MikeG
Unregistered
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interesting that the in 108hrs-144hrs trys to bring a feature (small) into the gulf, just like did last week, but it kills it in central GOM., note this is a long way out...and its so small, there appears to be nothing to it.
GFS GFS 2005061512
hey the radar shows what looks like a surface low (93L) just of the coast to the se of tampico.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Thats what I'm waiting on to see if they are going to start running them at 1600Z. If they do then I will be posting them
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Code:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050615 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 0600 050616 1800 050617 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.7W 19.6N 96.5W 19.9N 97.0W
BAMM 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.8W 19.4N 96.7W 19.6N 97.4W
A98E 18.6N 94.6W 19.4N 95.9W 19.9N 97.0W 20.2N 97.9W
LBAR 18.6N 94.6W 19.2N 95.7W 19.7N 96.7W 20.3N 97.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 24KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050617 1800 050618 1800 050619 1800 050620 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 97.3W 20.1N 97.9W 19.9N 98.9W 19.1N 100.8W
BAMM 19.8N 98.0W 20.1N 99.6W 20.5N 102.3W 21.1N 105.6W
A98E 20.4N 98.3W 20.9N 98.7W 21.4N 99.5W 21.2N 101.5W
LBAR 20.8N 98.2W 22.2N 98.8W 23.7N 99.8W 24.2N 101.0W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 44KTS 40KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 94.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 93.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Code tage was the only way i could keep the spacing
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
Code:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050615 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 0600 050616 1800 050617 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.7W 19.6N 96.5W 19.9N 97.0W
BAMM 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.8W 19.4N 96.7W 19.6N 97.4W
A98E 18.6N 94.6W 19.4N 95.9W 19.9N 97.0W 20.2N 97.9W
LBAR 18.6N 94.6W 19.2N 95.7W 19.7N 96.7W 20.3N 97.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 24KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050617 1800 050618 1800 050619 1800 050620 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 97.3W 20.1N 97.9W 19.9N 98.9W 19.1N 100.8W
BAMM 19.8N 98.0W 20.1N 99.6W 20.5N 102.3W 21.1N 105.6W
A98E 20.4N 98.3W 20.9N 98.7W 21.4N 99.5W 21.2N 101.5W
LBAR 20.8N 98.2W 22.2N 98.8W 23.7N 99.8W 24.2N 101.0W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 44KTS 40KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 94.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 93.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Code tage was the only way i could keep the spacing
Here are the runs I got.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Not sure I'd put much stock in those objective aids, at least not SHIPS. Anything west of about 97 W is over Mexico...where anything tropical certainly isn't going to develop! Wouldn't say development is out of the question over water, but I can tell you it won't happen over Mexico, haha.
92L is looking a bit more ragged today, which isn't altogether unsurprising. The area of 93L is broad and extends down into the Pacific...were it not for Mexico, we might have something. As it is, probably a collection of daytime convection moving into shore and weakening through the day & into the night is all we'll get. Worth watching, though.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Clark as expected nomore 92L as the conditions for it never were the ideal for development.
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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92L got the nix a little early.. it should continue to flare is at turns NE ahead of the trough digging in over the east. it may develop another low northeast of the bahamas in lieu of the weak one it spit out over the western caribbean yesterday. it looked somewhat promising over the weekend, but the only potential it has left is a quick-and-out eleventh hour system, and little chance of that even.
93L is ashore. it had a nice signature, but no good over land.
a moisture surge should over the southeast as a trough sets up in the eastern u.s. over the weekend. the central u.s. ridge should build northeast over the top of it, and cause some of the energy to peel back sw.. should force ridging near the caribbean next week. we'll have to watch that another system doesn't get caught in the moisture surge heading for florida in a few days.
HF 0031z16june
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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1st post for 2005, great to be back, looking forward to an active but NOT destructive tropical season, hopefully most will be fish spinners. Saw this in the aftternoon S Fla discussion, could be a water-logged weekend especially Sunday for S Fla.
EXTENDED PERIOD...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH REASSERTING ITSELF FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD...SIGNALING A RETURN TO A
WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. EVEN DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW NEAR
WESTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUNDAY GO BACK TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW IN
RESPONSE. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WOULD MEAN MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTER. SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE WATERLOGGED SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. A
NEW JUNE RAINFALL RECORD FOR NAPLES IS ASSURED IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT AS PROGGED. ITS STILL EARLY AND THE HAS BEEN TOO FAST OF
LATE SO WILL NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY JUST YET BUT WILL
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
TG
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Lar
Unregistered
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There sure seem to be a lot of tropical waves, etc. mentioned in the latest Tropcial Discussion (8:15pm EDT I think it said.). Is that normal, having several waves under observation? Just curious. Check the discussion, if you haven't already.
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Four or five is active, but not really out of the ordinary, and they are spread out from the far East Atllantic to the SW GOM. Conditions are not all that favorable for development of any of them at this point, so they are just interesting weather features to watch.
Bill
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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This mornings early loops look like a horse race to see which wave is going to become our next named system. Everything on satellite looks fiery red. The artists must have gotten a new ink carteridge for their computers!
But, the number of waves out there look more like the end of July than the end of June. I have to wonder if the Indian earthquakes and Tsunamis sped up our hurricane season this year.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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It's amazing how 12 hours can change a forecast. Even though there will be thunderstorms here in the metropolitan area. It doesn't look as wet as last nights discussion. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc....Fort_Lauderdale
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hurricane54
Unregistered
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There seems to be a spin at 19.5/92.5. The covnection has pulled out over the Boc. In has started to center its self near there.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Agreed, the latest vis imagery shows at least some vidence of a circulation, but it seems to be inland which kinda puts the brakes on further development. If the centre can pull offshore then given its current satellite presentation i think we could see something when recon gets there.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 16/1800Z AND FOLLOW ON TASKING
FOR DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CANCELED
BY AT 16/1140Z.
No surprise about this as the center is inland.
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Looks like Bret is in the works east of Florida....and would have been in the BOC if the center were 100 miles further north...this may be the B storm in the EastPAc
IHS,
MM
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Seems to be alittle spinner in the Bahamas area north of central Cuba and that area south, south east of Jamaica has been pretty popular with convection for last few days.....T.D. OR Bret in the workins in the next couple of days in either of these areas??????........Weatherchef
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It appears that all these storms are caused by both a mid/upper level trough from the northern Caribbean extending into the area around the central/Northern Bahamas and a ridge from the mid/upper high in the southern Caribbean extending across Hispaniola north to beyond 32N 69W. Thus the rain- and at present there is no mention of the possibility of a Brett forming.
Oh well.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the 2 PM Tropical Wx discussion. Edited. Discussion in whole is available by clicking the link at the bottom of the post.
Small circulation N of Eastern Cuba does manage to get an honorable mention. But only as a suface low and cyclic in nature.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NW TO NEAR 30N67W. SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTIONS EXTENDS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 66W-74W...GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS MOVING NE ALONG THE AXIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA N TO 32N69W CONTINUING WELL N OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH NEAR 30N46W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 21N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N37W SW TO NEAR 20N52W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 4OW. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N37W NE TO 32N24W....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Teh disturbance east of the Bahamas is more than a trough or a transitory low, has been developing all day. 91L is the main contender for Bret in the near future.
MM
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