After two storms forming in the same general region, our focus yet again in this early 2005 season turns to the northwest Caribbean, where a tropical disturbance is showing signs of becoming better organized and has the potential for development into our third named system of the season. Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly into the region tomorrow; if current trends continue, there may be something to track by the time they reach the area.
Currently, organization of the wave/disturbance is improving (with a better signature on satellite imagery today), though the area of low pressure in the region is still rather broad. Look for something somewhere near 18N/83W (as of the time of this post) if anything is going to happen in short order. It does have a good bit going for it: favorable upper level conditions and a projected path across the warmest & highest heat content waters in the entire basin (particularly the central Gulf). The 850mb signature is fair to decent, getting a bit better concentrated with time, with the convection showing signs of trying to congeal into banding features -- and, most importantly, showing signs of persisting.
A couple of weak upper-level lows are located to the northwest of the storm, one along the western tip of Cuba and another along the northwest coast of the Yucutan, but are progressing to the northwest themselves and should not play a major inhibiting role on devleopment (unless the disturbance tries ingesting one). If anything, they may be just far enough away to aid in outflow while providing a divergent flow over the storm (all the better to enhance convection). Land will be the biggest factor in the short-term, as the Yucutan lies directly in its path. It could miss and go through the Yucutan channel, but that doesn't look likely at this time.
There's nothing out there to suggest an impact for Central/South Florida, but the entire northern Gulf coast should watch this one over the weekend. The system should move towards the west-northwest to northwest in the short-term, with a turn more towards the north likely once it enters the Gulf. A shortwave trough is approaching the Gulf coast, currently located in central Texas/Oklahoma, but may pass by before the disturbance gets there and only affect the disturbance slightly (intensity and track-wise). After reaching the northern Gulf coast -- in what state of development I'm not sure, but in at least some identifiable state -- the disturbance should make a hard right, likely affecting much of the southeast. Upper & mid-level winds are moving at a good clip across the U.S. now, a stark departure from early last month, meaning an Alberto (2000) or Georges (1998) scenario isn't terribly likely should that path begin to materialize.
Conditions are favorable for something to happen, but I would like to see a bit more model support before going gung-ho about it all. Needless to say, those between Houston and Panama City should be watching this one, as it could throw a monkey wrench into the return travel home after the 4th of July holiday. Stay tuned here for further updates, as we'll be watching it through the weekend, and have a happy 4th of July holiday!
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