AMK
Unregistered
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The new wave off Africa looks potent, especially for this time of year, but no doubt it will meet a watery grave soon as this is mid june. I sometimes wonder if strong waves coming off the coast in june is a portent for August and September
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Phil -- since there have been good records (1880s or so), we haven't had a system form more than about 10 deg east of the islands in June. Even if you cut it back to just the satellite era, it's still pretty darn unlikely to see something that far out. If - IF - anything were to try to get going, it'd have to stay at a pretty low latitude: upper level easterlies encroach down to about 15 N. Shear is pretty strong down to 10 N, too. Waters are warmer than normal for this time of year, but still not really supportive until you get to about 40 W. It's an oddity, especially with such a nice convective burst, but not really anything to be concerned about.
The W. Caribbean Sea storm doesn't have a surface signature yet, after all. A QuikSCAT pass from about 8p ET tonight didn't really even show a low-level trough. Winds are kicking in the convective areas, even up to 40kt in some cases (non-rain flagged), but no hint of anything at low levels. If it develops, it'll meet the expanding weakness in the ridge and move off towards the north and east; if not, whatever remains may head up trudging west, but since this convection is at least partially upper-level induced, there may not be a lot left to go west. We'll see, but anything that threatens the eastern Gulf in the next week is more likely to be a separate feature than anything else.
Other than that, not much to touch upon. Like HF said, we'll know more once we get some vis images in the morning & recon out there in the afternoon. To follow up on the post about these things forming more often that not in the Caribbean Sea: these sorts of convective clusters can tend to spin-up low level circulations -- it follows naturally out of meteorological principles -- but it doesn't always happen. The longer the convection persists, the better the chance of something spinning up. After that, it's up to the environment to see if the circulation can get going...and really, right now, it's not all that condusive. I tend to agree with HF's explanation on the situation, though, so I'll leave it to his discussion for more.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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your el nino or active theory is an interesting one
i agree that it probably favors a more active season, because in 1997 the EPAC had 3 storms by now; currently they have had only one, and none this month and there is nothing likely tor form
1996 in the Pacific also started out rather quiet in terms of not having a named storm at all until June 22, and there were 8 storms that year and in the Atlantic there were 13, and nine were hurricanes and six of those were major
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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(Standard disclaimer, IANAM... yadda yadda)
Well, at the moment it looks like there are 2 interesting features on the board. The first, most obviously is 92L. There is good mid level turning that remains noticable even in the night time hours, but there is still no evidence of a LLC. Also of interest, it looks like over the last few hours , a piece of energy broke away from the circulation and went racing off to the north east. The center seems to be moving to the eastand away from the shear that's currently giving it fits. It looked like an outflow boundry happened about midnight Zulu. and the north western complex seemed to die down a bit. The piece of energy that was ejected appears like it's going to miss Haiti and head into the Atlantic. from there who knows?
The remaining convection is struggling a bit at this point, partially from shear, partially from the night time convection, however enough is hanging in there to make things interesting in the morning. it's possible there is some sort of LLC around 15.5 N 75W, but I'm hesitant to say so, simply because there is no way to know until a plane can get into the thunderboomers. I'd say there's no way they'd find a depression tomorrow.
An interesting point was made that a possible LLC was forming around 15N 77W, or just to the east and south of the storms. again, this is all little more than speculation on my part, reading those tea leaves so to speak.
Now, is it possible the ejected thunderstorm complex could hold together, and make something in the atlantic? I suppose, but... just seems so... unusual.
Now the pretty pretty wave that just came off of africa, the only thing that is keeping me from absolutely discounting it, most of the energy is south of 10N, which by itself means that most likely it's too close to the equator to form into anything, but it has a better shot down there than north where shear and cold water would kill it (in the east atlantic, anything north of 14N is in sub 25 dec C water). So, it's extremely unlikely, but not a bad one to peek and go, oooh, in a month we'll really start worrying about these suckers.
Collectively, I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 shot that something will form from one of these systems, the odds that 2 out of the 3 turn into something tropical or sub tropical is about 100 to 1, and all 3? Sorry, vegas doesn't give odds like large. 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Taz - Thanks for the weblink. I have an account with SnapFish which I think is similar to the one you posted either way, I have your email address so if I have a problem, I will send you a note.
Guppie - I have been having a horrible time with lizards and these little black things some people call roaches - I think of them more as the devil himself personally. Seriously, how come when I was little and you would see one they were the size of my pinky and now...they are the size of a cat? ANd when did they grow wings - explain that to me? I called the Pest Control and he told me that they have been getting a lot of calls about them as well. So, I guess I am not alone. The only time they seem real bad is right after a good storm, which seems to be a daily thing here lately. At any rate, I can handle, snakes, frogs and other little creatures so, I will trade ya.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Greetings all - - The discussion about vermin, insects , etc. is very interesting. In St. Cloud we have noticed that the squirrels are nesting lower in the trees, a starteling absence of early season love bugs, and slugs in abundance in, on and near the house. Last year, after Charlie, we saw the same kind of behavior before , and then no bugs at all (except mosquitos) before Jeanne. Has any research (other than the much published atmospheric pressure studies) been done on this or is it only folklore?
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vmibran
Unregistered
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The hurricane hunter aircraft that was scheduled to visit this system has been cancelled by the .
035
NOUS42 KNHC 141330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-018
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 14/2000Z IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CANCELED BY AT 14/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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I am not sure if there is any research on insects and hurricanes but there is ancient indian folklore relation between actions of sea turtles and hurricanes. Here is a story from the Florida times in Jacksonville about how the sea turtles didnt nest but Fleed JAX in 1964... The year Dora came ashore Jacksonville.
http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/053099/met_1f1dora_.html
This year, there is concern that the sea turtles are not nesting for some reason 
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/060805/nes_18927559.shtml
Also, there was mention of sea turtles nesting on higher ground last year in South Fla and they are noticing the nests are even higher this year.
http://www.wftv.com/news/4583160/detail.html
May or may not mean anything but is interresting to say the least
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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So..while we are all looking at the Carib, whats that I see in the BOC?? NIce circular blob, looks like a circ down in the bottom...but what is that weird rope cloud like structure stretching NNW from the BOC blob>??
Seems like both 'systems' are being ventilated by troughs to their NW...maybe the trough will bypass the BOC feature and it will fester.....
I understand why they cancelled the recon (just like pre-Arlene) , but, sure seems like something is firing up....
MM
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Benjamin
Unregistered
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Good observation mapmaster, for I was wondering the same. The disturbance in the BOC could be temporary since convection has only been present with the tropical wave for about 3-4 hours. Even if it does manage to develop it is moving west at 5-10 mph according to which would mean an impending landfall near Veracruz. However, it is certainly as interesting as anything else going on.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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I know everyone is interested in what could be upcoming Bret but I finally got the pictures downloaded from the party Saturday...Taz, this should work. THanks for your help!
http://www.snapfish.com/share/p=807141118769190287/l=50892784/otsc=SYE/otsi=SALB
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Clark
Meteorologist
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No real circulation there (yet at least) -- this morning's QuikSCAT over the region caught the convective area to some degree, missing the eastern edge, but hinted at some turning in the winds. However, the vis satellite only shows a very, very weak turning just southwest of Jamaica...not even sure I'd call it a circulation. Nothing on the south end of the convection either, but again that could be a "yet." Something may try to get going there, but there's a fair bit of shear in the region...anything you see will probably end up like the little swirl mentioned above in a fair amount of time.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Well, thanks for sharing, it appears she did pretty well for herself. Adorable, she appears to have a bit of independence as well, lol I also meant to tell you regarding your avitar, just copy/paste into Powerpoint, crop and save it as a new image and then upload
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Thanks Taz...I have powerpoint at home but my computer has a nice little virus that has decided to stay with me for a while so I will see if one of the girls in the office has it on her computer so I can do that. Yeah, she made out - she is spoiled. My only one and it is my job. I wanted a princess and got a tom boy instead. Figures. Oh well. You will see her someday I am sure of it. She is already facinated by weather.
Tunder mommy - tunder...can't figure out how she learned that...
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Perhaps the environment will become favorable in the next day or two? I believe the High pressure system in the GOM will help grow this system into something worth following up.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Storm Cooper
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Post deleted by Storm Cooper
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Wasn't it already 92L...?
HF posted about it at the bottom of page three...13th....
MM
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Storm Cooper
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You are correct....I read right past it. Thanks.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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looks like we have a developing la nina SSTs
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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La Nina would be responsible for much rain in the Florida area. How strong is this La Nina?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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