Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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DW, couple of questions, any thought that TD#3 pulls in the dry air to the west? Also, the LLC and the ULC of this TD seem to be disjoined??
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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javlin
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Heres an interesting little pic.AFMet over at S2k mentioned maybe location was 21.3N and 88.4W.Now I do not think he would bet his bottom dollar on that yet just some early obs.He mentioned like all of us some more VIS would be nice.Heres the pick I think shows a little of something.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=6
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Tazmanian93
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Very interesting, feel like it is playing peek-a-boo LOL
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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javlin
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It's just a hunch and probably a bad one but I think TD3 is tring to relocate it's center again.Just have to wait and see I guess.These things happen so much in the development stages.
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Storm Cooper
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The is thinking that also per the 10am package.
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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javlin
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Yea Coop there cor. where way SW of what I was thinking I was thinking that 21.3 and 88.4 from earlier is closer that AFMet thru out.I was thinking yesterday if the LLC went over land and weakened could the MLC to the NE take over since it basically stayed over water.
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Rich B
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i think we are gonna see a relocation / reformation of the cene of TD 3 within the next few hours. Visible imagery and surface obs would seem to support a possible relocation somewhat to the northeast of its current position - possibly just off the north coast. if that happens the convection is deeper and stronger there. Recon later will give some definite answers, and might even find Cindy if the core can reorganize.
-------------------- Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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my best guess on t.d. 3 is that the strongest rotation at the low levels will shift to the northern part of the elongated circulation... not an uncommon occurence. the recon this afternoon will probably find that and the forecast track will shift to the right. all of that convection that is moving north over the gulf is probably just an associated disturbance (remember yesterday and the day before a large mass of convection was flaring around jamaica... probably just a weak disturbance that brushed by behind t.d. 3, caught in the deep layer flow. the forecast intensity i'll be ready to nail down this afternoon when recon gets in.. dependent on what kind of center they fix. if 3 has a disorganized core, a fight amongst mini-centers or that sort of thing.. then the globals will prove right and cindy will be weak and move more to the west. if cindy gets reorganized quickly and takes advantage of the very supportive conditions it will encounter for the next 48 hrs.. it will easily come in as a solid hurricane.... probably the middle louisiana coast.
steve-o's playa has some very scary model support right now. it seems that the low pressure associated with it has cleared the venezuela coast, so that non-development option is out.. all we've got working for us to keep this thing from getting going is plain ol' sluggishness or non-development in spite of supportive conditions. if this thing develops in the next 48 hrs, expect trouble. a consensus of models is tracking this system to the eastern gulf by the weekend. it doesn't necessarily have to happen.. this thing could be an earl rather than an .
HF 1642z04july
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 04 2005 11:46 AM)
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HanKFranK
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well, all thinking the same thing. is playing it down.. they're not going to stick a pin in their map showing a reorganization until they're sure of it.
HF 1645z04july
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Storm Cooper
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"steve-o's playa has some very scary model support right now"
That is for sure, more and more each run.
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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FlaMommy
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hi do u have a link to that model? please tyvm
-------------------- "Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Storm Cooper
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Just go the the bottom of the Main Page. You should find all you need. If not let me know.
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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javlin
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TD#3 seems to be getting it's act together some i still do not think that a Cindy by this evening is not out of the question.That said Dora cannot develop to quickly.
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--lysis
Unregistered
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Stupid question... but exactly how specific is the central pressure given in the fourth advisory (1010 mb)? If there are, as has been said, multiple vortices “battling it out”, is the still focusing on a center to the south west? If so... any estimates on what the actual condition of the cyclone is? Did that make any sense?
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HanKFranK
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note in the public advisory they say 'estimated' pressure. that's just what it is. i've checked some of the SFC pressures in the region.. 1014 or so is common.. so 1010 isn't a bad guess. recon will be there this afternoon for something more solid. still not sure why they haven't tasked a flight to the caribbean for tomorrow or wed... and also not sure why i haven't seen an invest on it (i mean, come on, we get invests on little puffs of convection east of bermuda, much less a strong wave with banding structure and a hairpin low on it's axis).
HF 1808z04july
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Storm Cooper
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I think the flight and at least the Invest is on the way as it sure has a good well rounded spin the past hour or so. Looks to be at least a good TD now.
-------------------- Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Lysis
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Sounds good Hank. Hey, anyone on the west coast of Florida... keep an eye out for some high cirrus clouds in the next few hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
-------------------- cheers
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the watcher
Unregistered
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it looks to me that TD 3 is really geting its act together......is it over the water yet?
sure does look like it is.
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Orlando, FL
Unregistered
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97L Invest up for the eastern carribean wave, looks like a TD is about to take form.
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Lysis
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I don't know if anyone cares... but I had time to burn and made this image comparing the size of TD 3 to Hurricane Charely:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/37912-TD3SizecomparasonwCharley.JPG
-------------------- cheers
Edited by Lysis (Mon Jul 04 2005 02:26 PM)
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