Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Checking in again from Atlanta, and right now Cindy is behaving very badly over Montgomery, Ala. area with 6 counties under Tornado Warnings right now and the bulk of that is heading right for the Peach state. The entire metro Atlanta area is under a flood watch til 4pm tomorrow and the counties to the immediate south of Atlanta are under a Tornado Watch until 8pm EDT, and there is some talk that it may be extended to include the city of Atlanta later on as well. If you have friends in the Atlanta area keep them in your thoughts as we are gonna have a rough 36 hours here with 4+ inches of rain forecast over the area.....What I would'nt give right now for a good ol fashioned fish spinner!
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Not that I am any sort of expert, but I completely agree with Clark that it is premature to proclaim a track shift to the west if goes underneath Jamaica. Although it is true that a jog left or right now often extrapolates out down the road in the sense that the models might be over or underinfluenced by some environmental feature, it is not necessarily the case that the models being off by 50 miles now turns into it being 250 miles off 4 days from now.
This is one of the things that frustrates me most about atificial "straight line models" -- if the forecast point is off by half a a degree today, then people want to "redraw" the same straight line they just had on their charts, using the new point to run from. The consequence is that the error now translates into a massive move down the line when, in reality, the storm isn't following a straight line to begin with and can shift back the moment you go to bed that night.
No pun intended, but experience tells us that an error now does not have a linear effect on the storm beyond now. .
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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You too are in good shape. Frankly, I don't suspect you will have much use for the supplies in St Cloud *this* time around, but if it does get too close, you are ready. You are here, keeping informed, and that is the best thing you can do given you are already prepared otherwise. We might get a bit wet, maybe eve a tad breezy, but I don't think this storm is 'ours'...not that the panhandle needs it to be 'theirs' 
Be safe,
Richard
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John03
Unregistered
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looks like N.O. might now be under the gun?
major shift west? seems the models jumped a little
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Have been lurking all day, thought I would jump into the fray. "Pucker Factor" just jumped 5 levels at work - - employer handed out Hurricane prep guidesheets and emergency numbers for all employees. Standing order is to call in before going in. Probably very premature but this company got caught last year by requireing employees to come to work even though authorities were telling all non-essentials to stay off roads. Oh well - - This is life in FLA 
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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am I crazy, or is getting larger?....(in total sq miles) sure seems like it is growing, which would explain it's reluctance to begin it's spin up....
which just means...of course, we will have a monster on our hands....
I still have a feeling New Orleans is under the gun.....
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
looks like N.O. might now be under the gun?
major shift west? seems the models jumped a little
It has never been NOT under the gun, nor has any part of the GOM. I would start to be 'concerned' when the models STOP moving left and right. When they are this uncertain, it means nothing is locked into stone at this point, and that is good. When they all agree, *then* it is under the gun. For now, the best we can do is play the game and double check our plans and preparation.
Richard
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Based on satellite presentation, I would say that he is filling out, Rick.
Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 06 2005 08:05 PM)
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Have been lurking all day, thought I would jump into the fray. "Pucker Factor" just jumped 5 levels at work - - - This is life in FLA
Yes, it is likely that those that 'raise to the level of their incompetance' (bosses), will be among the first to overreact. Try and be the leveling factor by being alert, aware and educated. Did he tell you how many drops per hour constitute a flood and don't come in? I thought not....I guess they want you to be smarter than they are this year
(Bosses: if you've been prematurely promoted to a level of incompentacy you don't (yet) deserve, ignore the above indictment)
Richard
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Yes, is now beginning to show his muscle. Looks to me to be heading at 300/305 degrees.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Not to move away from , but Cindy amazingly has kept her form today more so than I would have expected after all this time?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
am I crazy, or is getting larger?....(in total sq miles) sure seems like it is growing, which would explain it's reluctance to begin it's spin up....
From 2am this morning to 2pm this afternoon, the winds have increased from 50mph to 70mph. The T.S. force winds have increased from 60mi from the center to 85mi from the center. And it's probably not going to stop there. For comparison, at one point T.S. winds extended outward up to 220mi from the center of .
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Check the Surf
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Tell me about it, Ricreig. Last year, my Dad's boss told him to come to work in lieu of preparing for . When he asked him what he would do about his family, his boss simply told him, "bring the kids with you".
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Wed Jul 06 2005 08:11 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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From NWS MLB AFD
"IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE INHERENT ERRORS THAT OCCUR THIS FAR
OUT IN FORECASTING TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE OPERATIONAL
TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. HOWEVER...
THE ENSEMBLES ARE EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH
ONE PERTURBATION SUGGESTING A TRACK AS FAR EAST AS THE BAHAMAS.
REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE
LATEST OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION."
I don't think anyone will know where this system is going until the air sampling missions send in new data to be fed into the models.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Just an fyi on direction, since became , movement from 05/1745 to 06/1145 1.10 Lat and 3.40 Lon
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Let me clarify what I meant since I suggested that if goes south of a forecasted point Jamaica it meant a definite change in the track...I think that was taken as as determination of some indicator of the ultimate landfall point shifting west which of curse it does not: BUT it will shift those forecast models further left, I bet. They recalculate every 6 hours any way. Hope this helps.
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doug
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Hurricane Freak
Unregistered
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So cute, little monster is opneing his eye.....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html 
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Accuweather has an interesting graphic comparing to and .
Graphic
Note about the image, the forecast shown there is Accuweather's not .
Edited by Jamiewx (Wed Jul 06 2005 08:24 PM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It is almost certain it will become a GOM event- but we will learn more on Thursday.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Jamie - thanks for that link. That is very interesting to see the three side by side. I guess after make his path it will be even more interesting.
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