schmee
Unregistered
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Katie,
I couldn't believe it! Turned on last night and they were showing storm stories!
I know that it wasn't a huge storm but it still could have been potentially dangerous.
We at least had our local mets to tell us what was happening -- one even came back early from vacation to be on air through the night.
Oh well, I guess no one cares about New Orleans ;-)
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
But I also understand the frustration of NOT KNOWING exactly what it's gonna do. We want answers, and we want them NOW! 
...but Colleen, we *both* know that isn't going to happen....We'll know when the wind starts blowing and not before. The rest is speculation and guesswork, albeit maybe educated guesses, but guesses all the same. Models are toys we play with that with luck, will resemble the real thing, but like a toy airplane, it is still a toy and won't carry passengers, even hamsters 
You are right when you say we souldn't quibble over fractions of an inch on some tracking/forecast chart, especially this far away from possible landfall. , among others, taught us, or should have, that lesson.
Keep your questions, comments and opinions coming...I, for one, enjoy them.
Richard
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Colleen my dear, I think the pucker pressure for posters on the board will slowly start to rise as the intensifies and heads towards the GOM and points unknown.... And I can understand the good people of Florida and their concerns, especially after last year... but sweetie there not much you can do about where it goes except to prepare, which I'm sure you are, or evacuate..... I know this, is NOT going to catch you offguard... that is not going to happen, because you're too smart...
Regardless, I am officially declaring a "pucker pressure watch" for all posters, expect the pucker pressure watch to be upgraded to a "pucker pressure warning" and should be posted within the next day or so.... 
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Cane Watcher
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: ATL/ via Melbourne
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Regardless, I am officially declaring a "pucker pressure watch" for all posters, expect the pucker pressure watch to be upgraded to a "pucker pressure warning" and should be posted within the next day or so....
Thats a great line
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Quote:
Model runs really are vascillating all over the place, while the track is sticking to the east side of most of the guidance. Last night's 00Z took to storm into Tallahassee, quite a bit of an eastward shift. The 06Z was in the same area as well. The 12Z Canadian is even further east, taking the storm up the west side of Florida (very fast, I might add), which cannot completely be discounted as the model has done well this year to date. By contrast, the 12Z and UKMET are both presenting a doomsday scenario for New Orleans. The 00Z -- and most of the other models -- are somewhere in between.
What does it all mean? We really don't know where the storm is going to go, but we can likely pin it down away from Texas now. Other than that, anywhere from Louisiana to the Keys is still very much under the gun, and we won't know a lot more until the storm get closer to land and the surveillance aircraft gets out there to give us some extra data for ingestion into the models.
Thanks Clark...
For myself, being in SW Florida, I'll go ahead and get the generator fueled and ready (just in case). Most of my storm prep I did back in late May.
As was stated earlier...until it passes your lat/long you're not out of the woods..
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
, you know that idiots from every station in the US would be at the place of landfall waiting for a tree to come flying through the air, only to knock them out for that video coverage of how strong the winds are. What's the deal? IMHO, I think every storm regardless of Catagory deserves recognition. People need to be aware that even a TS can pack a punch.
When you get the chance, show some of those media idiots the following picture (thanks to Lysis) http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/historic/nws/images/wea00544.jpg
It is a good example of what *can* and does happen to things stuid or unlucky enough to be in the path of storms unprotected. Sic 'em
Richaard
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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 Pucker Pressure Warning LOL
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I need to buy a new calender,mine is all messed up.There is no way it can be July 6th,must be Sept.6th.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I think it's the eyes, looks to be riding a rail of 15 N
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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It IS prudent, is it not to try to get a heads up, especially when after this comes off Cuba it is about 30 hrs from land fall in some scenario.?..not a lot of time to get things done so some helathy prognosticating is probably a good thing, I think
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doug
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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FtlaudBob - I agree. Is this September 6th? Must be. My clock must be standing still. Glad at least you and I are on the same time frame.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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To me that nbc6 graphic doesn't show a shift to the east - it expands the cone to include pretty much the entire US part of the GOM (At least from Corpus Christi-ish on over to The Keys... and the tip of the Yucatan penn.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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When I take my car to the parking garage,you know SE FL. is about to get hit.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Shana,
If you saw the same map this morning you would see the shift east.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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^k. I didn't see that exact map this am.
That cone looks awfully big to be actually using it to figure out where will be in 5 days tho...
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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It's much harder to forcast the farther into the future they go.Thats why it gets wider.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Why do model discussions refer to moving the path to the right or left, rather than east and west?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Hurricane Freak
Unregistered
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This model has going through Florida....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Quote:
When I take my car to the parking garage,you know SE FL. is about to get hit.
By that line of thinking, North Central FL along the Cedar Key region should start getting ready. Things in my lab have gone great the last 3 to 4 weeks. We've been collecting lots of data. Everytime we've seen this much progress though, something always comes along to ruin it. As yet, we haven't had any equipment failures so maybe will be what puts us on ice? Last years storms cost us almost a month and a half of downtime in the lab.
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Brad Shumbera
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 76
Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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Hello again everyone. Haven't been too active on the site since last season. Glad to see you all again! That model scares the hell out of me, since I live just north of Orlando. Just got my roof done..... just in time........
Angie
Firefighter/Paramedic, Orange County
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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