Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I would have to agrre w. you, there seems to be just too much going on down there. Maybe too much.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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Steve, Thanks for the input. I do have some agreeances here, but I'd like to explain a little more on why I'm so staunch about the NW Carribean, Central, and Eastern Gulf development during the upcoming week. Complicated patterns aren't always prohibitive to development, but lot's of surface low pressure features or small upper air features can really squelch something from happenning.
In the current case, I'm still seeing something that represents a more "classic" pattern. Waves typically slow down in the western carib. as they come up on central america. It is when energy waves pile up that the chances of development increase. You are right, lots going on at the surface and it is complicated. However, notice the change since this morning. Two tropical waves were definable on satellite. One stretching sw to ne from the Yucatan into eastern Cuba, s. Florida and Northeastward. The second ran from Nicaragua through central Cuba and Northward. These features are pilling up from north to south, and it can be noted that the forward segment of the first wave has shifted from NE-SW to N-S from south Florida down into eastern Cuba and South.
This is just the kind of complicated interaction that can start something to spin up under the right conditions. It's just my beilief that things are moving in that direction considering the upper air features and the wave interaction. Additionally, a lot of the cloud matter being seen to the north and west of this area is nothing but upper air debris clouds and moisture from the E-pac, S. Mex and Central America, but nothing I would consider to complicate of surpress possible development further.
Since it is dark, this wave interacation from Sunday Morning to now can be best seen with shortwave.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir2-loop.html
Thank you for reading, hope I haven't been long winded 
Edited by dem05 (Mon Jun 27 2005 04:23 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Not at all. That was a good post. If you use the SSD/noaa site, you can loop the visible which changes to IR at night as well. The 00Z and take the bulk of the rainfall into the western Panhandle of Florida, but they don't really do anything with it. Something of interest was going to be in the Gulf early week, it's only a question of how much interest. The models show some 3" stretching over a couple of days in the 60 hour period, so somebody's getting wet. I'd bet the Peninsula sees a lot of precipitation as well in the next 24-36 hours. I don't have a call on whether any of the rainfall can get as far west as Texas at this point (I think some energy will end up in Mexico west of the BOC). Hey, it's something to watch at least.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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By the way, here's 94L on mid-Atlantic radar. Looks like Maryland and then Southern New Jersey could get a couple of intches of rainfall in the next half day or so.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kakq.shtml
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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My uncle called earlier from a state park near Virginia Beach. Said it had been heavy showers all day long - but he had no clue and "almost tropical something" was passing over. He just thought it was a rainy day.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Here's a recent, (1102Z)visible satellite photo of the 94L remains. From Monterey.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...MOSAIC_SCALE=15
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