for Izzy? It seems that 17.2N vs. 19.0N would greatly impact events 120hr out.
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looking at the latest IR loop, the circulation center is quite evident and appears to be nearing 20N, 80W...motion between NNW & NW. The convection is beginning to fire again, with a notable band developing just north of the center. Jamaica is getting another major convective burst right over the island.
Lou....another Floridian closely watching...but not wish-casting.
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Floridacane
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Very funny Stormhound. We could've used that humor a few many posts ago right Shawn, ha ha!
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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StormHound
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The current track of Izzy does seem to be pretty close to the 5pm track. Much more of a NW component. Perhaps the MHC model won't move that much, after all.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It's pretty hard to pinpoint a reason why a model solution changes..most often it is a combination of things, and not just one factor...however, keep in mind that not nearly as much NEW data went into the 18Z as into the 12Z run, so we can narrow down the suspects a bit...I'd say that yes, that certainly played a role.
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Jason Kelley
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Rad
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Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Very well put Jason , Boy everybody is getting tense here . The best thing for everybody to do is to go over there Hurricane list be prepared for the worst, and the unexpected . But just BE PREPARED. Its anybodys GUESS till Friday ,Then I think we will have a better handle on it .
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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elvinp
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Tampa, FL
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I have been lurking for the past 3 days. This site contains so much great information and emotion, I wanted all of you to know how much I appreciate your posts. As a Florida native, I have experienced only a few mild hurricanes. Even Donna did not directly hit Tampa in 1960, but as a kid I remember the downed trees and powerlines and cooking an outdoor grill (with my dad) for several days until the power was restored. It was when I volunteered to help in theSouth
Dade County recovery, after Andrew almost wiped every away, that I understood and appreciated the enormous power of a Cat 5 storm. I want no part of that power. However, I guess I am a wishcaster at heart until I realize that power might hit me, then I get sober very quick. It has been 42 years since Hurricane Donna and although I love to follow them, I don't really want Izzy to visit me. But, if it does I want to be the first one with adequate supplies and protection for my family and neighbors so that we can weather the storm. I want to know I have all the knowledge that I need to protect my family. That is why I really appreciate the knowledge base represented here from the professionals down to the common folks like myself. Thanks, Elvin
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ELVIN
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HanKFranK
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shawn.. think you might have missed my point. yeah ok you were saying western gulf problem and i was inwardly sort of shaking my head, poking fun at you.. but the whole rant about hyping storms was the real focus of what i wrote. look here, its nothing to get your panties in a wad over:
sort of as a joke i said that predicting a storm would affect ya is probably the surest way to make sure it doesnt. if youve been on this site during the last few years, then you know what i mean. then i said thats why i dont (that is, i DID NOT, as some of you didnt catch that) predict a cat five to cross the coast down in wakulla county... 'cause id like to get some holidays next week (and drink about three cases of beer)... and if i say nothing is coming, it probably will. haha, funny funny, right. really it's whistling in the dark.
anyhow, i've been thinking/saying northwest florida because i've been betting that the synoptic picture and climatology would outweigh the 'lets take the storm into the SE gulf and stall it all week' sort of model braindeath move. florida florida everybody says, sensible or not.. but for me it surely isnt wishcasting. im not even from here.
have to admit i can picture it hitting further west on the gulf coast.. but not in houston, not in texas. just look at the global models and notice how a hurricane couldnt get close.. unless it made some weeklong journey into the BOC and then recurved out at the end of the month. sorry man, but im gonna go with eastern gulf.. just so much easier to buy.
actually, despite my happy go lucky banter.. i'm worried. this thing has lots of potential that i can only hope is never realized.
HF 0134z19september
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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the "eye" is starting to show up at about 19.3n/80.0w on the last few ir frames.
Houstontracker
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Who thinks Izzy will be upgraded to a Hurricane at the 11pm update?
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