wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Brett,
It depends on the model...
Most models are run based on 00Z and 12Z data...primarily radiosondes (weather balloons) lanuched at that time. In more recent years, more data such as aircraft reports, surface data, satellite winds, etc, are being incorporated into the model inital analysis. Here is a general guide to run times of various models.
ETA 00Z and 12Z to 84 hrs, 06 and 18Z to 60 hrs.
AVN/GFS 00Z to 384 hrs, 12Z to 240 hrs, 06 and 18Z to 72 hrs
NGM 00Z and 12Z to 48 hrs
UKMET 00Z and 12Z to 144 hrs
ECMWF 00Z and 12Z to 240 hrs
Canadian GEM 00Z and 12Z to 144 hrs
NOGAPS 00Z and 12Z to 144 hrs
Then the track models...
GFDL, GFDN upon request, usually at 00, 06, 12, 18Z to 144 hrs
LBAR, BAM's, A98E, SHIPS, ESHIPS, DSHIPS 00Z and 12Z to 72 hrs.
the RUC is run every hour (hi-res version RUC2) to 12 hrs, or every 3 hrs to 24 hrs.
Every time a model is run, the inital data is changed...so each run is discreet and different.
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Wed Sep 18 2002 08:39 PM)
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I think it was me that posted the coordinates showing a NNW movement about 40 posts ago. No harm, no foul! I'm wrong more often than right! 
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Brett
Unregistered
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Thank you Jason, for shedding some light on the models. I suppose we just need to wait and see what the next runs are, and watch the current track and speed of this Storm. Although I do think at this point Miami is safe, I am not so sure about the rest of Florida. Staying tuned...
Brett
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Isidore taking on good inflow and outflow and looks to be getting better and better structure wise. Probably not much change to strength at 5 pm. Although a little surprised to see some models pulling this further west? I'am still sticking to FL landfall especially if if it moves quicker.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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WTNT45 KNHC 182043
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT SEND A VORTEX
MESSAGE...HIGH-DENSITY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF ISIDORE HAS REFORMED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIX
LOCATION...ROUGHLY WHERE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 59 KT...AND
IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MOMENTS AGO...THE
AIRCRAFT CONFIRMED THE NORTHERN CENTER WITH A NEW PRESSURE OF 999
MB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW UNCERTAIN...SINCE I DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH
OF THE APPARENT TRANSLATION IS MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS REFORMATION.
MY ESTIMATE IS 325/8. I NOTE THAT THE 12Z AVN DID HAVE A SHORT TERM
NORTHWARD JOG PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING. THE
RELOCATION HAS FORCED AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...BUT THE OVERALL THINKING IS UNCHANGED. GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE IS AMPLE HEAT ENERGY BELOW...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
LOOKS GOOD...AND WITH A MORE SOLID INNER CORE CIRCULATION
FORMING...ISIDORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH THE NEW
TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE CUBAN COAST...AND THIS MIGHT BE A SLIGHT
INHIBITING FACTOR.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BYPASS ISIDORE...AND THIS LESSENS THE
THREAT TO SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS CUTOFF ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND TAKE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA
AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW HELPS TO LEAVE ISIDORE IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. SPECULATING A
BIT BEYOND THREE DAYS...THERE IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH MODEL RIDGING IN
THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE UKMET AND AVN TO TAKE ISIDORE SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A LARGE AND POWERFUL
HURRICANE...THE ATLANTIC CUTOFF MAY NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR WEST
AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND THIS COULD MEAN A MORE NORTHERLY...
RATHERLY THAN WESTERLY DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/2100Z 19.0N 78.8W 50 KTS
12HR VT 19/0600Z 20.3N 79.6W 55 KTS
24HR VT 19/1800Z 21.3N 81.1W 60 KTS
36HR VT 20/0600Z 22.4N 82.7W 70 KTS
48HR VT 20/1800Z 23.3N 84.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 21/1800Z 24.0N 85.0W 85 KTS
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_model.html
Good call 50 posts ago Clyde. Again, I'm glad that the Tyco folks are going to jail, but I really prefer studying hurricanes  !
Models pretty clumped in the 12 and 18Z runs if you ask me. Thing is, now that the center has reformed, the next set should be different looking.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I guess that means that the MS coast is in the clear. The models can never agree that well this soon.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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why did recon not send a vortex message?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Just did...
776
URNT12 KNHC 182029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/2029Z
B. 19 DEG 00 MIN N
78 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 313 DEG 54 NM
F. 066 DEG 35 KT
G. 305 DEG 011 NM
H. EXTRAP 999 MB
I. 23 C/ 297 M
J. 25 C/ 308 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 1 /2 NM
P. AF866 0810A ISIDORE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 59 KT E QUAD 1900Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Had a center reformation, so they had some problems finding it.
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Jason Kelley
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
I guess that means that the MS coast is in the clear. The models can never agree that well this soon.
...which is precicely why the has advised ALL GOM interests to stay informed
The fact that most models now show Florida in a 'decreasing threat' scenerio is precicely why I am *more* tuned in than ever....that's where I live....
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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778
URNT12 KNHC 182029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/2029Z
B. 19 DEG 00 MIN N
78 DEG 43 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 313 DEG 54 NM
F. 066 DEG 35 KT
G. 305 DEG 011 NM
H. EXTRAP 999 MB
I. 23 C/ 297 M
J. 25 C/ 308 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 1 /2 NM
P. AF866 0810A ISIDORE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 59 KT E QUAD 1900Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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so, did the center really reform further north, or is is now moving more north--or both?
Misses by storms have been made by a 100 mile jog in the path, hits can be made too. As Steve says, the next model runs will look different. And a stom that was to be 180 miles from Key West, may be only 80 miles to the west now? And a little further east overall....hmmm.
Plus the other big news is the jump from 45 mph to 60 in 3 hours, 4mb drop. Here we go. Coming in closer to Cuba may slow it down.....what if if jumps Cuba?
Jason Kelley, thoughts?
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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are my eyes deceiving me or do I see an eye feature forming right where the center fix was?
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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A little surprised to not see much of a northward adjustment of the forecast track with the center reformation. However, that was a good 5 p.m. discussion and it seems that has a fair handle on this storm. I'm thinking the storm will landfall Cuba a bit further east of the current forecast track and be somewhat NE of the 72 hour prediction. Basing this on the belief that the storm will intensify more rapidly than forecast and thus move a bit more poleward in that timeframe. After that, I'm not willing to speculate just yet...
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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NHC now expects trough to bypass system and there isn't a whole lot I can say about that at this point. True, Isidore has failed to gain enough latitude to be picked up by the trough, and as a consequence, it will likely miss the connection. still has a HUGE error margin area at 72 hours, from Tampa, Florida to west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The only ways Florida could now take a direct hit are:
1. Isidore establishes a sequence of center reformations combined with rapid intensification brings Isidore unexpectedly close to the Florida SW coast. This scenario is possible, and we will have to watch to see if a northerly trend continues.
2. Isidore itensifies to a category 4 or 5 hurricane and dictates its own path by establishing its own steering currents.
Scenario one is possible but not all that likely in my opinion and scenario two is almost completely whacked and nearly impossible at this time.
So, it looks as if this storm will likely not directly hit anywhere in the Florida Peninsula. If Isidore fails to keep moving northward tonight, a storm that was once considered a great threat to Florida (yesterday) becomes a greatly-reduced threat.
I will stress one thing: Until this storm is well north and west of us, don't take your eyes off of it. Mother nature does occasionally pull surprises. It appears that once again a trough (or a lack of one, as in this case) has spared Florida again.
The northern and western GOMEX coasts now face an increasing threat from what could be a very intense storm.
Kevin
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I would guess the centre actually did reform, rather than head north. I think this because the new location is under deeper more persistent convection. This has been in place most of the day, with most convective activity to the north and east of the previous LLCC. Because of the fact the old LLCC was not under the convection so much, i reckon this was a reformation and not just a straight forward northward motion.
Isidore is gonna have the land mass of Cuba to contend with in the next 36 to 48 hours. I would guess that it will be a good C1 if not a C2 at landfall. The question is how quickly the centre crosses Cuba, and how much effect the land has on the structure of the system. Of course, some weakening is likely, but expect Isidore to still be a hurricane when he leaves the north coast of Cuba. Track after that gets difficult, with a number of schools of thought already mentioned. I think that Isidore may stall out, or become quasi-stationary in the SE GOM, possibly taking a loop. Once steering currents take effect again it will probably carry the storm to the N or NE. I still think we will see a Gulf Coast landfall near where Hanna moved onshore last week as i posted earlier.
Rich B
StormWarn2000
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I love it when they actually take time to "Discuss" in the discussions. We had a good one with that 11pm Hanna discussion and now a good one with the 5pm Isidore. They answer questions and put ideas out there rather than dictating the game. Thumbs up for some better work out of the TPC this year.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Well, Until I see something matching the forecast, I moving into "show me the vector" mode. This is starting to remind me of the system a couple of years ago across that went across South Florida even though the models said it wouldn't. Until I see that definate motion more NW, I am not buying the decreasing threat to South and Central Florida in the discussion. I'm skeptical of the comment on the AVN. I have yet to see a model forecast a reformation of a center. Plus, I hate it when they say that recon can't find the center very well. There are too many odd things going on here for me to put a lot of faith in this latest advisory. Show me the vector! When Izzy starts to hit it, I will start believing. Until then, I am a skeptic.
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Jim
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Rich are u saying that The alabama flordia area may be hit again or the panhandle. Im all for it to but just not a serious hurricane. I have been kinda thinking the same as u the whole time about landfall around the mobile, penscola area.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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your right rasvar, unless im looking wrong from where it was earlier to now its gone north not a bit west, however it got there. key west weather said a while ago that ridge over fla, would weaken friday. that with trof coming it would make it less likely to go west. also look at where it is now. if it goes nw it gets closer to keys and west coast of fla. than earlier because its farther north than earlier.
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