Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Actually, I was joking about wanting to know NOW...just stressing how much we all hate the "hurry up and wait" mode we're in. We're used to getting information at the speed of light with all our new technology, so waiting for a storm is something that frustrates many people. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Hurricane Freak - um...I could have gone all day without seeing that map. I am sure it is just a guess. Has to be. It isn't coming close to Florida.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Maybe because some people understand left to right better than N/E/S/W . Just a guess.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Remember and Earl went to the south of Jamaica.Dennis should go over or just to the north of Jamica.I do not like this slowing down stuff,It gives that high that may save Florida a chance to move more east. http://www.hurricanealley.net/natl.shtml
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, I will be prepared...my kids are already asking me if they should set up "the closet".  I think the worst part of all of this is "the waiting"...once we actually KNOW where it's going, people seem to calm down and start their preps.
I think you're right the the "pucker pressure" warning going up soon! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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12Z has shifted well west for the , , UKMET. Check out weatherunderground.com for the map.
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Hurricane Freak - This one looks like more of a Western landfall from the one you just posted:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation
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VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX
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Please enlighten those of us who haven't followed this forum until recently as to what the "pucker pressure" means...
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Brad Shumbera
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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What are your opinions on a South Florida landfall - say, in between Ft. Myers and Tampa?? Possible? Or no way for the storm to make that much of a turn to the east or right?
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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UH OH SPAGHETTIOS!!
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Displaced Cajun
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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The hotel where I worked in Brevard County has been out of commision since last October. The renovation is still only half way there and here we go with another huge hurricane season coming our way. With the hotel right on the beach all of us employees get a little nervous when things start picking up in the tropics because of what we went through last year. I`ve been on culinary task force for my company since then. I`ve been Charleston, Jekell Island, Hilton Head, Winterhaven, West Palm Beach and every place I go its the same. Everybody has the jitters. Its amazing, people who did`nt care one hoot about weather before are becoming really involved with every update. Its the talk of the town. .....Good luck all....Weatherchef
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Yes, I will be prepared...my kids are already asking me if they should set up "the closet". I think the worst part of all of this is "the waiting"...once we actually KNOW where it's going, people seem to calm down and start their preps.
I think you're right the the "pucker pressure" warning going up soon!
Agreed, If you have your basic preparation completed, sit back, enjoy the weather and relax! Me personally, I'm heading up to atlanta tomorrow, my air conditioning is out in palm harbor, and it was 89 degrees at 3am. Not to mention I'll be driving back down sunday evening unless the storm keeps drifting east... then all bets are off.
Personally I think Cuba will do something of a number on the storm, which will make it more vulnerable to steering currents. of course, who knows, and it's not time to worry yet 
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Damejune2,
I am not ruling out a SE FL. hit yet.There is plenty of time for this thing to turn north.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I have been reading the 200+ posts made this morning all commenting on this model run vs that model run, with everyone debating the storm's future track. But not one comment has been made as to the storm's strength / structure. I would like some input from some of the more meteorologically inclined folks (you know who you are!) as to exactly what is doing structure wise. My personal (unprofessional) opinion is that the storm looks a whole lot less organised than it did last night. The convection is not as intense (this was even mentioned in the last discussion) and seems to be more ragged. Looking at the visible shot, there hardly appears to be any clouds at all in the NW quadrant....I just don't see any rapid intensification happening in the near future. Anyone else see what I am talking about, or am I not reading this correctly? I know developing storms sometimes go through convective cycles, but the past 8 hours has not seen nearly the convective cold cloud tops we saw last night.
--Lou
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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It's not really a shift for the , but it is a shift for the UKMET and , both of which were further east. We'll see if it keeps up; for now, it's all a part of the models trying to figure out where the storm is going to go. There's still too much uncertainty out there to pin down a single location at this point.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Winds still at 70mph per the 2pm advisory.
The forecasted position for the 2pm point(5am adv. 7/6) was a little higher north and further west than it currently is. I'll be interested to see how much the storm deviates from those forecasted points in the upcoming advisories.
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Check the Surf
Edited by AgentB (Wed Jul 06 2005 06:16 PM)
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Ricreig
User
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
It IS prudent, is it not to try to get a heads up, especially when after this comes off Cuba it is about 30 hrs from land fall in some scenario.?..not a lot of time to get things done so some helathy prognosticating is probably a good thing, I think
Yes, as long as you remember a forecast is a guess, not a promise. We should already be prepared with supplies, by June 1, but we should keep informed all of the time.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The convection is still intense around the storm, but it is going through a reorganization cycle at the moment. Might've seen the effects of slightly cooler waters or slightly drier mid-level air around the system, disrupting the current cycle for the time being, but it's in the process of getting back to the shape that it was....which it'll probably do shortly (within 6hr, I think).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I roger that and I still think S.E. Florida is going to be spared. ( again an unprofessinal opinion).....Weatherchef
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Hurricane Freak
Unregistered
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Quote:
Hurricane Freak - This one looks like more of a Western landfall from the one you just posted:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation
Yes, Because this is another model, I think, they use the same kind of maps but they are different models, yours is
Yes, because this is another model, I think, they use the same kind of maps but they are different models
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